theweatheroutlook

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Retron
12 October 2023 12:01:51
Better late than never - the MetO warning has been updated today to include mention of the winds.

It will also become windy with gusts of 45-50 mph inland and as high as 60 mph on some southern coasts.
Leysdown, north Kent
Jacee
12 October 2023 18:05:59
It is interesting to watch the battle between the high over Scandinavia and the lows in the Atlantic later next week.

We see, on its migration, the high settle over the UK early next week with a gradual mixing out of the polar air that brings the chill this weekend. Lovely and seasonal for autumn though with good visibility I'd expect.

I note the UKMO this evening which has a more prominent push of milder uppers across the UK by midweek, and less settled weather attempting to make inroads from the west. Mild southerlies for all of us as the topsy-turvy month develops.

UserPostedImage

The GFS by contrast holds the warmer airmass to the west. Still fairly mild you'd expect but more of the UK, especially away from the southwest, likely to be dry with some sunshine. Thereafter the colder airmass to the east does make some progress westwards and equates to another chilly weekend. Plenty of interest!

UserPostedImage


UserPostedImage

😍
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+3
Jiries
12 October 2023 19:13:56

It is interesting to watch the battle between the high over Scandinavia and the lows in the Atlantic later next week.

We see, on its migration, the high settle over the UK early next week with a gradual mixing out of the polar air that brings the chill this weekend. Lovely and seasonal for autumn though with good visibility I'd expect.

I note the UKMO this evening which has a more prominent push of milder uppers across the UK by midweek, and less settled weather attempting to make inroads from the west. Mild southerlies for all of us as the topsy-turvy month develops.

UserPostedImage

The GFS by contrast holds the warmer airmass to the west. Still fairly mild you'd expect but more of the UK, especially away from the southwest, likely to be dry with some sunshine. Thereafter the colder airmass to the east does make some progress westwards and equates to another chilly weekend. Plenty of interest!

UserPostedImage


UserPostedImage

😍

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



Interestig and we going to Rhewl, North Wales for 2 nights on 21-23 October and with the SE flow seem very good for Wales with fall sunshine but colder air.  Wales often does very well with sunshine from a easterly than on the east side of UK.

 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
13 October 2023 08:09:50
I see that from wanting to stay very cool yesterday, the GFS Ops run this morning has flipped to the top end of the 850 hPa Ens range and is now looking very mild in about 6 days time.

Has GFS Ops always been this bipolar? It seems to have been much less 'average' recently. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
The Beast from the East
13 October 2023 08:30:21

I see that from wanting to stay very cool yesterday, the GFS Ops run this morning has flipped to the top end of the 850 hPa Ens range and is now looking very mild in about 6 days time.

Has GFS Ops always been this bipolar? It seems to have been much less 'average' recently. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Another win for ECM.  Could be a record warm October again
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
13 October 2023 09:02:39

Another win for ECM.  Could be a record warm October again

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I'd be wary of calling a win at this stage! Does look less likely that cold air will hang around for long though - albeit I didn't really see the cold solutions on the models.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
14 October 2023 10:58:06
GFS goes rather chilly again for next weekend.

I'm off to France during half term week and GFS looks exceptionally wet for that week at the moment!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2023 07:08:00
WX for week1 show temps below average for Baltic area, and esp for Norway, a little above for the rest of W Europe. In week 2 not much change for W Europe but a large freezing area developed over N Scandinavia and N Russia, the latter having previously been quite warm for the time of year.

GFS Op  - current HP being slowly displaced by Deep LP off Iberia which arrives here on Wed 16th (enjoy the warm SE-lies while they last!) and settles down by Sat 21st 985mb N England with trough linking to Greenland one way and the Alps the other way. LP persists near Britain with intensification 980mb N Sea Fri 27th and 975mb St Kilda Tue 31st.

ECM - similar pattern though LP holds off to the W Wed 16th but same by Sat 21st and an extra LP 980mb Scotland Wed 23rd

GEFS - countrywide, becoming warm for a few days around Fri 18th with rain setting in about then heavy for a few days and then persisting, temps close to norm.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
The Beast from the East
15 October 2023 08:15:57
Horror show. Constant cold rain all week. Utterly depressing
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Jiries
15 October 2023 08:40:13

Horror show. Constant cold rain all week. Utterly depressing
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Let talk about the forecasts made in the past that when it say going to be settled for a week long which I thought it will be this wee.  In the past if they were predicting a settled week, it will come off and correct.   Models took the settled week away after realising it will not happen and dish out cold rain all week?  So it show the models had severely massively biggest ever failure to spot this in the first place, so if past newspaoers, Ceefax would had correctly predicted this week to be unsettled.   
doctormog
15 October 2023 08:48:46

Let talk about the forecasts made in the past that when it say going to be settled for a week long which I thought it will be this wee.  In the past if they were predicting a settled week, it will come off and correct.   Models took the settled week away after realising it will not happen and dish out cold rain all week?  So it show the models had severely massively biggest ever failure to spot this in the first place, so if past newspaoers, Ceefax would had correctly predicted this week to be unsettled.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



No matter how many times you state the same thing the verification data over the years still show you are wrong. Memory of Ceefax forecasts may be rather subjective and unreliable, like memories of our halcyon sunny summer days which in reality may have been cool, wet and miserable.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Jiries
15 October 2023 09:02:05

No matter how many times you state the same thing the verification data over the years still show you are wrong. Memory of Ceefax forecasts may be rather subjective and unreliable, like memories of our halcyon sunny summer days which in reality may have been cool, wet and miserable.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Unfortunately the models had been very wrong about this coming week which supposed to be settled for a week long then moving goal posts after realising it wont happen. Sorry I will keep slating at the models until they accurately show what it willl happen for the next week.  Was showing a dry week with temps rising back to average to now very wet week.  
Charmhills
15 October 2023 09:04:15
Very unsettled runs this morning a real waterfest for many.☔🌧️☂️

Flooding a possibility by the end of the week!!!
 
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
doctormog
15 October 2023 09:13:11

Unfortunately the models had been very wrong about this coming week which supposed to be settled for a week long then moving goal posts after realising it wont happen. Sorry I will keep slating at the models until they accurately show what it willl happen for the next week.  Was showing a dry week with temps rising back to average to now very wet week.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Are you suggesting in the past that models spotted a scenario at a week out and stuck with that scenario despite changes in the input data? Forecasts change, and realistically given the multitude of factors and data involved, will continue to change between model runs for the foreseeable future. If they didn’t change in the past it’s because there was less data and, as very clearly documented research has shown (and been shared with you before), models were significantly less accurate in the past. As the saying goes you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. 

I have shared the research data showing the improvement in model and forecast accuracy over the years with you in the last few months, if you have evidence to the contrary beyond your own opinion please share them with us all.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Jiries
15 October 2023 09:33:46

Are you suggesting in the past that models spotted a scenario at a week out and stuck with that scenario despite changes in the input data? Forecasts change, and realistically given the multitude of factors and data involved, will continue to change between model runs for the foreseeable future. If they didn’t change in the past it’s because there was less data and, as very clearly documented research has shown (and been shared with you before), models were significantly less accurate in the past. As the saying goes you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. 

I have shared the research data showing the improvement in model and forecast accuracy over the years with you in the last few months, if you have evidence to the contrary beyond your own opinion please share them with us all.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



To me it got lot worse as they didnt spot this one up to 1 week which you expect with super computers and more data feed suppose to spot them of any weather coming up.  Also lot of push backs becoming too much frequently.  Like last Sunday the models predicted temps correctly low to mid 20s then attemptd to take this away with fae lower temps v 850s temps but resulted what it was correctly predicted in first place, some uproar posts in NW.   
Jiries
15 October 2023 09:47:01

Very unsettled runs this morning a real waterfest for many.☔🌧️☂️

Flooding a possibility by the end of the week!!!
 

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



Models failure to spot this as just a while ago was showing a dry week with temps rising back to aveage and easterly feeds.
Chunky Pea
15 October 2023 11:40:23

Models failure to spot this as just a while ago was showing a dry week with temps rising back to aveage and easterly feeds.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Haven't really been following the models lately but it is eyebrow raising how quickly the isobar gradient is forecast to tighten across virtually the whole of the north Atlantic region between now and Wednesday:UserPostedImage

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
DPower
15 October 2023 17:47:51

Models failure to spot this as just a while ago was showing a dry week with temps rising back to aveage and easterly feeds.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Not according to the 12z ukmo run today. A cold raw wet easterly ( continental ) set up by next weekend, will be interesting to see where the ecm run sits with this.
doctormog
15 October 2023 17:50:36
Unfortunately more flooding looks likely later in the week for this region with a Sever weather warning in place for rainfall from Thursday to Saturday. Given the timescale involved there must be a level of concern about the impact (and given the models I’m not surprised). Still time for it to change but I doubt if it will alter significantly from the overall current picture.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Zubzero
15 October 2023 18:05:48

Not according to the 12z ukmo run today. A cold raw wet easterly ( continental ) set up by next weekend, will be interesting to see where the ecm run sits with this.

Originally Posted by: DPower 



The latter stages of that run are if only it was mid winter charts.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=144&mode=0 
ozone_aurora
15 October 2023 18:53:02

Very unsettled runs this morning a real waterfest for many.☔🌧️☂️

Flooding a possibility by the end of the week!!!
 

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Yes, indeed.

It reminds me of October 1986. It was generally quiet, dry and settled for first 17 days with abundant sunshine, and mostly quite warm, in fact very warm on 1st with max temperatures exceeding 22 C in Lincoln where I was living. 

However, for last 14 days, it turned very unsettled and wet, often windy, and on some days notably cold; it was only 9 C in Lincoln according to my thermometer on 22nd. The current model output (released on 15 Oct) resembles that of 2nd part of October 1986.
Jiries
15 October 2023 19:07:11

Not according to the 12z ukmo run today. A cold raw wet easterly ( continental ) set up by next weekend, will be interesting to see where the ecm run sits with this.

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Quite a lot of posters in NW also thought we will in a dry settled week with temperatures returning to average.    The models had simply changed it goal posts so it show a massive faliure.  Should had not modelled a settled week which was in the later part of the reliable range and show wet weather instead.   Remembering the past Sunday newspaper forecasts used a wording, General Situation for the coming week which I read and end results all came off of any type of weather, never recalled a back track, delayed, downgrade,s or failed to turn up.   
Bolty
15 October 2023 19:10:13

The latter stages of that run are if only it was mid winter charts.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=144&mode=0 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



Yes, I'm not too sure why some are getting excited over this, personally. If it was a month or so later, then fair enough, but all such a pattern would bring at this time of year is a raw-feeling cloudy spell with cold rain showers on the east coast. It would be a massive waste, really.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 October 2023 07:05:51
WX temps show most of Europe N of the Alps as cooler than average in week 1, only the Balkans are noticeably warmer. Not much change for week 2; perhaps a little warmer for continental Europe, cooler in N Russia though this downplayed since yesterday. Some rain for much of Europe in week 1, heaviest in the west and over the Alps (early snowfall at high levels?) . In week 2 the focus shifts to the western edge of the continent especially France. Britain averagely wet both weeks

GFS Op - LP moving N from Portugal to SW Ireland 975mb Thu 19th, with S-ly gales for a while, changing direction and becoming 980mb C France Sat 21st with strong E-lies for Britain. Then a series of Atlantic LPs moving E or SE-wards with no intervening HP; 960mb Fair Isle Wed 25th, 975mb N Ireland Sun 29th, 980mb Biscay Wed 1st. Any Hp in week 1 near N Norway and in week 2 near S Russia.

ECM - differs from GFS in not sending the LP to C France; instead it sticks over S England 985mb Sat 21st. The later LPs are closer to W Britain; a secondary LP SW Ireland Wed 25th and the one over Fair Isle moving SE into Scotland Thu 26th.

GEFS - becoming mild for this week, then mean mostly a couple of degrees below norm (op & control generally cooler around Sat 21st, and Scotland definitely cooler at this time), rain setting in Wed 19th and continuing for the forecast period, often heavy
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+9
Charmhills
16 October 2023 08:31:36
Still on course for a waterfest this morning.☔

Very unsettled and after a brief milder blip, turning colder by the weekend.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
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