I wonder if anyone here knows what the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases there was within England back at the end of February/start of March. From what I read in one of Scotland's national daily papers earlier this week, the first confirmed case in Scotland wasn't until the beginning of March which was 4-5 weeks after the first case in England was confirmed.
While I cannot claim to be any kind of expert on this disease and its behaviour, I think it was probably the case that there was fairly widespread community transmission of the virus within England during February and before the government raised the alert.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
The problem is that people who caught the virus early on, would most likely have been younger fitter people who had been travelling to Asia on business or holiday. If any of them caught the virus, it is quite likely it would have been missed - they may have been asymptomatic, or just had something they put down to a winter cold or the flu. The early cases which were uncovered, tended to be those who had passed on the infection to someone who then had a more serious reaction. So we will never know how many cases could have been in the country prior to the problem becoming all too apparent. But I think we are agreed that much more serious border controls should have been introduced weeks earlier with port screening measures in place.
I wrote the following to my MP on 6th March - I have not yet had a response:
"One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then test those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%
This also correlates perfectly with Taiwan's response. They suspended links to China and they had to cook up their own system, which is close to this (I suspect the Chinese may have copied it, Taiwan did it in early January as the first in the world when they became suspicious of a viral outbreak in their neighbour).
Europe have messed up - they should have taken events in Italy very seriously from the outset and closed borders.
P.S. Taiwan really is the role model for how to deal with this."