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Retron
14 August 2022 17:59:31

Looks like the maxima were below forecast again, around 33 seems to be the highest today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It does seem that GFS et al overcooked things for the country as a whole.


However, here it's been the exact opposite - UKV has had a really torrid time of this hot spell, with day after day suffering ninja-increases in forecast temperatures.


This morning's forecast, for example, at 5AM, followed by the same at 5PM:


  


Perhaps it's taking actual readings into account... my station does report direct via the MetO WoW system!


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
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14 August 2022 18:32:36


It's all subjective. Personally, and this is my hunch, I actually think we could be in for a cold winter and next summer could be similar to that of 2007, which was the complete opposite of 2006.


We will pay for this prolonged dry spell for sure.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Theres no karma in weather. Things average out over time of course, but if the average is shifting then, well, they don’t. 

Summer rainfall and évapotranspiration in sub-Mediterranean regions of Europe - North Portugal and Galicia, Gascony, Inland Languedoc, Lyon and Northern Rhône, Burgundy, Valais, Po Valley, inland Balkans and Greece - have not averaged out. They’ve shifted permanently. 


This August the Cicadas are silent in Southerm France and Corsica. So are the evening crickets. It’s a weird experience. They finished their mating cycle weeks early because of the spring heat, and they can’t cymbalise above 36C. Plus of course the worldwide insect decline of the last couple of decades due to land use change, pesticides and disease. So it’s weirdly silent. Scarily, kind of permanently silent. Like the fireflies that no longer exist in most of Europe because it’s too light at night. Or the sea in Corsica which was so warm it was not remotely refreshing - all time record SST of 30.7C earlier this month. Not normal. But further North, in Lyon and Toulouse, they’re clack clacking away. 


Nature doesn’t always make amends; sometimes it just dies.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
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14 August 2022 18:40:59


 


Hot weather loses its appeal very, very quickly. I can't wait for this endless, endless summer to end. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

It wouldn’t be so bad if I had nothing to do. If I were on holiday with a nice warm sea to dip into, it would be fine!  32c here again today and I’d be in bed for nine but these past few days it’s been too hot to sleep until after dark. So that doesn’t help!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
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14 August 2022 18:45:48


 



The only good news really is that we're losing 3 and a bit minutes of daylight a day, so it gets increasingly harder to sustain the really unpleasant temperatures for very long. Several days with dewpoints in the high teens / low 20s is utterly sapping! And to think, it used to be 17 or 18C DPs that were as high as you would see... it's as if we've all moved a few hundred miles south.


I wouldn't mind as much if it was followed by a 1995/6-style cold spell at Christmas (the last widespread White Christmas in the SE of England with snow falling and settling was 1970), but there are two downsides to that thought: one, it's clearly not going to happen, as it never does and two, if by some fluke it did happen, although I'd be dancing with happiness I know most people would be the exact opposite, for a variety of reasons.


I do wonder, though, whether given the atmopshere's tendancy to get "stuck in a rut", how many more plumes we'll manage to import before it finally becomes cold from the mainland of Europe, as opposed to hot...


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, the one saving grace is the earlier sunset, which allows it to cool down earlier.


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TimS
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14 August 2022 18:46:49


It wouldn’t be so bad if I had nothing to do. If I were on holiday with a nice warm sea to dip into, it would be fine!  32c here again today and I’d be in bed for nine but these past few days it’s been too hot to sleep until after dark. So that doesn’t help!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Take it from me, a “nice warm sea” loses its appeal when the sea temperature is 30C. Not pleasant. I love swimming in the sea but my favourite swim of the holiday by far was in a spring-fed river in the Corsican mountains that was properly cold. There’s no point in swimming unless it’s at least a bit of a shock when you go in. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
roadrunnerajn
14 August 2022 18:53:16

Down here in the cooler SW where in the last week it’s been anything but… on the Lizard this afternoon the temperature reached 26c! A mile inland it was 30c with little or no breeze. The night time temperatures have only dipped to 17c as a minimum.


Walking into the sea does not have that cold sting you would expect. It’s warm and swimming is now an enjoyable experience without wearing rubber!!!


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Chunky Pea
14 August 2022 18:54:05


 



The only good news really is that we're losing 3 and a bit minutes of daylight a day, so it gets increasingly harder to sustain the really unpleasant temperatures for very long. Several days with dewpoints in the high teens / low 20s is utterly sapping! And to think, it used to be 17 or 18C DPs that were as high as you would see... it's as if we've all moved a few hundred miles south.


I wouldn't mind as much if it was followed by a 1995/6-style cold spell at Christmas (the last widespread White Christmas in the SE of England with snow falling and settling was 1970), but there are two downsides to that thought: one, it's clearly not going to happen, as it never does and two, if by some fluke it did happen, although I'd be dancing with happiness I know most people would be the exact opposite, for a variety of reasons.


I do wonder, though, whether given the atmopshere's tendancy to get "stuck in a rut", how many more plumes we'll manage to import before it finally becomes cold from the mainland of Europe, as opposed to hot...


Originally Posted by: Retron 



True, but some of the warmest, most despicably humid nights of the year often occur in September (locally at least) so we are not really out of the woods until about October I think.


I really believe and I am more convinced by the day that a pattern shift occurred back in July 2021. That blasted Azores high has barely shifted since and any time it try to dissolve away, it just kept respawning with disturbing ease. The patter we seen this summer is exactly that which we endured not only during the near entirety of last winter, but last autumn and summer as well. I ask, how long more can this God forsaken pattern last?? 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chidog
14 August 2022 18:54:36

Looks like the maxima were below forecast again, around 33 seems to be the highest today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Charlwood at least made 34C. Maybe Ross on Wye and Cavendish as well, both had hourly maxes of at least 33.5C

Ally Pally Snowman
14 August 2022 18:58:37


Down here in the cooler SW where in the last week it’s been anything but… on the Lizard this afternoon the temperature reached 26c! A mile inland it was 30c with little or no breeze. The night time temperatures have only dipped to 17c as a minimum.


Walking into the sea does not have that cold sting you would expect. It’s warm and swimming is now an enjoyable experience without wearing rubber!!!


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


Yes I was at Holland on Sea yesterday North Essex coast. And the sea was as warm as i can ever remember an English sea. But still refreshing to get into from the hot beach.


.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sevendust
14 August 2022 19:38:37

As far as BBC forecasts were concerned, this spell was slightly overestimated in terms of temperature. You might have expected some of the UK date records to fall over the last few days but none have. Impressive spell nonetheless but we were spoilt in July! 

Rob K
14 August 2022 19:40:54


 


Take it from me, a “nice warm sea” loses its appeal when the sea temperature is 30C. Not pleasant. I love swimming in the sea but my favourite swim of the holiday by far was in a spring-fed river in the Corsican mountains that was properly cold. There’s no point in swimming unless it’s at least a bit of a shock when you go in. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


I have to say I’ve never understood the “not cold enough to be refreshing” argument. The sea can never be too warm as far as I’m concerned!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
GezM
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14 August 2022 19:41:58


 


Yes I was at Holland on Sea yesterday North Essex coast. And the sea was as warm as i can ever remember an English sea. But still refreshing to get into from the hot beach.


.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Official SSTs are over 20C on the Essex coast. Add a bit of heat from the beach in shallow waters with the tides and you're probably experiencing 22C which used to be typical in the South of France this time of year 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Ally Pally Snowman
14 August 2022 19:46:58


 


Official SSTs are over 20C on the Essex coast. Add a bit of heat from the beach in shallow waters with the tides and you're probably experiencing 22C which used to be typical in the South of France this time of year 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


Not bad for the UK. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
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14 August 2022 20:08:19


 


I have to say I’ve never understood the “not cold enough to be refreshing” argument. The sea can never be too warm as far as I’m concerned!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Believe me, it can. At a certain air temperature you really need the water to cool you down. Sea that’s the same temperature as the air really doesn’t. 


Most of us grew up in a climate where the waters around the coast were always borderline too cold to swim in, so of course we crave warmer water. But like most things there is a tipping point. Corsica this year was the tipping point for me. Like a tepid bath. Not nice.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
doctormog
14 August 2022 20:14:30
I guess it’s personal preference (like many things in the weather!). I was swimming in the Caribbean 3 weeks ago and the water temperature was about 30°C and it was lovely.
Ally Pally Snowman
15 August 2022 11:13:45

Cambridge NIAB already 30.5c so that's 8 30c days in a row.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
15 August 2022 21:18:50

Coningsby 32.1 max but that seems dubious as the highest hourly reading was 29.8C. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
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16 August 2022 06:58:08


 


Take it from me, a “nice warm sea” loses its appeal when the sea temperature is 30C. Not pleasant. I love swimming in the sea but my favourite swim of the holiday by far was in a spring-fed river in the Corsican mountains that was properly cold. There’s no point in swimming unless it’s at least a bit of a shock when you go in. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 

  Yes, I’ve swam in cold mountain pools and Cenotes in Mexico. Definitely refreshing.  But I love the Caribbean Sea!  That’s my ‘nice warm’.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
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16 August 2022 07:02:26

I guess it’s personal preference (like many things in the weather!). I was swimming in the Caribbean 3 weeks ago and the water temperature was about 30°C and it was lovely.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Tim A
16 August 2022 07:16:07
In this current heatwave I recorded 5 days at 30c or above in a row, which I am not sure I have ever seen before. Made me think , were any local stations broken for the number of 30c days in a row (would likely be in the North)?

Tim
NW Leeds
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 My PWS 
TimS
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18 August 2022 15:44:07
27C in a few places today, possibly a 28C. The post heatwave cool-down continues to be pretty warm.

How many more 30s this year? Per the ensembles it could be anywhere between zero and 6 or 7.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
18 August 2022 17:11:51

I guess it’s personal preference (like many things in the weather!). I was swimming in the Caribbean 3 weeks ago and the water temperature was about 30°C and it was lovely.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Great Whites also love those sea temperatures. Something to keep in the back of your mind the next time you go for a dip! 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chidog
19 August 2022 15:14:28


Out of curiosity in the rankings of the hot UK summers I have collected together the data where I can (the full daily data for 1976 for the entire summer seems impossible to find, so I have only got the 30C+ days there).

For info, listed as year, followed by days above 25C, 28C, 29C, 30C, 32C and 35C in the three summer months.

1976: ?, ?, ?, 17, 15, 5
1995: 61, 40, 31, 27, 12, 1
2018: 59, 33, 27, 24, 6, 2
2022: 38, 24, 17, 11, 5, 2 (up to 9 August).

1995 is still the daddy as far as I am concerned, with a whopping 27 days above 30C, and 40 above 28C. However when talking extreme heat duration (above 35C), 1976 is the champ for now.

After the coming week, I think 2022 is likely to take the "extreme heat" crown from 1976, but 1995 is still the overall summer to rule them all. Shame about the cruddy start to June though - 8 days in the first half of June 95 failed to even reach 20C!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


2022 to 19th August: 48, 31, 24, 17, 10, 2/3 (unclear if Charlwood made it to 35C on the 13th). Going to fall just short of the very best summers but still right up there.

Hungry Tiger
20 August 2022 14:06:56

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post



 


 


{Out of curiosity in the rankings of the hot UK summers I have collected together the data where I can (the full daily data for 1976 for the entire summer seems impossible to find, so I have only got the 30C+ days there).

For info, listed as year, followed by days above 25C, 28C, 29C, 30C, 32C and 35C in the three summer months.

1976: ?, ?, ?, 17, 15, 5
1995: 61, 40, 31, 27, 12, 1
2018: 59, 33, 27, 24, 6, 2
2022: 38, 24, 17, 11, 5, 2 (up to 9 August).

1995 is still the daddy as far as I am concerned, with a whopping 27 days above 30C, and 40 above 28C. However when talking extreme heat duration (above 35C), 1976 is the champ for now.

After the coming week, I think 2022 is likely to take the "extreme heat" crown from 1976, but 1995 is still the overall summer to rule them all. Shame about the cruddy start to June though - 8 days in the first half of June 95 failed to even reach 20C!{


 


The fact this summer hit 40C in this country in my view puts this summer in a class of its own.


 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
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21 August 2022 07:41:38
This morning’s GFS run gives us 3 more days above 30C this week, and one above 32C. Some ensemble members give more.

What’s the latest score for 2022?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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