theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2019 21:29:11

A weak cold front will bring the first non trivial snow to the UK tonight. Looks like its going to affect mostly central and eastern areas. Could give 1-2cm but I'd expect a dusting generally. This is also likely to affect E Anglia and SE England tomorrow morning. A further risk of snow for E Yorkshire, Lincs and E Anglia could give isolated but more significant snow totals in the 2-5cm range when beefy showers return during the early afternoon. These should fizzle during the evening.  Then the weekend offers the possibility of some light patchy sleet or snow for many parts of the UK. Again minimal or small accumulations but it may well be cold enough for a dusting at night.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Crepuscular Ray
16 January 2019 21:49:46
Don't forget to put actual snow reports in the snow reports thread đź‘Ť
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Snowedin3
17 January 2019 09:56:32
From past events, they don’t usually show up until a couple Of days out hopefully we’ll see a good distribution of snow accross the uk this coming week!
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2019 11:50:35

I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Essan
18 January 2019 13:16:25


I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 



IMO the Met Office not-a-forecast is more likely to be most accurate as it's not just based on one model, and has some human input.  I believe the BBC (Meteogroup) one also has some human input.   I think most others are just based on the latest GFS run and should therefore be treated as nothing more than pictorial representation of that model.  


 

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
soperman
18 January 2019 13:28:18

There needs to be a sharp fall in predicted temps before any snow falls over the Chilterns.  Both BBC & Meto show rain this weekend and again next Tuesday with only a fall from 5 to 4 degrees in temp.


Nothing special here and probably need to await for the Easterly - if it develops 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 January 2019 13:28:29

AROME going for an entirely snow event (E and over the pennines). I'd be inclined to trust it. 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2019 14:47:58


AROME going for an entirely snow event (E and over the pennines). I'd be inclined to trust it. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Is that for tonight Q?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2019 14:57:46


IMO the Met Office not-a-forecast is more likely to be most accurate as it's not just based on one model, and has some human input.  I believe the BBC (Meteogroup) one also has some human input.   I think most others are just based on the latest GFS run and should therefore be treated as nothing more than pictorial representation of that model.  


Originally Posted by: Essan 

Yes Andy, the Met Office one tends to be better at forecasting two or three days out and sticks to its guns but the standard app is quite accurate on the day and it updates more often.  The BBC one also updates regularly but tends to nowcast.  We’ll see later which is closest in this instance!  I think it will be rain to sleet!   


Edit - standard app now says sleet and Met O says rain to snow!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Essan
18 January 2019 15:09:39


Yes Andy, the Met Office one tends to be better at forecasting two or three days out and sticks to its guns but the standard app is quite accurate on the day and it updates more often.  The BBC one also updates regularly but tends to nowcast.  We’ll see later which is closest in this instance!  I think it will be rain to sleet!   


Edit - standard app now says sleet and Met O says rain to snow!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 




Nowt but rain showing for me.  And after that, apart from some rain early on Tues, dry for the foreseeable future!    But this is desert!

Hopefully catch some snow on the Brecon Beacons at the weekend though

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
speckledjim
18 January 2019 15:50:08


I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Met Office app quoted rain for me but it has just started snowing

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2019 16:04:40


 


Met Office app quoted rain for me but it has just started snowing


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

To be fair, all the apps are pretty good and never far off the mark at close range.  At least all mine are consistent in forecasting precipitation of some kind and we know snow is the hardest to forecast, so I can’t knock them.  I just want them all to say snow!  


Glad you got snow though!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 January 2019 22:56:46

This looks like it could be quite serious. Still marginal but less than it was this morning.



Potentially alot of snow (or rain) on this.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
20 January 2019 20:39:23

Lots of interest within the semi reliable range well worthy of discussion as regards Monday/ Tuesday's cold front clearance which presents possibilities not only at height in the north west of the UK, but also as it clears SE theres a fair chance that it will turn to snow, so a 50/50 chance of a dusting on the Chilterns and Downs come Tuesday morning:


netwxsr-snow.gif

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
20 January 2019 20:42:16

I also note the Arpege almost brings in a cold NEly to the south east corner by Thursday.  This week looks of great interest to me.


I think there is quite a risk of wintery showers in Kent, perhaps some snow over the Downs during the working week. I must say I much prefer the short range stuff than trawling anything 144+.


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
20 January 2019 21:49:11

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


and this:


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Joe Bloggs
20 January 2019 21:56:53

MetO raw output being quite bullish bringing heavy snow down to low levels in NW England by Tuesday lunchtime. 


Interesting. 


Heres the Euro4 for 12z Tuesday. Glasgow looks best placed at this point. 


https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/20/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012212_2012.gi/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/20/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012212_2012.gif



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Whether Idle
21 January 2019 07:34:59

Chance of a dusting mid week for many.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
21 January 2019 09:01:44


Chance of a dusting mid week for many.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


That’s just the GFS being wildly over the top, it seems to think that 5 minutes of snow after 5mm of rain will magically convert it to 2cm of lying snow!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
21 January 2019 09:31:22
Even in thr best northwesterly winds we struggle with any lying snow away from hills. From the latest charts it looks like showers wont have any oomph about them to cool surface temps and so i suspect it will be more a case of reporting how wintry the showers are rather than volume they put down... if ypubare lucky to get one. Then as quick as the front noves through we have things settling down almost within a few hours.

What a shame.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
snow 2004
21 January 2019 09:42:21
Tomorrow is looking interesting for this part of the world once the front clears. There is the potential for everything but the kitchen sink. If the air is unstable enough we'll get a fair bit of lightning as the cells bump into the Pennines. I'd imagine a warning will be issued this morning.

It could all come to nothing put those doughting the setup, have a look at the 29th January 2015. That brought 3 inches of snow in just one hour here as the showers banded together. Even places like Stockport/South Manchester had proper snow.
Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
KevBrads1
21 January 2019 10:29:13
Remember that 29th January 2015 event.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Whether Idle
21 January 2019 10:37:16

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Polar Low mischief in 48 hours?


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Joe Bloggs
21 January 2019 11:25:45

06z Euro4... 6am Wednesday. 


This is normally quite conservative so I'm surprised by this.


Decent snow cover for Glasgow, with snow cover possible in Manchester, Birmingham and parts of the SE.


https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 


Snow accu. EURO4 We 23.01.2019 06 UTC


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
21 January 2019 11:54:46
I have found that the Euro4 can often overdo the snow in certain circumstances, but nonetheless I believe it looks decent for some parts, most notably in the shower NWly following the front. Here? A little drizzle then dry!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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