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Rob K
10 July 2024 17:20:06

Signs are we could be looking at a shift for the last 3rd of the month - get the BBQ’s ready and the pools up

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Based on what output?

GFS 12Z finishes with a fat LP right over the UK, which would give me yet another Yorkshire washout.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2024 06:59:07
WX average temps still much the same pattern for the next two weeks with the isotherms dipping S-wards around Britain for cool weather here and rising N-wards over the eastern Baltic. A glimmer of hope in that the 'dip' is less pronounced in week 2 and England at least is given a rise in temp of 2 or 3C. Rain still fairly general for Europe N of the Alps in week 1, tending to move SE-wards in week 2, not entirely leaving Britain; dry areas developing in SW France and Finland.

GFS Op - to start with, HP for W Britain and LP over the N Sea but a general decrease in pressure by Mon 16th. New LP running NE-wards past the Hebrides Wed 17th, pushing a brief ridge of HP ahead of itself; but then changing direction, turning S-wards and converting to LP for all of Britain Sat 20th. Only after that does HP move in from the SW and establish 1020mb England Tue 23rd for the week - perhaps something thundery moving up from France Sat 27th.

ECM - rather like GEM but by Sun 21st pressure is recovering quickly and LP has retreated N-wards

GEM - Keeps the new LP on the 17th (see GFS above) out near Iceland so pressure quite high for Britain next week; but that LP in the end does move in and cover Britain Sat 20th, though not affecting S England as much as shown in GFS.

GEFS - cool to Mon 15th, then mean and most ens members close to norm through to 27th. Op & control on the cooler side later on. Rain for the S & SW most likely Fri 12th and Tue 16th otherwise relatively little; Scotland & NW England dry for a few days then some rain appearing on many days to 27th; E England likely to see a little rain at any time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
idj20
11 July 2024 11:10:22
Has the GFS got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning? The 06z always seems to be the lousiest run of the four runs per day. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
11 July 2024 12:15:50
Every time we get high pressure over the UK, that huge, spawn-of-satan blob of low heights over Greenland/NE Canada births another low to blow the high pressure away

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
11 July 2024 15:30:10

Every time we get high pressure over the UK, that huge, spawn-of-satan blob of low heights over Greenland/NE Canada births another low to blow the high pressure away

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, indeed. The GFS is now forecasting autumnal gales for weekend 20/21 July. It just gets worse and worse and worse. 😞
LeedsLad123
11 July 2024 19:39:17

Every time we get high pressure over the UK, that huge, spawn-of-satan blob of low heights over Greenland/NE Canada births another low to blow the high pressure away

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I’ve given up on this summer now - it’s clear that we’re not going to get more than a couple of warm, sunny days in a row. I don’t even care about heatwaves - just a sustained period of pleasant average conditions would be fine, but even that is asking for too much.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
+1
Jiries
11 July 2024 19:54:53

I’ve given up on this summer now - it’s clear that we’re not going to get more than a couple of warm, sunny days in a row. I don’t even care about heatwaves - just a sustained period of pleasant average conditions would be fine, but even that is asking for too much.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


So do I as now daylight drawing in and we didn't felt those long day light was usable this year.  Agreed about average as here is 23C this month had not reached yet.  First time I see some rain over Santa Claus village and really surprised the temperatures remain so warm 16C in a Arctic circle area under the rain which here should be low 20's in any rainfall not low 10's.  Hurricane Beryl wasn't able to destroy this prolonged boring pattern so far.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2024 06:26:46
WX temp chart still showing no sign of high summer for Britain or indeed N Europe generally. Countries near the NE Atlantic (esp Scotland, Norway) cool and if anything cooler in week 2.  At the same time the hot weather currently close to the Baltic retreats S-wards and real heat is spread across the Mediterranean from Spain to Greece and on to Ukraine. Most of the rain in both weeks is around the Baltic and the Alps, but it looks like more approaching Britain from the west in week 2.

GFS Op - Ridge of HP to west of Britain steadily dissipating as pressure falls widely across Britain; by Fri 19th LP localised 1005mb Rockall. Pressure remains slack and on the low side for Europe as a whole. The LP moves off to Norway and while the Azores HP makes a tentative move towards France, LP is back from the NW a week later, 1000mb Rockall Thu 25th.  It then looks as if a repeat performance is scheduled for the following week.

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z, can't wait for download today) Not unlike GFS but Friday's LP less localised and slower to move away.

GEM - also agrees with GFS, but the LP returns from the NW earlier than Thu 25th, indeed getting quite close to Scotland on the last frame of the sequence on Mon 22nd.

GEFS - temps very close to norm in N but  more variation in S, likely cooler now and again Sat 20th and (possibly) Sat 27th; a little warmer in between these minima. Briefly dry in the SE around Thu 18th, rather wet in Scotland around Sat 20th, otherwise small amounts of rain at any time

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
12 July 2024 07:06:11
There has been a real deterioration on the GEFS, from the steady climb of pressure and 850mb temperature forecast a few days ago from mid-month, we now have a "triple dip" pattern with the minima perfectly coinciding with the next three weekends, and mean 850s never even struggling into double digits. Very poor.

ECM does at least look a bit more optimistic for next weekend than the GFS does.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+2
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2024 08:11:05
Oh dear. Things have gone from promising to indifferent to poor. 
Major heat building in southern Spain next week but it can't even get into France let alone up towards the UK. The southerly jet swipes it away and keeps the hot weather bottled up to the south and south east. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ozone_aurora
12 July 2024 08:25:29

I’ve given up on this summer now - it’s clear that we’re not going to get more than a couple of warm, sunny days in a row. I don’t even care about heatwaves - just a sustained period of pleasant average conditions would be fine, but even that is asking for too much.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


It's the dreaded St Swithin's legend. If it rains on St Swithin's day (which is highly likely for many areas) it will rain for the next 40 days. It has done so last year. Weather patterns established now frequently persists for the rest of the summer. Yes, I too have given up on this summer though I still feel there's hope for September (when the kids get back to school).
ozone_aurora
12 July 2024 08:30:01
BTW, which other northern hemisphere areas are having cooler than normal summers? Does anyone know a link to current/recent global surface temperature maps?
doctormog
12 July 2024 08:35:38

BTW, which other northern hemisphere areas are having cooler than normal summers? Does anyone know a link to current/recent global surface temperature maps?

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


This is just a snapshot of today. 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_npole-sat_t2anom_d1.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
ozone_aurora
12 July 2024 10:00:47

This is just a snapshot of today. 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_npole-sat_t2anom_d1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Cheers!
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2024 10:48:01

This is just a snapshot of today. 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_npole-sat_t2anom_d1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Just the other day I had a quick scan of the Canadian weather and the current snapshot is reflective of how their summer has been so far in general, i.e. coolish, but the forecast was indicating a general warming trend. 

Incidentally, the Canada, Australia and New Zealand official Met Org websites are all excellent. With quick access to charts, clickable maps with forecasts and easy to navigate historical data  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Saint Snow
12 July 2024 13:09:51
No comments on the GFS 6z?

It's one of the best runs in the past few months. Not plumey-hot, but much more settled.

Starts off the middle of next week when a little high inflates over Germany, bringing a nice warm flow over the SE. Low pressure to the NW means Scotland/NI miss out.

The high  and drifts north a little north before dissipating as the AH ridges strongly, covering the whole of the UK by the end of next Saturday. That low to the NW has filled and moved away.

The ridged AH then splits through the following week and the northern portion centres over the Norway coast before expanding to cover Scandinavia (ridging WSW'ward enough to cover the UK) and introducing an easterly drift, which takes us to the end of the run, with the flow more unstable across the south as pressure declines over Central Europe.

It's a bit of an outlier with little ENS support - but not a million miles away from the broad ECM & GEM evolutions (both show that high over Germany'ish next week, then the AH ridging towards/over the UK - but ECM run ends before we can see if it develops like the GFS run, whilst GEM has that low to the NW bolstered by a further low then toppling the ridging AH)

But every decent spell has to start somewhere!!



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Rob K
12 July 2024 14:51:36

No comments on the GFS 6z?

It's one of the best runs in the past few months. Not plumey-hot, but much more settled.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It's a lot better than the 0Z, for sure. But there were a lot of runs as good or better a week or so ago, and they never got any closer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2024 16:00:17

It's a lot better than the 0Z, for sure. But there were a lot of runs as good or better a week or so ago, and they never got any closer.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


They did and that's what worries me. Often there in the outer reaches of the GFS but never getting close to even the semi-reliable. Just like in winter, chasing the end of the rainbow.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
picturesareme
12 July 2024 17:33:02

This is just a snapshot of today. 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_npole-sat_t2anom_d1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_spole-sat_t2anom_d1.png 

Also the well below average winter continues for southern South America 
+1
ozone_aurora
12 July 2024 18:52:31

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_spole-sat_t2anom_d1.png

Also the well below average winter continues for southern South America 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Cheers, too!

Yes, I've been following the winter weather of southern hemisphere, and noticed a cold snap over Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay (as already posted on Unusual World Weather). Buenos Aires had a maximum of 8 C a few days ago, although the can very rarely be as low as 4 C with sleet, as has happened in July 2007 (another year with rubbish summer for the UK).

Asuncion (Paraguay) maximum temp looks like to be only 11 or 12 C (similar to NE UK today). A typical warm winter's day there would be 30 C and probably quite humid.
White Meadows
12 July 2024 22:36:20
July now running at -1.6c below normal. 
After last month’s autumnal feel it’s all pretty shocking really:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

+1
Jiries
13 July 2024 05:00:53

July now running at -1.6c below normal. 
After last month’s autumnal feel it’s all pretty shocking really:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


At least they cannot kept falsify their lies so called above average nonsense as it was cold Spring and summer this year.   Autumn for sure it will be above average and next winter well above average so meto will rightly say that and I am with it.   
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2024 07:12:24
WX temp chart - still cool for NW Europe(i.e. mainly Britain, France, Norway), warm E Europe up to Finland, really hot near the Black Sea and Aegean. Some levelling out in week2, Britain warmer, Finland cooler, but nothing to write home about. Rain fairly widespread for Europe N of the Alps in both weeks, heaviest near Sweden.

GFS Op - a series of (mostly) shallow troughs moving across Britain from the W with brief intervals of HP, until Fri 26th when the Azores high moves in (for real this time?). Troughs noted now (in N Sea), Wed 17th (from Ireland heading to Scotland), Sun 21st (along the Channel) and Wed 24th (past NE Scotland into N Sea).

ECM - similar pattern to GFS but with variations in location and timing. Troughs now, Tue 16th (Wales), Thu 18th  (from Ireland heading to Scotland), Mon 22nd (Hebrides).

GEM - similar to above until Wed 17th when the incoming trough deepens considerably (985mb) and then moves N to Iceland and stays there, bringing in W-lies which last through to Tue 23rd.

GEFS - temps soon back to norm, then the mean stays there with different ens members inconsistently above and below but within a fairly narrow range. Rain by  compass points; in the S probable near Tue 16th and less likely Sun 21st, otherwise very little; in the E heavier now but smaller amounts at intervals later; in the NW dry for a few days then significant amounts throughout.. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Gandalf The White
13 July 2024 09:00:44

July now running at -1.6c below normal. 
After last month’s autumnal feel it’s all pretty shocking really:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I went out to water the vegetables last night and it absolutely had an autumnal feel; due, of course, to the northerly feed and cloud cover, but it certainly didn’t have that summery feel.  Today feels like it might be more of the same but next week looks a lot better.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
13 July 2024 09:04:42

I went out to water the vegetables last night and it absolutely had an autumnal feel; due, of course, to the northerly feed and cloud cover, but it certainly didn’t have that summery feel.  Today feels like it might be more of the same but next week looks a lot better.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Exactly the expression we used yesterday evening. Peter! Not much improved today. I managed to mow the lawn. I'd been hoping to strim the "No Mow May" jungle before settling to watch the Tennis but it turned wet. Tomorrow looks like being a heavy sport-watching day!
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
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