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Maunder Minimum
27 February 2020 13:47:25

Israel are taking this very seriously. Anyone who has visited Italy in the last 14 days is mandated to self quarantine for 2 weeks. They have also ordered similar quarantines for those who have visited China, South Korea, Japan, Macau, Singapore and Thailand.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


One thing about Israel, is that it takes all measures to protect its citizens, whatever the threat.


New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 February 2020 13:48:34


 


Prior to having kids, I'd have had the same attitude as Retron. Having dependents changes your outlook and attitude to these kind of events.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


 


Me too , I've got two young boys now and my concern is for them. Some people on this thread don't seem to realise just how unprecedented this is going to be and are still going on about that its no worse than the flu. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
xioni2
27 February 2020 13:49:18


 Prior to having kids, I'd have had the same attitude as Retron. Having dependents changes your outlook and attitude to these kind of events.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


Many of us have elderly parents and some of us have both elderly parents and young kids, I don't think this is what shapes our attitude.


I think Maunder has neither elderly parents nor young kids, yet he has been on the speculation & hysteria bus right from its first stop.  

doctormog
27 February 2020 13:50:50


 


 


I'm not particularly worried about the virus itself. But its the disruption to life , it will be unprecedented in modern times. Today Japan closed all of its schools for a month because of this disease that's astonishing.  


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The response does seem to be more severe than the virus based on current evidence. The benefit  of hindsightl will be interesting.


westv
27 February 2020 13:51:29


 


 


Me too , I've got two young boys now and my concern is for them. Some people on this thread don't seem to realise just how unprecedented this is going to be and are still going on about that its no worse than the flu. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That seems to imply that flu is no more than a minor ailment.


At least it will be mild!
xioni2
27 February 2020 13:53:42


 The response does seem to be more severe than the virus based on current evidence. The benefit  of hindsightl will be interesting.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, I begin to think the same. It also becomes a positive feedback, the more severe the response, the greater the media coverage and the anxiety that creates to many people, who then ask for an even stronger response.


 

westv
27 February 2020 13:56:24


 


Yes, I begin to think the same. It also becomes a positive feedback, the more severe the response, the greater the media coverage and the anxiety that creates to many people, who then ask for an even stronger response.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


New reports using words such as "panic" don't help either.


At least it will be mild!
Ally Pally Snowman
27 February 2020 13:56:54


 


That seems to imply that flu is no more than a minor ailment.


Originally Posted by: westv 


 


I didn't say that I know its a very serious disease.  And this new virus is likely to be worse. And while we don't know how bad this disease is,  we are going to see some extraordinary efforts to avoid it spreading.  Like a country the size of Japan closing all of its schools for a month.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bowser
27 February 2020 14:00:13


 


What evidence do you have for this?


The irony is that back in 2009 the WHO was criticised for being too alarmist with the avian flu virus and for making national governments spend too much money in preparing against it.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


On Jan 30th WHO declared a public health emergency and also advised the following: "There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with intl. travel & trade"


I said at the time that I didn't think it made sense and I still don't. A more precautionary approach (given we only had a half understanding of the virus) would have made more sense in my mind.


More recently they've been criticized about reacting slowly (which I think they accepted) to the Ebola outbreaks.

xioni2
27 February 2020 14:00:53

Reading a bit more about the WHO, it seems that they will declare it a global pandemic only if containment fails and the virus gets out of control with major outbreaks globally. This is because they think that national governments already take it very seriously and a declaration of pandemic wouldn't bring any material improvements in the efforts against it, but it might panic people unnecessarily and could even harm global cooperation.


 

The Beast from the East
27 February 2020 14:02:06


 


Aye - vehicle for all kinds of extraneous bacteria


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Anyone read Roald Dahl's "the twits". Put me off beards for life


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
speckledjim
27 February 2020 14:03:30


 


 


Me too , I've got two young boys now and my concern is for them. Some people on this thread don't seem to realise just how unprecedented this is going to be and are still going on about that its no worse than the flu. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Very few children are getting this virus and no 0-9 year olds have died from it. I have 2 daughters, one of which has had respiratory issues in the past requiring multiple hospital stays, however, I refuse to worry unnecessarily about this virus. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
27 February 2020 14:03:52


 


 


Mine too! Would the UK government actually do this though.  A major UK outbreak seems very likely now.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


One of mine would; the elder one would freak - she has GCSE's in May/June.


It would be an insane level of over-reaction to close all schools. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
27 February 2020 14:04:42


 


Agreed, the evidence and spread is certainly suggesting this may be the case. Its going to decimate the football season I suspect. But the correct approach.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Would be hilarious if this prevented Liverpool from winning the league again


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
27 February 2020 14:06:22


 On Jan 30th WHO declared a public health emergency and also advised the following: "There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with intl. travel & trade"


I said at the time that I didn't think it made sense and I still don't. A more precautionary approach (given we only had a half understanding of the virus) would have made more sense in my mind.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


Most international and national experts seem to agree with the WHO stance? They didn't seem to say 'carry on as usual', they said 'don't take excessive/unnecessary measures'. 


Take Italy for example, they had amongst the most strict restrictions for travel with affected countries (compared to other European countries) and yet they got it. (they still haven't found their patient zero btw). 

The Beast from the East
27 February 2020 14:06:44


 


We were discussing this over coffee a few days ago and a girl made a vital contribution by saying "yes, but the flu isn't contagious, is it".


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Did she vote for Brexit and Boris?


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
27 February 2020 14:08:12


 Did she vote for Brexit and Boris?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think she is a Corbynista Brexiter...

Ally Pally Snowman
27 February 2020 14:10:22


 


The response does seem to be more severe than the virus based on current evidence. The benefit  of hindsightl will be interesting.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Well let's hope it is an over reaction.  But I'm sure they don't want any chance of their health service being completely overwhelmed and the utter chaos that brings like we saw in Wuhan.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
27 February 2020 14:11:21


 


 


It would be an insane level of over-reaction to close all schools. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Boris will have to choose between the economy or peoples lives. If the virus does become a full blown epidemic, at least 100,000 will die according to some estimates, most of them elderly with pre existing conditions.


But he cannot afford a massive economic shock so he wont do a China or even Italy. He will take the deaths


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
27 February 2020 14:13:15


 


I think she is a Corbynista Brexiter...


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


You hang around with such people?


I bet she loves Richard Burgon


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
speckledjim
27 February 2020 14:16:12


Reading a bit more about the WHO, it seems that they will declare it a global pandemic only if containment fails and the virus gets out of control with major outbreaks globally. This is because they think that national governments already take it very seriously and a declaration of pandemic wouldn't bring any material improvements in the efforts against it, but it might panic people unnecessarily and could even harm global cooperation.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I’m sure they must have to take account of current data which shows the number of new deaths dropping daily and also that recovered cases exceed new cases.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
27 February 2020 14:18:02


 


Boris will have to choose between the economy or peoples lives. If the virus does become a full blown epidemic, at least 100,000 will die according to some estimates, most of them elderly with pre existing conditions.


But he cannot afford a massive economic shock so he wont do a China or even Italy. He will take the deaths


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


How many of those 'estimated 100,000' people would have died anyway in the next 12 months? 


The majority of cases in the UK (and other developed countries) are reported to bring either no or only mild symptoms. Only a tiny minority require hospital treatment, and out of those a minority die. 


My parents are either side of 80 and if they got it, there could be ramifications. But other than that, I'm not worried in the least about the disease; more worried about the impacts of over-reactions and panic.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
bowser
27 February 2020 14:18:49


 


Most international and national experts seem to agree with the WHO stance? They didn't seem to say 'carry on as usual', they said 'don't take excessive/unnecessary measures'. 


Take Italy for example, they had amongst the most strict restrictions for travel with affected countries (compared to other European countries) and yet they got it. (they still haven't found their patient zero btw). 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


By implication there was no push to restrict travel.


Statement from Tedros today (1 month later), note the change in tone.....


"My message to each of these countries is: this is your window of opportunity.


If you act aggressively now, you can contain this coronavirus.


You can prevent people getting sick.


You can save lives".


I'm not sure the WHO themselves were aligned in their views/approach. https://www.ft.com/content/8ede7e92-4749-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 and the organisation seems like a bit of a political animal at the top.

Saint Snow
27 February 2020 14:20:31


 


I think she is a Corbynista Brexiter...


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


A Corbynista Brexiter is at least one evolutionary step up from a 'pleb' voting for Brexit and Bozo/Rasputin.


The Corbynista Brexiter only voted against their own interests once.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
27 February 2020 14:20:41


 Only a tiny minority require hospital treatment, and out of those a minority die.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I agree with you about deaths, but all the evidence thus far points to around 20% requiring hospitalisation.


Of course, that is 20% of confirmed cases, so if many go undetected that would change the stats - but would still be a huge number, crippling health services.


New world order coming.

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