Metcheck                   11.98c           Anomaly        1.47c

Netweather                12.58c           Anomaly        2.19c

Peasedown St John    12.17c          Anomaly        1.63c.  

Better for less heating needed and this coming week really helpful to stay warm enough.  I rather have cold weather when it come with snow and subzero temps but otherwise stick to 10-15C temps as much as possible. 1-9C really pointless temperatures and very boring which also need more heating.

Once again today was warmer and sunny after the early clouds clear.  Due to absence of big HP cells which always bring dull weather last summer and Sept which is no use to it had not occur this month.  Better this set-up of zonal pattern and it bring more useable sunny weather in between rain mostly at nights hence why it been mild, a bonus for keeping off as much as possible.

METCHECK                     11.89c              Anomaly           1.3c.

NETWEATHER                 12.68c              Anomaly           2.29c

Peasedown St John         11.9c           Anomaly           -1.9c  

Another stunning October day here warm and sunny. Looks very mild for the rest of the month.  High 12s looks likely. 

And so endeth my challenge for another year.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1582480732768772101

Confirmed now that we could see one of the mildest 2nd halves of Oct on record, due to a rare succession of cut-off lows due west of Europe (usually it's just the one before the pattern moves on!). 

This is particularly unusual for October during a moderate to strong La Nina event such as we have now, which usually sustains a strong, northeast-shifted Azores High, leading to a drier than usual month with temps near average.

An unusually slow-moving MJO transit of the West Pacific looks to be the main culprit for this large deviation. Such events are very difficult to anticipate more than 10 days in advance.

I did account for the possibility in my CET estimate, but erred on the side of caution, which I might well come to regret!

Thanks for the update James.

In your Tweet, what's the orange line? Record warmest?

Metcheck                   11.85c            Anomaly            1.34c

Netweather                12.59c            Anomaly            2.02c

Peasedown St John         12.05c            Anomaly            -1.75c.

The orange line represents what the conditions of the warmest historical year that had a CET within 2°C of 2022's as of 18th would do to this year's CET going forward, if they repeated themselves now.

So, sort of a record warmest, but not exactly 

Metcheck                    11.91c       Anomaly       1.46c

Netweather                 12.61c       Anomaly       2.21

Peasedown St John     12.21c       Anomaly     -1.59c.         

Met Office Hadley CET 12.0c     Anomaly    1.5c provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       11.95c        Anomaly       1.6

Netweather                    12.65c        Anomaly       2.26c      

Peasedown St John        12.65c        Anomaly       -1.6c.

Metcheck                    12.02c               Anomaly            1.31c

Netweather                 12.73c               Anomaly            2.34c

Peasedown St John          12.46c               Anomaly            -1.34c.

+0.36C the target now for warmest year, back where it was in mid September. 

71 days left in 2022. 0.36 x 71 = 25.56C above normal degree days. If CET for next 10 days is per GFS it’ll be at least 2.5C (possibly 3C) above average, so 30 degree days and we’d be left only needing CET to be at or a tad below average in Nov and Dec to win the crown. 

Metcheck                        12.10c          Anomaly           1.58c

Netweather                     12.81c          Anomaly           2.42c

Peeasedown st John        12.35c          Anomaly          -1.3c.  

Reckon we could end up with a 12.5C

Never known an October like it (although I was just 4 in 1969).

Some local stats: mean max to today 18.3°C, amazing when you think there have been no really warm days like 2011. 2007, 1985 etc (highest max only 20.5°C)

Lowest max 15.3°C on 11th

Number of days below 17°C = just 4. 16 out of 23 days have been 18°C or more. That despite many of them being showery/ rainy.

Mean min also high but not worth posting as I take my readings around 7am, meaning warm nights following cool nights often register as another cool night.

Not to mention anomalously high number of thundery days for this time of year- off thread. Oops- did just mention it. Had to squeeze it in there.