Next week looking rubbish again. Big fat low wanting to make the UK it's home. Just a question of will it be warm rain or cool rain.
 

If this Low are short reset before returning to settled weather then that the best way to remove this current dirty mess haze/clouds HP out of the way.  Had much better warmer and sunnier with azure blue skies over the BH weekend under the LP.   This HP we having now is very dirty and not clean one as we should be expecting.

If this Low are short reset before returning to settled weather then that the best way to remove this current dirty mess haze/clouds HP out of the way.  Had much better warmer and sunnier with azure blue skies over the BH weekend under the LP.   This HP we having now is very dirty and not clean one as we should be expecting.

Nearly 10 hours sunshine for most of England, more in the far south, yesterday. That seems fair enough for a non-Mediterranean country.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

Sorry about the NE, Scotland and Wales though

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WX temps; forward and back. Yesterday's suggestions of warmer weather now only applying to France and Germany in week 1, though the rest of Europe incl Britain is fairly mild (as this is a weekly average, the warm weather forecast for Britain for the next few days is presumably offset by a cool down to follow). The cool influx from the north previously shown over the Urals has now transferred to the E Baltic for week 2, though not much change for Britain; any really warm weather stays along the Mediterranean fringes. Rain in week 1for France up to Norway, less heavy in Britain, very dry in Spain; in week 2 the heavier rain moves to C & E Europe with countries bordering the N Sea just a bit damp.

GFS Op - current HP moving off to Scandinavia by Mon 13th, replaced by LP from NW arriving W Ireland 990mb by that time. This moves to Scotland first deepening then filling to become a shallow trough lying N-S over Britain by Thu 16th between HPs Atlantic and Norway. The latter HP collapses and HP moves in to Britain from the SW 1020mb by Tue 21st intensifying and covering the whole country by the 23rd.

ECM - very much like GFS

GEFS - temps mild or warm to Mon 13th, then sharply dropping to norm, staying there with good ens agreement to Mon 20th, after which mean still near norm but little consensus. Dry to 13th, (11th in NW) then rain in small amounts on most days, tending to be more sporadic but occasionally heavier in NE.

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Nearly 10 hours sunshine for most of England, more in the far south, yesterday. That seems fair enough for a non-Mediterranean country.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

Sorry about the NE, Scotland and Wales though

We can see from those those figures why Edinburgh has now become a place where the Sun just refuses to shine these days with the sunniest place in the south of Scotland being Charterhall in the Scottish Borders with a total of just 3.7 hours of sunshine during yesterday.

Even with that though, Edinburgh came very close to getting its first 20+°C temperature of the year yesterday with a maximum temperature of 19.8°C being recorded at the botanic gardens, making that station the warmest location in the south of Scotland during yesterday (hence its presence on that list).

According to the Met Office, today's temperature is forecast to reach 19°C here in Edinburgh but we could sneak up to around 20°C or higher if it ends up being a bit warmer than expected, especially if we actually manage to get any sunshine (something which we hardly ever see these days).

Tomorrow's high is forecast to be around 21°C here in Edinburgh with Saturday's forecast maximum now been upgraded to around 23°C.

However, the BBC/Meteogroup don't have our temperatures getting as high as that. According to that forecast, the temperature on Friday and Saturday is not forecast to be any higher than around 20°C and if that is right, we might well have to wait a bit longer still for that elusive first 20+°C temperature of the year here in Edinburgh.

This shows that for here in Edinburgh at least, there is currently quite a bit of uncertainty amongst the various models, regarding just how warm the next few days are going to get in this part of the world.
 

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It still amazes me sometimes how easily it can get warm out the blue, 23c today and tomorrow then 24c Saturday & 26c Sunday, if only the reverse were ture. Seems nearly impossible to get a below average month now. Would take an impressive set up even to end up average 🤔 

It still amazes me sometimes how easily it can get warm out the blue, 23c today and tomorrow then 24c Saturday & 26c Sunday, if only the reverse were ture. Seems nearly impossible to get a below average month now. Would take an impressive set up even to end up average 🤔 

Met Office on X now saying 25c , 26c, 27c maxes next 3 days. 27c seems a bit of a push, would be notably warm for the first half of May.
 

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Met Office on X now saying 25c , 26c, 27c maxes next 3 days. 27c seems a bit of a push, would be notably warm for the first half of May.
 

UKV has shown 27C on several recent updates. I'm not saying it will happen but there must be a decent chance.

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Whereas up here, the forecast has changed over the past few days from glorious and sunny with temps up to 23c on a beautiful easterly flow from a big high centred over Norway, to positioning the high further SE to centre over Poland/southern Baltic, bringing a more southerly flow and allowing fronts to encroach from the west leading to showers here and temps maxing at 19c/20c.

🤮

I keep getting my hopes up for a high to establish itself over northern Scotland/Shetland/Faroe like in early summer 2018.

 

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UKV has shown 27C on several recent updates. I'm not saying it will happen but there must be a decent chance.

The longest record-breaking (or near record-breaking) spells of high temps in May have been
1st - 5th May 1990 when 27C was reached  every day somewhere in Britain (and all except May 1st >28C)
21st - 24th May 1922 when 30C was reached every day somewhere in Britain

A date record of 28C or fractionally under has been recorded for every day in May, but usually in bursts of only 2 or 3 days. Date records for Sat 11th and Sun 12th are 28.3 and 30.6C, both from 1945.

https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

Eileen:   Very, very warm for May.
Jack:      Eighty in the shade, they say.
Eileen;    Just fancy!
Jack;       It almost looks as though the sun had really come to stay!
Both;      Oh, what very charming weather.
The Arcadians, Act II [1909]

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3 fine days with temps topping 24 or 25c where the cloud breaks. Certainly nothing remarkable for May and the only remarkable point is just how wet and dull spring has been on the whole. Masked by a slightly warmer than average CET. 
Still waiting for 20 degrees on the south coast on the 9th May is quite a marked change from recent years. 
Thankfully after next weeks monsoon signs look promising for decent high pressure but of course this is a long way out and subject to change back to the Siberian spring with fingers lurking near the thermostat button once again. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

I think that should put paid to any talk about it having been a cold spring, or indeed a cold year. There have been only two short spells of cold weather in the 129 days we've had so far this year: around 12 days in January, and a week in April. The rest of the time has been generally above, if not well above average. And, of course, we're back in the 10% club - as in yesterday was one of the top 10% of CET maxima recorded.

May so far has been more like what you'd expect in early June.

3 more days of this to go, then it looks like getting back towards average. I still maintain that in the past 20 years a certain chunk of the population seems to have thought Britain is now a Med country!

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Next week does look poor though anything from 3 to 6 days of low pressure over the UK. 

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3 fine days with temps topping 24 or 25c where the cloud breaks. Certainly nothing remarkable for May and the only remarkable point is just how wet and dull spring has been on the whole. Masked by a slightly warmer than average CET. 
Still waiting for 20 degrees on the south coast on the 9th May is quite a marked change from recent years. 
Thankfully after next weeks monsoon signs look promising for decent high pressure but of course this is a long way out and subject to change back to the Siberian spring with fingers lurking near the thermostat button once again. 

We hit 22.5C on thr south coast on Tuesday. Widely into the low 20's across the southern coastal areas too! 

Today we've come close again at 19.5C here so i wouldn't be surprised if some south coast locations managed 20C. 
​​​​​
Back in April we also managed 20C on the south coast. 

 

A steady mean skewed by above average nights does not excuse the lack of decent daytime temperatures since the start of spring. It’s been excessively dull and dreary with gales often making it feel much cooler, particularly in the south. 
Hopefully June will herald some proper barbecue evenings but we really shouldn’t be waiting still and saying this in mid May. 

Further reading:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/05/01/a-wet-and-dull-april/ 


 

A steady mean skewed by above average nights does not excuse the lack of decent daytime temperatures since the start of spring. It’s been excessively dull and dreary with gales often making it feel much cooler, particularly in the south. 
Hopefully June will herald some proper barbecue evenings but we really shouldn’t be waiting still and saying this in mid May. 

Further reading:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/05/01/a-wet-and-dull-april/ 


 

That analysis says the month was 0.4c above average , with minima 0.8 above, meaning maxima averaged 0.4c below.  In other words, only very marginally cooler by day; hardly noticeable surely?

 

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That analysis says the month was 0.4c above average , with minima 0.8 above, meaning maxima averaged 0.4c below.  In other words, only very marginally cooler by day; hardly noticeable surely?

 

add in the other aforementioned factors; lack of sun, strong winds particularly along the coast, sixth wettest April in nearly 200 years.. and yes, very noticeable indeed. 
 

WX temps with a more optimistic display this morning. Week 1, 'springlike' over continental W Europe, fringing into S Britain, cool weather spreading S-wards only as near as W Russia. In week 2, much warmer weather spreading in from the SE as far as Germany though not by then near enough to raise temps in Britain. Rain in week 1 for W Britain and France, very dry for Scandinavia and S Spain. In week 2, rain widespread over continental W Europe, becoming less noticeable towards N Scotland.

GFS Op - current HP off to the Baltic by Sun 12th; at first pressure drops slowly and generally over Britain but by Tue 14th a definite depression develops 990mb Cornwall. This circulates around (mostly western) Britain, progressively filling but still identifiable until Tue 21st when it gets sucked into an LP which has suddenly developed over Norway. After some days with an indeterminate pressure pattern, HP appears as a ridge from the SW Fri 24th, steadily extending NE-wards but with lower pressure over the continent bringing E-lies to S Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS as far as it has downloaded ATM (to Fri 17th); yesterday's 12z differs after that as HP continues to dominate Scandinavia and links to HP from the SW, while the LP which has been cruising around Britain just drifts S-wards into the continent.

GEFS - Rain and a drop in temp 12th/13th Sun/Mon arriving first in the west and spreading everywhere. Temps continue near norm with only a gradual spread in ens members, rain in most places at many times, heaviest and most persistent in SW, light and patchy in far NE.

Weekend reviews may be either brief or absent as I'm involved in organising a major orienteering event.

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Unbelievably on BBC south today, a grass fire warning  in some areas. How?? 2 days of sun?

To the models, a the sh*t fest weather comes back Monday....
 

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Whereas up here, the forecast has changed over the past few days from glorious and sunny with temps up to 23c on a beautiful easterly flow from a big high centred over Norway, to positioning the high further SE to centre over Poland/southern Baltic, bringing a more southerly flow and allowing fronts to encroach from the west leading to showers here and temps maxing at 19c/20c.

🤮

I keep getting my hopes up for a high to establish itself over northern Scotland/Shetland/Faroe like in early summer 2018.

 

Next run after posting that, things flipped back somewhat.

Saturday lovely, Sunday thundery showers pm.

 

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Unbelievably on BBC south today, a grass fire warning  in some areas. How?? 2 days of sun?

To the models, a the sh*t fest weather comes back Monday....
 

Daft isn’t it? Any excuse to bang the ‘we’re all burning up’ drum.