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doctormog
19 December 2023 16:34:36

Not cold though either? So which is it?
Anyone walking into this thread looking for a steer on the Christmas outlook are gonna be none the wiser. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Based on the majority of today's output so far- slightly below average in the north and somewhere around average in the south.

This can and no doubt will change a little before Monday. So it could end up milder than average or indeed cooler across a wider area when the day comes.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 16:44:24

At no stage did the totality of the modelling imply widespread snowfall for most. That is simply my interpretation of the modelling. You clearly interpreted the modelling differently, which is fair enough. Yet it seems my interpretation will be proved right, as much as I would wish otherwise. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

You keep saying that and you may well be right. But you’re not proven yet. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 December 2023 17:02:56
The GFS 12z is actually quite a cold run again  for the  Christmas week even in the enormously over populated SE. 😄
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 17:10:27

Prizes for virtually everyone if GFS 12Z is right.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Virtually has two meanings
1. 'nearly, almost' - valid for the N & E
2. 'by means of virtual reality' - valid for the S & W
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
19 December 2023 17:11:41

Prizes for virtually everyone if GFS 12Z is right.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




5 days too late 😪

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
19 December 2023 17:17:48

You keep saying that and you may well be right. But you’re not proven yet. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Indeed, Caz. Christmas is still six days away (minus 17 hours from that) which is a rather long time in weather forecasting terms.

We have occasionally seen forecasts for half that range unexpectedly go wrong in the past.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 17:43:08
MetO being a wet (rather than a snowy) blanket. To take a couple of snow-prone locations, Inverness, 7C, rain; Buxton, 7C, rain, for Xmas Day.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
19 December 2023 17:50:12
CField
19 December 2023 17:50:40
See gfs 12z replacing some of the coffee creams for 🍊 orange lol
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
19 December 2023 18:07:12

Not cold though either? So which is it?
Anyone walking into this thread looking for a steer on the Christmas outlook are gonna be none the wiser. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



That would be because the charts aren’t yet offering clarity, wouldn’t it?   It still looks to me that we’re in the battleground zone with two air masses ebbing and flowing across the country.  The charts have oscillated around this general theme for some days.  

I think for most of England we can rule out ‘very cold’ but anything between slightly mild, average and slightly cool is still on the table.  The odds shift a little in favour of colder/less mild as you move north, but that’s not unusual in this pattern, is it?

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


MRazzell
19 December 2023 18:30:14
You know the outlook isn't great when the thread narrative deteriorates into bickering.

We're about 48 hours overdue a moderators tidy up...
Matt.
White Meadows
19 December 2023 18:36:56
Sheesh, Merry Christmas all.

Glad to escape the misery and wet & wild fortnight to come back home. Here in NC it’s crystal blue skies, completely still and hovering around the 3c mark. 
 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 19:02:27

Not cold though either? So which is it?
Anyone walking into this thread looking for a steer on the Christmas outlook are gonna be none the wiser. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Anyone who’s followed this thread religiously is no wiser either. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
White Meadows
19 December 2023 19:08:43

Anyone who’s followed this thread religiously is no wiser either. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 


🤣🤣🤣
fastidiousness and disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing is the name of the game. Must be winter on TWO

Seriously though it’s going to be around or shortly after New Year before meaningful eye candy pops up again so maybe best everyone took a break.

 
doctormog
19 December 2023 19:11:20
The best I can do in terms of a snapshot for Christmas Day at this range is (until the ECM ensemble data come out at least) the t850hPa mean deviation charts and it shows nothing extreme just a bit above or below average:

UserPostedImage

There is of course uncertainty given the fact it is still 5 days out. It’s not a particularly exciting picture as things stand and is neither exceptionally mild or cold in most places.

The spaghetti is a little more al dente  than before so as you would expect the picture is firming up a little as the timescale shortens.
 
johncs2016
19 December 2023 19:17:43
At the moment, we have quite a big area of high pressure to our SW (which of course, is that same Azores High which was posted missing back in the summer when we were looking for that to deliver some decent weather in these parts).

If we could somehow get that high pressure up to Greenland, that could set up some nice northern blocking which might open the door to colder air coming in from the east or north and possibly even hanging around for a while.

However, all of the latest model output is showing that this is unlikely to happen and as long as that high pressure remains to the south of us, we are always going to be at the mercy of mild Atlantic air coming in around the top of it on a very powerful jet stream which is what appears to be happening now.

This doesn't necessarily mean that colder air won't get in at any time, but any colder northerly shots which we do get are never going to be anything other than brief with that, with the next push of milder air never all that far away and of course, that is if that colder air even manages to get in at any time.

In every other season during this year (spring, summer and even the autumn), there was no shortage of northern blocking which of course, was then responsible for that poor summer which we had after the very good start to that back in June.

Now that we are into that time of year though when we could do with some northern blocking to bring us some decent cold and wintry weather, it is now completely absent and that is just typical of the weather in this country.

According to what I can see in the model output, I'm not holding out any hope of any decent cold spell any time soon, and I'm not even convinced that an SSW event in the very near future will save us either.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
UncleAlbert
19 December 2023 21:11:29


According to what I can see in the model output, I'm not holding out any hope of any decent cold spell any time soon, and I'm not even convinced that an SSW event in the very near future will save us either.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



As with so many recent winters, cold air may not be too far away but the atmosphere is in to much of a rush to let it settle on the UK.  Cold air stagnation is a term that we do not use much these days and at this point in the winter you do not even need much of an HLB to do this.  In fact current and recent model sequences have thrown up quite a few examples of where favourable conditions for (CAS) have started to materialise, but of course it all soon gets jetted away.  Symptomatic of this is the demise of the 48 hour+ freezing fog. 
Downpour
19 December 2023 22:10:25
One of the big developments over the Christmas holiday itself is a drier picture in the SE now trending on some models. Could be 11c and sunny on Christmas Day / Boxing Day which would be very pleasant after subsequent years of rain. We shall see. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Jiries
20 December 2023 06:36:04

One of the big developments over the Christmas holiday itself is a drier picture in the SE now trending on some models. Could be 11c and sunny on Christmas Day / Boxing Day which would be very pleasant after subsequent years of rain. We shall see. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Output of low 10s and mild nights over the weekend to Xmas day are a blessing for less heating costs and avoid cold rain, fog and low pointless temps until models show real cold output appear to take interest but nothing atm for this month.  
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 December 2023 07:30:46

One of the big developments over the Christmas holiday itself is a drier picture in the SE now trending on some models. Could be 11c and sunny on Christmas Day / Boxing Day which would be very pleasant after subsequent years of rain. We shall see. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



After looking at the MetO output https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map  (see both rainfall and type of pptn options) I was going to compliment you on correctly calling mild for the south and some snow showers for the Highlands, despite some ad hominem remarks.

But you may have gone a little too far suggesting sunny for Christmas Day - it looks as if places south of the M4 will have to wait until late on in the day before the rain and likely the associated cloud move off to the south.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
20 December 2023 07:47:34
Some more interesting scenarios appearing post Xmas - some of those surprise snowfall charts. No sign of sustained cold but enough to keep the interest in wintry weather if that’s what you want
doctormog
20 December 2023 07:49:28
Interesting to see that the GFS 00z op run shows snow showers for a time here in Aberdeen to sea level on Christmas Day. Personally I would say it is a less likely option but then again this is the thread for discussing what the model output actually shows and that’s what it shows!

More generally the overall picture, still with some uncertainty, is the same in this morning’s output as it was yesterday - slightly cooler than average in the north and slightly milder in the south. There is time for things to change in either direction so any forecast for Christmas Day would be brave.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 December 2023 08:05:31
WX charts - mild for W Europe bar Scandinavia in week 1 (to 28th) and although cold in Russia, still much more above average than it should be. The cold begins a general return in week 2, freezing weather approaching the Black Sea to the south, covering Poland and E Germany in the west, a touch in Scotland; and ultra-cold in Finland and N Russia. Pptn for N Atlantic (NW Scotland getting a hammering again), N Sea, Germany, Poland in week 1; much more widespread in week 2, something for most of Europe, especially Ireland, Alps and Turkey.

GFS Op - HP 1050mb mid-Atlantic now moving to Spain and declining 1025mb Tue 26th while LP either over Scandinavia or the N Sea brings in first strong NW-lies, then W-ly and a brief shot of N-ly on Christmas Day. Then a spell of nondescript zonal W-lies before LP revives Sat 30th (980mb Faeroes linking to 975mb N Sea) bringing back the NW-lies, becoming quite strong N-ly to Wed 3rd before the mid-Atlantic HP resumes Fri 5th 1035mb bringing Atlantic influence back.

ECM - begins to deviate from GFS as early as Sun 24th, with HP further N so W-lies for Christmas Day (though still from a cool source over Scotland). The succeeding W-ly spell only lasts to Thu 28th when LP from the Atlantic moves in 980mb Ireland and develops into a N-S trough from Svalbard to Brittany bringing cold air well south.

GEFS - temps dip but then mild 24th or 25th before another sharp dip to a little below norm  on  26th. Then the usual scramble of ens members but unusually converging again later with suggestions of a cool spell around Tue 2nd. In the S rain starts around 25th and persists for the following week; in Scotland some heavy rain around the 23rd (probably snow for the Highlands), drier for a couple of days before pptn resumes.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Crepuscular Ray
20 December 2023 08:53:10
Having just looked at the big three 00Z models there is still some interest for us living up here

GFS shows it cold for the big day with a strong NW flow so Scotland could see some snow showers? There are cold shots further ahead too especially around Hogmanay

MetO shows a slider low across central England after Boxing Day with SE and E winds across Scotland, that's new!

As usual, ECM is more sensible but still very mobile! I think there are still opportunities for snow in the next two weeks especially the further north you are. It all looks very mobile and no long fetch SW winds which I loathe!
 
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Retron
20 December 2023 09:07:47

Having just looked at the big three 00Z models there is still some interest for us living up here
 

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


I envy you - down here, the only interest is how many 10C+ days in a row we can get, or whether we might scrape a frost before everyone dies of old age. Current modelling from the MetO has 10 10C+ days in a row, with Christmas Day itself being a mere 3C above average (and the night leading into it is 7C above average)...

FWIW, the ECM's stratosphere forecast has continued to show less of a chance of a SSW than before, a trend over the past few days.

EDIT: I see the usual US cold plunge is going to happen next week. Ordinarily I'd be groaning, as it usually fires up the jet and brings mild crud for us, but as we already have that - maybe it'll flip things the other way!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.png 
 
Leysdown, north Kent

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