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nsrobins
23 October 2023 19:04:51
Starting to look a little spicy at the weekend - consistent modelling of a deep low swinging in.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jiries
23 October 2023 19:50:22

Starting to look a little spicy at the weekend - consistent modelling of a deep low swinging in.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



More boring weather pattern wind and rain nothing else offered.
Saint Snow
23 October 2023 21:10:11

More boring weather pattern wind and rain nothing else offered.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
23 October 2023 23:40:10

Starting to look a little spicy at the weekend - consistent modelling of a deep low swinging in.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Might be interesting to some Neil, but not the best news for those areas that have been hit badly with flooding from Storm Babet and other heavy rainfall earlier in the month.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 October 2023 07:23:51
WX charts for the coming two weeks start with below average in a large are of N Russia (indeed below freezing) but much above in the Balkans. Into next week this evens out with the freezing area diminishing but the whole of Europe including the Mediterranean seasonally cool. Some cold weather in Iceland and Norway in week 2 which may affect N Scotland. Rain for Atlantic coasts continuing both weeks; an extension to Italy in week 1 detaches and moves SE to Greece. 

GFS Op - LP in Mid Atlantic projecting broad but shallow trough across Britain and on into NW Europe, parent LP not moving much until Sun 29th when it gets to SW Ireland 970mb and over the next few days fills and moves NE-wards. Then HP for one day only before a deep depresssion 960mb S of Iceland together with HP somewhere near Spain brings in raging W-lies Fri 3rd which moderate but persist for the following week.

FAX - agrees with GFS and additionally shows a collections of fronts and troughs frequently moving N-wards in the general trough, stalling and dying out over N England, then additionally an LP developing 984mb off NW Spain Sat 28th.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 1st then instead of LP S of Iceland, that LP is placed much further S approaching Britain directly and arriving 970mb Bristol Channel Fri 3rd.

GEFS - temps near norm now, slowly dropping a little through to Fri 9th with fair ens agreement. Plenty of rain esp in England and S Scotland with the emphasis on the week starting Sun 29th. Inverness snow row showing small chances of snow from that date onwards.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
ballamar
24 October 2023 19:45:55
ECM looks pretty nasty at the end - will certainly feel raw in the wind and rain.
White Meadows
24 October 2023 22:29:23

Got a down on the Met Office, have you, to post this in two threads at once? See also in Storm babet thread where it is refuted.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



”cough”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-67211434 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 October 2023 07:19:13
WX temp charts - still some warmth in week 1 around the Black Se and Italy, and a large freezing area in Scandinavia and N Russia. In week 2 the actual freezing area diminishes but the whole of NW Europe is distinctly cooler with some effect on Britain, esp Scotland. Rainfall pattern has moved since yesterday's charts: week 1 still heavy for Atlantic coastal countries from Spain up to Denmark but with the addition of an area across the Alps (which are also freezing - early snow this year?) extending to SW Russia. In week 2 heaviest  further N, from Scotland to the Baltic and NW Russia and a separate patch in Greece, though not entirely dry anywhere.

JET aimed at S France and N Spain to start with, until Wed 1st; a short interval then resuming strongly then resuming over Britain, interrupted briefly by a loop N-wards Thu 9th.

GFS Op - Atlantic LP moving E-wards to cover British Isles 980mb Sun 29th, filling before a strong W=ly spell to Mon 6th (esp stormy Fri 3rd, 965mb Orkney). Ridge of HP then extends N-wards over or just E of Britain before new W-lies on Fri 10th, mainly affecting Scotland.

ECM - like GFS at first, but the LP Sun 29th is still to the W of Ireland albeit projecting a weak trough ahead of it. ECM then sticks with its yesterday's model and instead of W-lies controlled by Icelandic LP, develops that LP further S to reach N Ireland 970mb Sat 4th with further progress blocked by HP over Baltic.

GEFS - plenty of rain in all ens members at most times in most places, most persistent along S Coast. Ens members also agree well on a gradual dip in temp to 3 or 4 C below norm around Mon 6th (beginning earlier in Scotland, say, Wed 1st) before recovering slightly. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
haghir22
25 October 2023 12:37:22
….you mean autumn?
YNWA
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2023 07:37:22
WX temps - week 1, cool/cold in the far N/NE, a little above norm for most of Europe, still some warmth near the Med esp in the E. Week 2, a more definite expansion and consolidation of the cold area, now down to the Baltic, and the rest of Europe generally colder incl Britain with a freezing spot over the Alps. Rain forecast area expanded from yesterday, week 1 everywhere except Scandinavia, S Spain and Black Sea, week 2 the same except that Black Sea also wet.

GFS Op - LP on Atlantic getting closer 980mb S Ireland Sun 29th tending to extend trough E-wards to deep LP over Russia, receiving reinforcements from Atlantic and settling 975mb Dover Straits Thu 2nd still with links to Russia, and the whole then forming a complex covering most of NW Europe Sun 5th Nov. As this fills, a new LP arrives 965mb Tue 7th Bristol Channel (deep and local - remnants of Tammy?) slowly filling but covering Britain until Sat 11th while pressure rises over Europe.

ECM - similar to GFS; the LP on Thu 3nd deeper and colder but further NW (Thu Ireland, Fri Scotland) but then different as HP appears and strengthens over Europe with LP pushed out to NW Scotland.

GEFS - normal temps at first slowly dipping to about 3-4C below norm Sun 5th before recovering. Rain in most places at most time with not much of any let-up, perhaps just a little drier in the NE later. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
nsrobins
26 October 2023 10:21:45
GFS firing a 300mph jet into the UK later next week. Could precipitate some very lively conditions, as per the 06Z offering of a 955mb low steaming into the country on Thurs.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Charmhills
26 October 2023 10:26:09

GFS firing a 300mph jet into the UK later next week. Could precipitate some very lively conditions, as per the 06Z offering of a 955mb low steaming into the country on Thurs.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Chilly, wet and cyclonic sums it up.☔🌬️

Classic November weather!!



 
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gusty
26 October 2023 10:57:31
GFS, ECM, ICON, GEM all showing a notable dart board low in close proximity to the UK at 180 hours.

The very disturbed spell continues and ramps up.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Saint Snow
26 October 2023 12:47:56

GFS, ECM, ICON, GEM all showing a notable dart board low in close proximity to the UK at 180 hours.

The very disturbed spell continues and ramps up.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



GFS, ICON and GEM all keep the centre of the low further south that ECM.

GFS especially has some very strong winds along the south coast.

ECM tracks it up more SSW-NNE so strongest winds presumably in the west.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
26 October 2023 13:13:27
Putting my Winter and snow hat on (for the next 6 months 🙂 )

A very disturbed and unsettled outlook, however the synoptics are not all too bad, if we forgive the mess.

Had this been fast forwarded a month or so, this would be a very snowy outlook for northern areas, lots of blocking, which wants to keep returning - nice to see.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+2
Gusty
26 October 2023 13:37:15
An incredibly wet week ahead as the now annual October/November South Coast monsoon kicks in.

GFS progging over 6 inches here in the next week.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/186h.htm 

Thus far we have avoided the worst of the rain this autumn (85mm so far this month). That will soon change as the SW'lies kick in.
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Russwirral
26 October 2023 15:09:03

An incredibly wet week ahead as the now annual October/November South Coast monsoon kicks in.

GFS progging over 6 inches here in the next week.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/186h.htm 

Thus far we have avoided the worst of the rain this autumn (85mm so far this month). That will soon change as the SW'lies kick in.
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Aye - TBF, the south of UK is probably in debt to rain having been so dry there over the last few years.

Nature balancing the books in the one fell swoop.  Similarly for central Scotland.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
26 October 2023 19:15:10
Potentially horrific storm next Thursday. Lets hope its wrong 

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Philrenishaw
26 October 2023 19:54:24

Potentially horrific storm next Thursday. Lets hope its wrong 

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



It looks very bad indeed
White Meadows
26 October 2023 20:31:22
….we’re all doomed!!! 


For a laugh, bbc weather has sustained 50-60mph winds for a three day period starting next Thursday lunchtime along the south coast. 
Not to mention the rainfall, oh heavens the rainfall. 

Certainly some damage to property and burst river banks if it pans out that way. 

 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2023 21:34:26

Aye - TBF, the south of UK is probably in debt to rain having been so dry there over the last few years.

Nature balancing the books in the one fell swoop.  Similarly for central Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



You were saying? Photos from the South Downs, January this year.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Right click to open enlarged in new tab
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
26 October 2023 23:51:18

Aye - TBF, the south of UK is probably in debt to rain having been so dry there over the last few years.

Nature balancing the books in the one fell swoop.  Similarly for central Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


I mean 150mm+ already down here this month and around 750mm for the year which is more than the annual average! Definitely don't need more rain!!!
Jiries
27 October 2023 06:12:03

I mean 150mm+ already down here this month and around 750mm for the year which is more than the annual average! Definitely don't need more rain!!!

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Same here any rain is not welcome and for those flooded areas will get hit with further rains to come.  Really hope a wake up call not to make silly drought threads again. Had a nightmare seeing this threads because in reality UK placed by oceans and wet latitude zone than the Med and Africa in dry zone.  So any dry spells which always shorter than wet spells should be welcoming and give the ground much needed break which most of the year wet.  
nsrobins
27 October 2023 07:06:50

Same here any rain is not welcome and for those flooded areas will get hit with further rains to come.  Really hope a wake up call not to make silly drought threads again. Had a nightmare seeing this threads because in reality UK placed by oceans and wet latitude zone than the Med and Africa in dry zone.  So any dry spells which always shorter than wet spells should be welcoming and give the ground much needed break which most of the year wet.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


You talk about what’s relevant. If there’s a drought - discuss it. Not sure why this is silly?

As much as the signal for very windy weather this weekend waned, the same signal grows for midweek next week with explosive cyclogenesis potential on the exit region of a very robust jet. Even the ensemble mean, which isn’t normally much help with positioning lows at range, has a deep low over the UK on Thurs. 
I’ve got a hunch this one will be a headliner. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2023 07:16:55
WX temp charts looking much the same for each of the next two weeks,  a freezing area and below norm over N Scandinavia and N Russia, still warm and above norm E Mediterranean and Black Sea, and a gradient between these two. If anything, the freezing area expands S-wards in week 2. Rainfall heavy on Atlantic coasts in week 1, with some extension to Balkans; in week 2 rotating with the heaviest Atlantic rain moving S to France and Spain (still some for England) and the patch in the Balkans moving NE to Russia.

JET generally strong running from Atlantic through S France, notably strong Wed 1st - Sat 4th, before breaking up into meanders and forming loops around Britain from Tue 7th.

GFS Op has LP slowly moving in from the W, a shallow centre covering Ireland 985mb Mon 30th.  A much more active LP Thu 2nd, 960mb E Anglia with secondary centes Orkney and Galway. This consolidates to a single centre 980mb N Ireland Sun 5th albeit with trough extending both E and W, finally sinking S-wards with HP establishing 1030mb Scotland from Fri 10th, with E-lies for England (maybe quite cold as the LP above links with another which has moved S-wards from the Arctic to E Baltic)

ECM generally agrees with GFS though placing the LP Thu 2nd deeper 950mb over SW Ireland, and less sign of it sinking S-wards later - still 975mb Pennines in final chart Mon 6th.

GEFS temps running close to norm (N Scotland) or a degree or two below (S England), all finishing near norm Wed 12th. Rainfall as suggested by synoptics, plenty of it everywhere in week 1 if anything wettest in the far S, becoming a little less wet in week 2 though some ens members ignore the HP forecast and keep a little going even in N Scotland. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6

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