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White Meadows
01 December 2022 18:43:56
Extraordinary developments unfolding in this evenings output. 
The trend remains very robust. More so than usual. 
attack/s from the north east could last for quite some time this month. 
Heavy Weather 2013
01 December 2022 18:46:43

ECM t+168 is interesting.

Thickness values:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=thickuk_only&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness 


850hPa temps:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=thickuk&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness%20+%20850%20C 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



My goodness. That would be freezing. Astonishing chart.

This could cause serious issues with energy grids.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
David M Porter
01 December 2022 18:51:31

Extraordinary developments unfolding in this evenings output. 
The trend remains very robust. More so than usual. 
attack/s from the north east could last for quite some time this month. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Indeed. There are certainly comparisons to be drawn between the current model output and what we witnessed in the lead-up to the freezes of December 2010 and mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010. We haven't seen output like this with this consistency at the beginning of any winter since, unless my memory is going a bit wonky.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Essan
01 December 2022 18:59:47
It's the law of Sod - the one time we really don't want a cold winter, thats exctly what we will get!    An bear in mind a cold Europe will only make matters worse (in terms of energy supply), whatever  happens here.
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+1
nsrobins
01 December 2022 19:04:27
Remarkable NWP output at the moment. From a physics point of view -6 uppers with 516/520dm under slack surface winds at night equals very low minima. Add any snow cover and should the EC realise we could see -10 minima widely inland next weekend. 
As Andy says the strain on the energy grid will be significant. I have a wood burner but for many it might be a very challenging period.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
01 December 2022 19:08:56
That's a very cold looking ECM.  Potentially very snowy.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tom Oxon
01 December 2022 19:16:17
The T240 is lining up the Beast, the 312hr chart would have been interesting.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Surrey John
01 December 2022 19:18:41

ECM t+168 is interesting.

Thickness values:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=thickuk_only&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness 


850hPa temps:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=thickuk&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness%20+%20850%20C 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



515 here in Wiltshire, at just 7 days away

That will be interesting if it comes off

 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
ballamar
01 December 2022 19:23:02

Remarkable NWP output at the moment. From a physics point of view -6 uppers with 516/520dm under slack surface winds at night equals very low minima. Add any snow cover and should the EC realise we could see -10 minima widely inland next weekend. 
As Andy says the strain on the energy grid will be significant. I have a wood burner but for many it might be a very challenging period.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


all adds to the potential of developing our own cold pool which I am sure the forecasters will love!
David M Porter
01 December 2022 19:32:52

It's the law of Sod - the one time we really don't want a cold winter, thats exctly what we will get!    An bear in mind a cold Europe will only make matters worse (in terms of energy supply), whatever  happens here.

Originally Posted by: Essan 



It wouldn't be the first time that has happened.

1978/79: The UK was on its backside economically (the notorious 'winter of discontent'). That winter was, unless I'm mistaken, the coldest overall there has been since 1962/63.

2009/10: We had just gone into a recession following the banking/financial crisis, and that winter proved to be the coldest overall since that of 78/79.
It's almost as if the weather knows whenever we are hard-up in terms of our economic situation!
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Jiries
01 December 2022 19:53:58
Why it very quiet here tonight when in NW is buzzing with lot of posts and good runs like the ECM?  No posts about ECM tonight? 

Really looking forward to a change of weather mainly to remove this nasty HP cloud fest which made more increased heating costs and boring weather.
Next week less heaing usage due to more sunshine in between snowfalls, some interesting weather set-up from the East.
Heavy Weather 2013
01 December 2022 20:03:27
The ECM mean is simply astonishing. 

https://twitter.com/metryan96/status/1598405896614576128?s=46&t=wl-mE4qu9eLCjnXdNHMo1g 
 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Osprey
01 December 2022 20:06:41
May I add to sods law, that we are moving house Friday week. The last time we moved house was 1st March 2006 and  IIRC we has a lot of snow around that time. May I also add that my son-inlaw to be had part of finger chopped off in an accident many years ago and he swears that when his finger begins to get playup (pain), it snows.
I know there's no science, it's just a coincidece😃
Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Zubzero
01 December 2022 20:11:07
Yes Jiries sadly this forum is a ghost of its formerself. The Up In Arms forum is more active then the weather forum most of the year. Not sure if it's down to no open registrations anymore more? But as I said so sad to see so little activity 😢 

Ecm looks epic could be som3 very low temps recorded under that slack bone dry artic air 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
 
nsrobins
01 December 2022 20:17:48

Yes Jiries sadly this forum is a ghost of its formerself. The Up In Arms forum is more active then the weather forum most of the year. Not sure if it's down to no open registrations anymore more? But as I said so sad to see so little activity 😢 

Ecm looks epic could b3 som3 very l9w temps recorded under that slack bone dry art8c air 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 
 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


To be fair there are at least five posts directly referencing the EC. It might be a ghost of its former self as you put it, but what posts there are, are in the main reasoned and sensible - quite unlike the NW forum which is a kindergarten at times. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+3
Zubzero
01 December 2022 20:26:01
I agree just getting old 😆

Can't believe it's been not far of 20 years I think since ive been on TWO. 
BJBlake
01 December 2022 20:51:10
Welcome back! Come on Codge - you're welcome back too, even if the weather next week is not to your liking. LOL...

I am struggling to believe these model outputs, which is like the best Christmas present for coldies - since 2010. Apart from the energy crisis, that is...but few coldies could not be excited by these models. After so many promises that melt to nothing, this one just keeps getting better....My heating is still not on yet! But it might be by next week! 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
nsrobins
01 December 2022 21:14:24
ICON 18z holding fast as far as it goes (+120 on the 06 and 18Z runs) - if anything the main NE trough plunge is brought forward 12hrs a la EC.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
01 December 2022 21:16:52
Fwiw ECM op has daytime max temps for me of:-
3/12 = 4.5c
4/12 = 3.8c
5/12 = 5.8c
6/12 = 6.1c
7/12 = 1.3c
8/12 = 1.7c
9/12 = 0.6c
10/12 = 3.1c
11/12 = 3.0c

So cold for 3 days and chilly before and after that. Nighttime temp wise it's only from the 7th that goes below zero, with a lowest of -5.7c which is fairly unusual as it doesn't usually show temps that low and often overestimates things IMBY if skies are clear.

Some way off a decent cold spell just going on temps on the Op but not terrible and a brief window where lying snow is possible. Be interesting to see how it develops and whether it sticks with the theme of cutting off the colder 850s due to too much LP development (and if it does whether it goes mild after that or brings in some of the cold air building over Scandi as shown in the T240 chart!).

(All very IMBY of course and other locations will probably be somewhat better looking if you like it cold!). 

Must admit I prefer the GFS ops solution to ECM, just because it's much better at day 9 in terms of bringing colder uppers in so I'm pretty neutral with the ECM setup, chilly/cold though it is IMBY.








 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
Surrey John
01 December 2022 21:22:52
Another bit of nostalgia, another name from the past is commenting on Twitter 

Edited link, realise now just click the twitter symbol and insert post number



 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Jiries
01 December 2022 21:46:42
Once the cold air arrives as per models been showing, the energy companies should waived the illegal high standing charges out or reduce the costs during the cold spell to allow everyone to use more heating then get killed inside from cold weather.  Many will be killed or very sick as many houses will easily drop to freezing, then burts pipes.  

Heating always on 24 hours during past big freeze to prevent freezing house and pipes.
White Meadows
01 December 2022 21:51:25
Link doesn't work, but is that Joe the ******i!?
I am starting to seriously see a living correlation between soggy Novembers followed by icy Decembers. 

maybe some clever individual can highlight some recent stats. 
Snowedin3
01 December 2022 21:52:27
What's up everybody have I missed anything? 🤡
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
fairweather
01 December 2022 21:52:58

Welcome back! Come on Codge - you're welcome back too, even if the weather next week is not to your liking. LOL...

I am struggling to believe these model outputs, which is like the best Christmas present for coldies - since 2010. Apart from the energy crisis, that is...but few coldies could not be excited by these models. After so many promises that melt to nothing, this one just keeps getting better....My heating is still not on yet! But it might be by next week! 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



What?!! You must either have some good house insulation or high personal insulation layers😉 Mean temperature today was about 6C .
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
01 December 2022 21:54:16

Once the cold air arrives as per models been showing, the energy companies should waived the illegal high standing charges out or reduce the costs during the cold spell to allow everyone to use more heating then get killed inside from cold weather.  Many will be killed or very sick as many houses will easily drop to freezing, then burts pipes.  

Heating always on 24 hours during past big freeze to prevent freezing house and pipes.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


This is very true Jires. Although not illegal (yet) the government may have to step in with emergency measures, if this output continues in light of the Met office contingency planners update, which indicates a below average start to winter. 

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