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The Beast from the East
27 December 2023 11:08:51
Control run doesnt seem interested
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
27 December 2023 11:16:20
GFS 6z is another run that starts the fun about the 6th ends with a massive snowstorm for most of England. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
27 December 2023 11:30:52

Control run doesnt seem interested

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes and P28 shows a very wintry picture at times.🤡
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
27 December 2023 11:37:09

Control run doesnt seem interested

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



unlike GEM control! Trends heading towards a colder spell there will always be some perts that don’t buy in.
Gusty
27 December 2023 12:16:35
Is it just me but all this excitement of impending proper cold in the New Year, circa 6th January onwards seems a little premature ?

I'm normally very optimistic but for now I'm very very unconvinced.

Very very early days given we're talking 264 hours away.



 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+2
Retron
27 December 2023 12:20:59

Is it just me but all this excitement of impending proper cold in the New Year, circa 6th January onwards seems a little premature ?
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The fun of the chase is in spotting something and hunting it down, getting closer and closer before finally catching it. The fun isn't saying "it's not going to happen so I won't bother" - anyone can do that!

That said, no, I'm not expecting it to suddenly turn cold on the 6th. What I am expecting, and it's why I restarted my ensemble watch, is for a cold spell to happen by the middle of January, as the result of a few things including that strat reversal / weakening. I could be completely wrong, we may well end up with nothing more than the dross we have at the moment, but it's worth a go.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
Gusty
27 December 2023 12:33:26

The fun of the chase is in spotting something and hunting it down, getting closer and closer before finally catching it. The fun isn't saying "it's not going to happen so I won't bother" - anyone can do that!

That said, no, I'm not expecting it to suddenly turn cold on the 6th. What I am expecting, and it's why I restarted my ensemble watch, is for a cold spell to happen by the middle of January, as the result of a few things including that strat reversal / weakening. I could be completely wrong, we may well end up with nothing more than the dross we have at the moment, but it's worth a go.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Oooh don't get me wrong I'm up for a chase but it all feels a little too soon when the ensembles are currently as they are. Give me 2 or 3 more days and I'll proper get into the spirit of it all. 

Maybe I'm just trying to protect the less hardened millenial generation of model watchers from the all too familiar sinking feeling when it all comes crashing south. 



 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+5
CField
27 December 2023 13:29:58
UserPostedImagebe very interesting what the reality will be around Jan 8-10 period or whether heights to the SW or a strengthening polar vortex off W Greenland gives us the usual default...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
27 December 2023 13:51:56

UserPostedImagebe very interesting what the reality will be around Jan 8-10 period or whether heights to the SW or a strengthening polar vortex off W Greenland gives us the usual default...

Originally Posted by: CField 



24 hours on and we now have the ensemble mean dipping into reversal territory; quite a marked drop from 25th

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312260000 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
27 December 2023 14:15:16

Still not convinced about this cold spell. Remember last time! 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 




Yep, that December/Xmas farce has left a mental scar. I really thought it would finally happen once again.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Matty H
27 December 2023 14:46:15
When is the SSW projected to happen? I’ve always understood it can go on for weeks and then can by many more weeks before any effect is felt at the surface, and even then there’s no guarantee it’ll be cold and snowy
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gandalf The White
27 December 2023 15:20:19

When is the SSW projected to happen? I’ve always understood it can go on for weeks and then can by many more weeks before any effect is felt at the surface, and even then there’s no guarantee it’ll be cold and snowy

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I posted this link a little earlier: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312260000 

The latest ensemble forecast is for the reversal to happen around the middle of next week and last for a week. 

Neil posted that the expectation was for a fairly quick response in the troposphere. What that response means for our tiny corner of the northern hemisphere is anyone’s guess, but we will know soon enough.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+4
Matty H
27 December 2023 15:31:37

I posted this link a little earlier: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312260000 

The latest ensemble forecast is for the reversal to happen around the middle of next week and last for a week. 

Neil posted that the expectation was for a fairly quick response in the troposphere. What that response means for our tiny corner of the northern hemisphere is anyone’s guess, but we will know soon enough.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Thanks. My take is it’s pointless pinning any faith on charts two weeks out at any time. With one of these projected, it’s always been the narrative that the models are poor at modelling the effects of it when it’s underway, let alone before it’s even started and there’s no certainty what part of the strat is going to be affected, or the direct affect on the PV. Does it move it, does it obliterate it? Who knows?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Rob K
27 December 2023 15:38:07
6Z GEFS are rather less convincing for any cold spell than the 0Z. But both op and control are decentish.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
27 December 2023 15:56:57

I posted this link a little earlier: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312260000 

The latest ensemble forecast is for the reversal to happen around the middle of next week and last for a week. 

Neil posted that the expectation was for a fairly quick response in the troposphere. What that response means for our tiny corner of the northern hemisphere is anyone’s guess, but we will know soon enough.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Interesting link, Thank you...
Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
nsrobins
27 December 2023 16:46:44
12Z GFS - a small variation in the theme. The westerly momentum at 1000hPa fizzles out and what lobe of lower heights that are left looks like slinking away SE.
There's only one route from that point (264hrs) and you know what that is 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Downpour
27 December 2023 17:02:48

Yep, that December/Xmas farce has left a mental scar. I really thought it would finally happen once again.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I didn’t think that was on either - as I said at the time. That said, I do think there could be more interest in January at some point, but it’s so far away it’s not worth going into the detail at this stage. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
27 December 2023 17:10:16

12Z GFS - a small variation in the theme. The westerly momentum at 1000hPa fizzles out and what lobe of lower heights that are left looks like slinking away SE.
There's only one route from that point (264hrs) and you know what that is

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes the theme is consistent, although given the timescale I suspect there will be a lot of developments before then. In the short term it is still looking very unsettled.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
27 December 2023 17:41:02
Fantastic 12z GEFS ensembles tonight - by 240 the majority are blocked.



 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
27 December 2023 17:54:57

Fantastic 12z GEFS ensembles tonight - by 240 the majority are blocked.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


And by 264 even the mean chart has a weak easterly over England and Wales, with a low to the SW.

GEM and its ensembles aren't as bullish, but even they show around half the members having a blocked outcome by 240.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
27 December 2023 18:02:44
One of the other things worth mentioning is the sheer depth of cold modelled over Scandinavia, both in the short and medium term. I favour the Wxmaps charts for this, namely because I've used them for over 20 years. I can't recall many occasions when -20s and below have been so widespread for so long over Scandinavia, even 2009 and 2010 aren't as cold over such a large area.

Now, just because it's very cold up there doesn't mean it'll get cold here, but what it does mean is that in the event of a NE'ly flow the cold air is already close by...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

UserPostedImage

 
Leysdown, north Kent
tallyho_83
27 December 2023 18:03:09
12z control looks like setting up prolonged blocking to our NE. 👍
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CField
27 December 2023 18:14:33

12z control looks like setting up prolonged blocking to our NE. 👍

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

tbh it's been there all winter and will be all the way through.As a cold weather lover I sincerely hope it moves SW but I get this feeling trying to get it here to the UK is like trying to get through to the Dartford Tunnel ,painfully slow if any progress at all.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Whether Idle
27 December 2023 20:59:00
 A week 2 January cold spell is  probably not going to happen IMHO as shown. It’s way too far off to be paying more than casual attention and as we get closer the Azores high will nose in and be more influential. ,,,Maybe a second bite in week 3 of the month once background factors  have had a chance to percolate into the troposphere ?
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 December 2023 21:11:30
ECM ensembles taking a dive after the 8th. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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