I'm not saying this spring in particular has been normal - it's clearly been much wetter and duller than average almost everywhere. I'm just saying that the pattern of west = sunnier and east = cloudier is common at this time of year, we see it pretty much every year at some point between March and June. Last May/June is a great example - the first 10 days of June 2023 were pretty chilly and cloudy here, it wasn't until the winds switched to a more S/SE direction that we got hotter, sunnier conditions.

Yes the more recent few days have been quite typical for the time of year or at least later in spring. It’s the preceding. 6 to 8 weeks that it follows that is the problem. West being “best” at this time of the year, or May in particular in not unusual, it’s just that the lack of dryness and brightness elsewhere doesn’t help. If I was ever to book a holiday in the NW it would be in May as that seems to be the time it gets the best weather. Sadly there is still an easterly or northerly component to much of the “reliable” outlook so for some parts the poor run of weather continues.

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According to the longest running set of weather records in the world - the Central England Temperature - the maximum temperature has been 2.5C above the average. Our overnight or minimum temperature has been even more anomalous at 3.6C above the average during the first half of April. We perhaps have not noticed the lack of cold and frosty nights compared to how it has felt at times during the day.-

Simon King in https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp4g7ex1zpeo 

It looks as if all the cloud which has made daytime miserable on the east coast, and looks likely to continue this week, has had the 'silver lining' of preventing serious frosts; and that has pushed the overall average up while being unobserved at night by the man in the street.

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Yuk.

All models now show the high retrogressing into the mid-Atlantic, which allows a low to sink over the west of the UK through Fri/Sat/Sun.

From a promising set-up (for the western half of the UK at least), to 'garbage'... the weather gods always seem to find a way to bring dross.

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Spring warmth remains an illusion this morning in the far reachings of FI. If it wasn’t for this pseudo-above average CET skewed by a lack of frosts then one might laugh in the face of the climate change doom mongerers. 

Anticyclonic easteries, in my opinion, are becoming less frequent, but longer lasting.  Yes, I know I live in a different location but we share in the same broader weather patterns that affect the UK. 

North or east located anticyclonic spells are, as Leeds lad says, more frequent at this time of year than at any other. The rainfall and SLP stats are testament to that. This is also the period of the year when ocean temps are relatively cool. Which makes one ask, were the cooler waters of winters past more conducive in allowing higher level blocking to form? 

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WX offers some optimism but not until week2 (Jam tomorrow but never jam today?) Week 1 as for so long has cold air flooding W Europe and warmth pushing N past the Black Sea plus a trace of warmth in S Spain. In week 2, there is quite a turnaround with a transfer of warmth from Ukraine into N continental Europe, S Spain getting hot, and even Britain somewhat milder. Rain distributed across Europe in week 1, in week 2 for the Atlantic, Alps and W Mediterranean, and Turkey and correspondingly a dry, in places very dry, area developing from Biscay to N Sea to Baltic.

GFS Op - HP currently to the W of Britain moving ever W-wards and allowing LP to approach the N Sea with N-ly winds continuing to run down the east coast and even strengthen Wed 24th. Then an Atlantic LP runs SE-wards to Biscay 995mb Fri 26th drawing in slack but cold air across Britain. The LP centre then does a tour of Britain (via England, Scotland and Ireland in that order) finally clearing to France Thu 2nd. Although this brings back E-lies, they are from a milder source than at present, and the final frame Thu 9th shows HP building in from the SW.

ECM - rather like GFS, but the LP deepens significantly while touring Britain

GEFS - temps returning to norm around Sat 27th and mean staying there throughout, with variation in ens members setting i from around Thu 2nd. Small but frequent amounts of rain from the 27th in the S, rather more from that date in the N esp NW, but perhaps a little drier in the 2nd week of May. 

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Please stay on topic. I've had to move a number of posts this morning. 

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I recently pulled the weather records for 1960-2023 from OpenMeteo for my location. I've loaded them up into an SQL Server so I should be able to do some sort of analysis on it.

Count of hours in the year with an average bearing between 191 and 259.
WDay    CountSWBearing
1960    2956
1961    3548
1962    2811
1963    2930
1964    2862
1965    2948
1966    3046
1967    3465
1968    2521
1969    2324
1970    2680
1971    2767
1972    2662
1973    2692
1974    2912
1975    2773
1976    2232
1977    2905
1978    2678
1979    3269
1980    3011
1981    3105
1982    3159
1983    2891
1984    2660
1985    3194
1986    3118
1987    2580
1988    3088
1989    3202
1990    3526
1991    2798
1992    3240
1993    2745
1994    3571
1995    2609
1996    2396
1997    2884
1998    3356
1999    3393
2000    3599
2001    2620
2002    2971
2003    2721
2004    2984
2005    2838
2006    3050
2007    2864
2008    3530
2009    3087
2010    2180
2011    3488
2012    3274
2013    2814
2014    3177
2015    3533
2016    3103
2017    3186
2018    2663
2019    3113
2020    3369
2021    2842
2022    2996
2023    3314

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You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

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Spring warmth remains an illusion this morning in the far reachings of FI. If it wasn’t for this pseudo-above average CET skewed by a lack of frosts then one might laugh in the face of the climate change doom mongerers. 

Weather is not climate.  But then you know this; or should.

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You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

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Thanks very much for putting that together, it's really appreciated. 👍 

Maybe it's different up here or maybe it's just my perception!

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Abysmal output continues. Each of GFS, ECM and GEM are unsettled throughout, with low pressure being over/close to the UK throughout on each.

 

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Abysmal output continues. Each of GFS, ECM and GEM are unsettled throughout, with low pressure being over/close to the UK throughout on each.

 

I don't mean to go OT - but I have to say this is starting to have a 2008 or 2012 look about it.

☹

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Thanks very much for putting that together, it's really appreciated. 👍 

Maybe it's different up here or maybe it's just my perception!

I suspect it's a bit of both - the jet has been further south than usual for quite a bit of time this past 6 months, meaning lows further south (=rain in the south, but still with SW'lies in the far south) and more easterlies for you folks to the north of the lows.

FWIW that doesn't look like changing much in the medium term either, with the jet remaining further south than you'd expect in our neck of the woods.

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I suspect it's a bit of both - the jet has been further south than usual for quite a bit of time this past 6 months, meaning lows further south (=rain in the south, but still with SW'lies in the far south) and more easterlies for you folks to the north of the lows.

FWIW that doesn't look like changing much in the medium term either, with the jet remaining further south than you'd expect in our neck of the woods.

Can confirm this somewhat. Many of the winter lows passed directly over my head, which help quell storm potential and leaving us stuck in a sort of dank, grey dondrum for much of the time. Big storms that used to affect this part of the world depend tightly wound lows passing between here and Iceland, but that never really happens anymore. 

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Can confirm this somewhat. Many of the winter lows passed directly over my head, which help quell storm potential and leaving us stuck in a sort of dank, grey dondrum for much of the time. Big storms that used to affect this part of the world depend tightly wound lows passing between here and Iceland, but that never really happens anymore. 

All type of LP and HP had changed a lot now we get same LP for months, HP in wrong place so we not getting any seasonal weather with summery weather in summer or wintery weather in winter.  On the old days of model watching I used to see LP or HP move east freely so we get more varietyof weather, that including warm dry settled spells but something now preventing it happening and get stuck with same LP or wrong placed HP is a lose-lose for UK.

WX temps less optimistic than yesterday. Week 1 is still cool for NW Europe incl Britain, though towards the east temps are nearer to norm. Then in week 2 warm weather approaches; from the east but as shown today only gets as far as E Germany, and from the south but does not cross the Pyrenees. Britain and the Baltic still cool. Rain forecast quite generally for Europe in both weeks, in week 1 a less wet area near Poland and in week 2  less wet areas for Spain and N Norway.

GFS Op - opening consistently with yesterday, starting with LP over the N Sea feeding N-lies affecting esp the E Coast followed by another cold LP running SE-wards to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th which then reverses direction. Its centre performs anti-clockwise circuits over all parts of Britain, central pressure ca 1000mb, but this persists for longer than shown yesterday, not relenting until Wed 8th when it moves to Denmark (yesterday shown as moving to France). After that HP moves up from the SW to become centred Brittany bringing much milder weather.

ECM - is briefly better than GFS; the LP Sat 27th only does one circuit before departing S-wards reaching Portugal Thu 2nd 1000mb. However pressure then falls over S Norway 1000mb Sat 4th bringing back the N/NE-lies albeit this time not directly linked to the Arctic.

GEFS - temps rise back to norm Sun 28thand the mean stays there through to Fri 10th but with ens agreement breaking up after Wed 1st - typically one very cold run balanced by 2 or 3 very warm ones out of the 33. Rain in small quantities from time to time, most likely around Sat 27th (heavier in N & W at this time) but dates around Thu 2nd and Mon 6th also to be watched, and more likely to be continual in the west.

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You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

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The Open-Meteo resource is amazing! I've done something similar for a point offshore Aberdeen at 57.0N 1.5W - winds over land here can be quite strongly influenced by topography so I wanted an open water location to try and sample the gradient rather than local flow.

I used hourly data from 1940 to 2023 and split winds into 8 bins each of 45 degrees, so SW ranges from 202 to 247 degrees. The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here 

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Some very grim looking charts taking us well into May - could be a very condensed Summer season this year.

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The Open-Meteo resource is amazing! I've done something similar for a point offshore Aberdeen at 57.0N 1.5W - winds over land here can be quite strongly influenced by topography so I wanted an open water location to try and sample the gradient rather than local flow.

I used hourly data from 1940 to 2023 and split winds into 8 bins each of 45 degrees, so SW ranges from 202 to 247 degrees. The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here 

Very interesting, thanks Keith!

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