Accuweather's Autumn forecast

Windstorms to arrive early and pack a punch for the United Kingdom, Ireland

Parts of the British Isles had a taste of autumn in August as wet and windy weather struck the region on multiple occasions. As autumn progresses, the threat of significant windstorms will be on the rise across Ireland and United Kingdom. Impacts from the storms will occasionally spread farther south and east impacting locations from northern France to Netherlands and Denmark.

These windstorms will bring the risk of power cuts and significant travel disruption. Downpours from each storm will also elevate the risk of flash flooding. "Any one windstorm could lead to widespread impacts and damage for a small area," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. "The problem with early-season windstorms is that leaves are still fully on trees, which increases the chances for tree damage and impacts to transportation," he added.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

Met office 10 day trend

Next 5 days

Low pressure
Rain at times
Breezy and cool

Days 6 - 10

High pressure
Drier
Sunnier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3LQ-YSit-c

Tuesday 20 Aug - Thursday 29 Aug

Tuesday will be cool and bright with a mixture of sunshine and showers, although winds will be lighter and showers less widespread. Thereafter, there is a trend for the weather to become more settled across many parts of the UK as high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow increasingly dry and bright weather to develop with rain and strong winds generally becoming confined to the north and northwest. After the cool start to the week, temperatures will begin to recover and the days will feel warm. However, the nights could still be chilly at times. During the remainder of the month pressure is likely to remain close to the west or southwest bringing settled and warmer conditions, especially to southern areas.

Friday 30 Aug - Friday 13 Sep

Confidence is rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the British Isles. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 21 Aug - Friday 30 Aug

Wednesday starts cool and bright with isolated showers in the northwest. Many other places should have a mainly dry day with sunny spells but rain may move across parts of the north and west. The end of next week and following weekend is uncertain but probably sees spells unsettled of weather, mainly across the north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions continuing elsewhere. Temperatures will recover to near or above average by day, but with some chilly nights. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close to the west or southwest bringing periods of settled and warmer conditions, especially to southern areas. The north and northwest may still have occasional bouts of wet and windy weather which may extend to other areas at times.

Saturday 31 Aug - Saturday 14 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the British Isles. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Bank Holiday weather: Blustery showers and no heatwave in sight

Further blustery showers are forecast for the next few days across the UK and forecasters have dampened hopes of a Bank Holiday heatwave. This weekend will see more sunshine than in recent days with maximum temperatures set to be 21C (69F) in the South about around 19C (66F) in the North.

Forecasters say there will be a "gradual improvement" in the weather over the next week but it is unlikely next weekend will see temperatures soaring.

https://news.sky.com/story/blustery-showers-and-no-bank-holiday-heatwave-in-sight-11787117?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming less unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 17 August – Sunday 25 August

Changeable with spells of wet and windy weather

After a fairly windy and wet weekend for some areas of the country, next week is likely to start on an unsettled note as low pressure remains nearby. Monday will be breezy with showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain, although it doesn't look as wet or as windy as recent days. A weak ridge of high pressure building across the UK means that Tuesday will be drier and calmer with widespread sunny periods and just a few scattered showers. Wednesday will start dry for many areas, but an Atlantic low will push cloud and rain across many areas of the country by the end of the day, with winds also likely to pick up across the north of the UK.

Thursday also looks unsettled and showery as the low pressure system remains nearby. In our last update it looked likely that high pressure would build across the UK bringing drier, warmer and calmer weather to most areas in time for the weekend. Whilst that pattern still looks possible, it now seems more likely that we will see low pressure continuing to be the main influence on our weather, and the unsettled conditions persisting into the weekend. It is worth noting that there is greater than normal uncertainty in the forecast for the end of next week, so we may yet see a drier and sunnier weekend.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Probably drier and warmer, but a chance of rain

The last few days of August and first day of September should feature some relatively fine and dry weather as high pressure has more of an influence on the weather across north-west Europe. However, there will be the chance that the low pressure which featured in the previous week lingers into this period, or that we see low pressure systems moving southeastwards from Iceland across the UK as they head into Central Europe.

The most likely picture is for the UK to be drier and calmer than normal, with a decent amount of sunshine and with temperatures a little above normal in most areas. If low pressure remains nearby or pushes in from the NW, then we could see it remaining wetter and windier, and temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below normal for the time of year in many areas. There is continuing uncertainty over the forecast at this range, so confidence is generally low compared to normal for this period.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Little more unsettled but some fine weather likely

The ridge of high pressure we expect to be across North West Europe at the end of August should drift eastwards towards Scandinavia and North East Europe during the first couple of weeks of September. That means that the relatively calm, dry and warm weather is likely to give way to something more changeable, with rainfall probably returning to near normal in most areas. It should still be a little warmer and a little less windy than normal though.

Compared to the usual patterns, it looks as though the south and west of the UK is more likely to see unsettled weather than the north and east, mainly due to the proximity of high pressure over Scandinavia. However, for the UK as a whole it conditions shouldn't be too far from 'average'. Whilst confidence was below normal for the forecast for the end of August, it actually increases the further we head into September. This is due to a number of factors, but one of the main things we see is better agreement between the various forecasting techniques used to predict the weather at this range.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the weather for the end of this month and start of next month to see if the forecast for the end of the summer looks any more certain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• A change in the weather


• Warm and sunnier spell


• Early September uncertainty

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/16/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-coming-back/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Thursday 22 Aug - Saturday 31 Aug

Thursday will see further spells of rain and perhaps stronger winds affecting northern parts of the UK, with the south more likely to remain largely dry with sunny spells. The end of the week and into the weekend is uncertain at this stage, but will probably see the unsettled weather continuing, mainly across the north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will recover to near or above average by day. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close by to the southwest bringing periods of settled and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, with perhaps the chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. The north and northwest may see further spells of wet and windy weather at times.

Sunday 1 Sep - Sunday 15 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 23 Aug - Sunday 1 Sep

Further spells of rain likely to affect northwestern parts of the UK during Friday, especially over higher ground. Elsewhere, largely dry with sunny spells. Into the weekend there is a lot of uncertainty at this stage, but will probably see the unsettled weather continuing across the far north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will generally be above average. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close by bringing periods of settled weather and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, with although the chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. Northern parts of the UK may see further spells of wet and windy weather at times.

Monday 2 Sep - Monday 16 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will dominate the weather across the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 24 Aug - Monday 2 Sep

There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage for the weekend's weather, but we will probably see the unsettled weather continuing across the far north and northwest, where it will often be wet and windy with a risk of coastal gales. For the rest of the UK though it may well be a largely dry and bright weekend. Temperatures will generally be above average across the south, but remaining closer to normal in the north. During the remainder of the month high pressure should remain close by, bringing periods of settled weather and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, although with a chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. Northern parts of the UK may see further spells of wet and windy weather.

Tuesday 3 Sep - Tuesday 17 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will dominate the weather across much of the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warmer than normal and drier than of late

_________________________________

Wednesday 21 August – Sunday 25 August

Becoming warmer and less unsettled for many

A couple of unsettled days to come before the weather starts to settle down for many parts of the country as we head towards the weekend. Most places will have a dry morning on Wednesday, but a deep Atlantic low pressure system will push showers and outbreaks of rain into some north-western parts of the country, where it will also become rather breezy. Wednesday afternoon will see more widespread and occasionally heavy rain moving across Scotland and Northern Ireland into northern England and north Wales. Central, southern and eastern parts of the country should remain dry but will become cloudier and breezier.

Thursday will be a changeable day, with showers and longer spells of rain for many areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be the wettest parts of the country on Thursday with south east England most likely to be driest. It will be another breezy day for all areas. Friday should see the start of a spell of drier, calmer and warmer weather. High pressure will keep most of England and Wales dry with sunny spells and light winds. Scotland and Northern Ireland, will probably see showers or rain, particularly northern Scotland, but there is a good chance of some drier and brighter spells. The weekend should also see a lot of dry weather across the UK with just the chance of a few showers. It looks as though it will be warm for the time of year across many areas too. For example, temperatures could reach the mid-twenties Celsius in many areas on Saturday, perhaps a little warmer in the South East.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Warm, even hot for a time. Chance of rain later

Most of next week is expected to be warmer than normal for the time of year as broadly southerly winds bring continental air to most parts of the UK next week. The first half of the week will probably be warmer than the second half of the week, and there is a chance we will see temperatures rising significantly above normal for a time. By coincidence, this would fit into the pattern of the summer so far, which has seen spells of very warm or hot weather at the end of each June and July.

There should be a good deal of dry weather too, although with winds coming from the south there will be the chance of some heavy and thundery showers moving in from the continent. Thunderstorms are probably more likely later in the week, when we see more of a chance of weather systems starting to move in from the west. The main alternative to our expected pattern for next week is for low pressure to be more of a feature to the east of the UK, close to or over Scandinavia. If this happens, then cooler west to north-westerly winds would be more likely, so it wouldn't be as warm as we expect it to be, although the cooler weather may only be a feature later in the week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Unsettled at first but drier towards mid-month

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe at first, this expected to bring more unsettled and cooler weather to the UK. The first full week of September is likely to be a bit wetter and windier than normal for the time of year. There are signs of a change of pattern as we move towards mid-month. The most likely scenario is for the low pressure affecting northern Europe to be replaced by high pressure. This would bring drier and calmer weather to the UK, and it should become warmer too, although it is too early to say how much warmer than normal it will become.

One thing we have seen over recent weeks is that weather patterns have been a little slower to change than expected. As a result, there is a chance that the spell of unsettled weather could last a little longer into September than we expect it to. That would also mean that the drier and calmer weather hangs on a bit longer around the middle of the month, reducing the chances of another spell of wet and windy weather to around a 30% chance.

Further ahead

We should be able to give a bit more detail on the chances very warm or hot weather next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 26 Aug - Wednesday 4 Sep

Monday will be dry and sunny for the majority, although with the continued risk of low cloud and fog around far west and northeastern coasts. A cloudier day for northwestern parts with strengthening winds and some rain here. Remaining very warm for most and hot in the southeast, with a small chance for some thundery showers here later on. Through the end of August and early September we will see a good deal of dry weather and sunshine. However, the north and northwest are likely to experience more unsettled periods with bands of rain followed by sunny spells and showers, with these conditions possibly spreading further south at times. Temperatures should be above average, most likely warm or very warm in the southeast, but nearer to average in the northwest.

Thursday 5 Sep - Thursday 19 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather in the early days of September, perhaps with some lingering wet and windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 27 Aug - Thursday 5 Sep

The end of August should see a split in the weather across the UK, with dry and sunny conditions prevailing across many areas, in particular southeast England, and for cloudier conditions across the far northwest. The far northwest will see rain at times, followed by periods with sunny spells and showers. Any strong winds will also be restricted to the far northwest. August temperatures will be above average overall and hot in the southeast, but closer to average in the far northwest. There is lower confidence for early September with quite mixed signals, however, it is likely that the most prolonged sunny periods will be in the south and that it will be more changeable in the north. Temperatures only at or slightly above average for the time of year.

Friday 6 Sep - Friday 20 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period, but most areas should see some spells of fine, dry, and sunny weather. These spells of fine weather will be most prolonged in the south of the UK. Northern parts are likely to see more changeable conditions through this period with spells of rain and stronger winds, these extending further south at times too. On the whole temperatures will be closer to or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Hot start


• Soon turning cooler


• September uncertainty continues

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/23/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-last-blast/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 28 Aug - Friday 6 Sep

The end of August should see a split in the weather across the UK, with warm, dry, sunny conditions prevailing across many areas, but in particular the southeast. In the northwest conditions will be cloudier with rain followed by periods with sunny spells and showers. The wind may be strong at times too, with temperatures here closer to average. During early September there may be a transition to more unsettled conditions nationwide. However, any rain will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. There is a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. As we head through early September we should see weather patterns become slow evolving again with temperatures near to or above average.

Saturday 7 Sep - Saturday 21 Sep

From early through to the middle of September there is a trend for the weather patterns across the UK to become slow moving with a 'blocked pattern' becoming dominant. At present it is considered most probably that this will cause a tendency for conditions to be most often unsettled, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are also probable at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very warm at first, then unsettled for a time

_________________________________

Saturday 24 August – Sunday 1 September

A hot weekend for some; more unsettled next week

The weather for the weekend and the start of next week will feature a lot of very warm, perhaps hot weather, especially for central, southern and eastern England. We are expecting above normal temperatures in most areas, with the hottest places likely to reach 30 Celsius or perhaps a little higher. It should be largely dry this weekend and on Monday, although a few scattered showers are possible across Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Saturday. There could also be a few showers for England and Wales on Sunday and Monday, and rain could move into western Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland on Monday evening.

The warm weather is expected to give way to cooler and more unsettled weather next week. There is some uncertainty over the exact timing of this transition, but it is likely to take place sometime around the middle of the week as a cold front passes south-eastwards across the country. There may be some thundery showers before this front arrives. It looks like the second half of the week will be cooler than the first half, although for many areas temperatures will remain near or perhaps above normal for the time of year. It does look likely to become more unsettled with showers and rain moving in from the west to affect some areas. However, the south of the country may avoid most of the showers as high pressure centred over mainland over Europe remains nearby. That said, there is a chance that this high pressure area moves further south, and all areas of the UK become more unsettled by the end of next week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

Unsettled with some wet and perhaps windy weather

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe through most of the first full week of September. This suggests that the weather will remain unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain for many, and a chance of some spells of breezy or windy weather with temperatures near normal. Some parts of the country could end up wetter than normal for the time of year, although at present we don't see any signs of very wet weather. There tends to be an increasing level of uncertainty in the forecast the further into the future we look. This time of year also sees an added amount of uncertainty introduced into the forecast as the North Atlantic hurricane season picks up.

Forecasting models don't always handle the impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms consistently, so generally confidence in the forecast tends to be a bit lower in September than at other times of year. The main uncertainty for the start of September is how extensive low pressure is across northern and north-western Europe. There is a chance that the weather could be wetter and windier than we expect, and it would probably be cooler than expected too. However, it is worth noting that there is still a slight chance that we will see high pressure building across western Europe at times, and the weather being calmer and drier at times.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

Turning drier and warmer than normal in most areas

The run up to mid-month should see high pressure becoming established over north-eastern Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems tending to be deflected into western and south-western Europe. This should mean that the UK sees the weather becoming less unsettled and there should be some good spells of drier weather for many areas, although the south and west of the UK could see some rain at times. Temperatures may well pick up a little above normal too. The main risk is that the low pressure systems track a little further north, bringing a continuation of the unsettled weather from earlier in September.

A slight change in pattern looks likely after mid-month, with high pressure to the south and east of us and low pressure to the north-west. This is fairly similar to the typical pattern we see for the UK, although there are signs that high pressure will be more of a feature than low pressure. The upshot of this is that the weather should be drier than normal for most areas, and there is a chance of some warmer weather developing too. The main alternative to our expected weather pattern is for low pressure to remain more of an influence i.e. windier and wetter weather for the UK with temperatures around average. This alternative has a roughly 25% chance of occurring.

Further ahead

Are there any signs that the warmth we expect to develop after the middle of September will persist towards the end of the month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 30 Aug - Sunday 8 Sep

It will become more unsettled on Friday, especially in the north. Occasionally heavy rain or showers will be likely here, with the risk of strong winds and it will feel rather cool for the time of year. The south may remain dry, especially in the southeast where temperatures will be above the seasonal average. Over the weekend, and into the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will vary around normal, with a possibility of further warm spells.

Monday 9 Sep - Monday 23 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 31 Aug - Monday 9 Sep

It will be unsettled this weekend. On Saturday, rain will gradually clear the southeast through the day, with sunshine and showers for much of the country. The showers will be heaviest in the north and west, with the risk of hail and thunder. Gales will be possible in the far northwest and it will feel cool for the time of year. The south will become drier on Monday but for the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will generally be on the cool side, especially in the north.

Tuesday 10 Sep - Tuesday 24 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 1 Sep - Tuesday 10 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Wednesday 11 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

September brings sporadic high-pressure

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 August – Sunday 1 September

A return to more seasonal weather

Wednesday will be a cooler day for all areas, with west-to south-westerly winds blowing from the Atlantic delivering cooler air. However, it will still be warm in the south-east, which should see a good deal of dry and bright weather in the afternoon. Cooler elsewhere, with some patchy rain affecting Wales, Scotland and northern England. In general, most areas should become drier with some clear spells overnight, although it will become breezier in north-western areas with a front bringing further outbreaks of rain to Scotland during the day on Thursday. Meanwhile, expect a dry day with sunny spells elsewhere; rather warm in the east but cloudier with a few spots of rain edging into western areas.

Friday will be rather breezy, particularly the further north and west you go, with a front continuing to bring a lot of cloud and further outbreaks of rain to northern Britain. Meanwhile, there should be a good deal of dry, bright and warm weather across south-eastern areas. Increasingly persistent rain will edge into Scotland and Northern Ireland overnight, and the associated area of low pressure will bring heavy rain and brisk winds here on Saturday. Further rain looks to edge into Wales and western England too, although the far south and south-east should remain dry and warm with rather hazy sunshine. As the first day of Meteorological Autumn, Sunday will certainly be a shock to the system, with temperatures falling below average for most under a keen north-westerly breeze, which will bring frequent heavy and thundery showers.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

A chilly start but warming up later

Monday will perhaps be even cooler than Sunday, with a west to north-westerly flow continuing for many areas, bringing further showers also. These could bring a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, even though temperatures may struggle to climb out of the mid-teens Celsius for many areas. The showers should tend to become less frequent later in the day and may fade entirely overnight. Confidence lowers somewhat from Tuesday to Thursday, when high pressure is expected to build back across the UK from the south-west.

As a result, lower pressure is likely to lift north of the country, allowing a more widespread return to drier and calmer weather by the second half of the week. However, it is the timing of the transition which is rather uncertain, and there could be an extended period of more unsettled conditions for a time. By the end of the week though, there is reasonable agreement that a more extensive high pressure area will extend across the country from the south-west, and although the week will start on a chilly note, it is likely to end on a warmer one.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

High pressure waxing and waning

The second week of September looks to start where the first week left off. High pressure could remain fairly close to the UK for a time, maintaining a few days of rather calm and settled weather, with temperatures rising above average for most places. The warmest weather looks likely across central, southern and south-western Britain, as winds should be lightest here. Occasional breezier and damp conditions may edge into Scotland at times. Confidence is lower as we head towards the middle of the month due to a lack of agreement between the computer models, although occasional wetter and windier bursts of weather look more likely to extend further south across the country.

These could bring a few cooler days with gusty winds and a risk of more widespread showers too. Scotland and north-east England would be most favoured to see any persistent rain. However, such conditions would only be temporary, as high pressure and more settled weather is never likely to remain too far away to the south-west. This should break-up any unsettled conditions with brief periods of dry and fine weather. In general, temperatures look to be around normal, although parts of England and Wales should experience the lion's share of any warmer days. Beyond mid-month, we anticipate high pressure to become more extensive across the UK and surrounding areas once again. This should provide a more extended period of largely dry and settled weather, with the early Autumn sunshine and light winds allowing temperatures to climb above average for all. However, the far north and north-east could occasionally be brushed by the odd weak front moving down from the north-west. Occasional spots of rain are possible here, although it looks to remain largely dry elsewhere.

Further ahead

Will high pressure remain close-by as we go through September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 2 Sep - Wednesday 11 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Thursday 12 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 3 Sep - Thursday 12 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn will see spells of rain interspersed with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Most of the rain will be in the northwest, with some reasonable drier and brighter spells across southern parts. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights and early mornings. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving changeable spells interspersed with brief settled interludes, with temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Friday 13 Sep - Friday 27 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cool start to September


• Eyes on ‘Dorian’


• Surprises later in the month?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/30/john-hammond-month-ahead-taste-early-autumn/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Met office CPF update

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf