It was hot last June and at times September !
How quickly people forget, eh?
Here's the CET graph for last year. June was astonishingly warm, with a few records set, as was September. August was your standard "average" (for 91-20) month, i.e. warm compared to the 61-90 averages, and July... started hot, but was then a little below average for most (it was around average here).
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2023/daily_maxtemp_cet_2023.png Only one day last summer managed to get into the bottom 5% of all time temperatures, whereas there were loads (as usual) in the top 5%... and that goes back centuries, remember!
Back to the models, and there's no doubt about it - we'll be recording another warmer than average month, which will be 16 in a row. Will the streak finally break in May? Not much chance of that, and I note the Met Office text forecast contains the somewhat ominous (from my POV) text saying:
Temperatures likely to trend upwards, with the chance of a warm to very warm spell in some southern and eastern parts,and for the longer range bit, a reminder of what we expect at this time of year:
Also worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.In other words, it'll get warmer regardless of whether we remain in a northerly flow. Certainly the GFS isn't at all keen to move the jet north, which is quite unusual at this time of year!
Edited by user
25 April 2024 16:52:20
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