Hadley

13.7 to the 11th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Three days in a row now that have been in the top 5% warmest days... I suspect today will be the fourth, then we should get back closer to normal.

The HadCET annual tracker says we only need an anomaly of 1.34 for the rest of the year to get the wamest year since 1659...

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 1.34 for the remainder of this year
 

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To 11 May the TWO tracker is:

13.8°C

1961-1990 2.7°C
1971-2000 2.8°C
1981-2010 2.4°C
1991-2020 1.9°C
1659-2020 2.6°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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Three days in a row now that have been in the top 5% warmest days... I suspect today will be the fourth, then we should get back closer to normal.

The HadCET annual tracker says we only need an anomaly of 1.34 for the rest of the year to get the wamest year since 1659...

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 1.34 for the remainder of this year
 

I,m waiting to see whether the annualised CET can beat the record this year for  ANY 12 month period

That one still has a way to go being currently held by May 2006 - Apr 2007 at 11.66C

The current 12month period of May 2023 - Apr 2024 is 11.31C but June 2023 was very warm at 17,0C so it may face a setback after the end of this month when Jun 2024 replaces 2023

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A very warm GFS this evening, with warm continental air pretty much always on top of the UK. If it keeps showing this, then there's surely the chance of a very significantly warm May. Perhaps the first 14°C May?

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IMANSF22            14.8c            Nicks'1BATH75        13.4c
Metcheck              13.78c              Anomaly              2.38c
Netweather           14.04c              Anomaly              2.75c
Peasedown St John  13.12c           Anomaly              2.32c.     

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A very warm GFS this evening, with warm continental air pretty much always on top of the UK. If it keeps showing this, then there's surely the chance of a very significantly warm May. Perhaps the first 14°C May?

Certainly a chance I'd say. Justin mentioned that May 1833 had a CET of 15.1C but you correctly imply that we've not recorded a May CET in the 14s because the next warmest was 13.9C

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HadCET 14.0°C to 12th.

I see the same period in 2008 notched up a CET average of 15.2°C but ended up on just 13.4. 

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IMANS22            13.0c        Nicks'-1BATH75    13.4c
Metcheck            13.89c             Anomaly        2.99c
Netweather         14.13c             Anomaly        2.84c
Peasedown St John  12.2            Anomaly       1.3c. 

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May

To 13 May the TWO tracker is:

14.2°C

1961-1990 3.1°C
1971-2000 3.2°C
1981-2010 2.8°C
1991-2020 2.3°C
1659-2020 3°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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Hadley

14.1 to the 13th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22          14.8c          Nicks'1BATH75     13.4c
Metcheck           13.92                Anomaly         2.52c
Netweather        14.18c              Anomaly         2.88c
Peasedown St John  13.1c          Anomaly         2.23c. 

 

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Hadley

14.1 to the 14th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Hadley

14.1 to the 14th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Where are you getting the 81 - 10 averages from? (Not saying they're wrong but they seem a bit different to what I've got recorded)

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Where are you getting the 81 - 10 averages from? (Not saying they're wrong but they seem a bit different to what I've got recorded)

This often gets queried as it’s very misleading.  Apparently one of the figures is for the month to date and the other is for the whole month. Only Gavin knows why. 🧐

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This often gets queried as it’s very misleading.  Apparently one of the figures is for the month to date and the other is for the whole month. Only Gavin knows why. 🧐

I think the sensible figure is the month to date one. In the first half of the year the temperatures are likely (caveat: some recent months swim upstream on this) to be lower than later. Therefore it's really useful to know how we compare to the same time in other years. So thanks to Gavin  for this. 
But agree it's not easy to compare when one 3 decade period is used in a different way to another. 

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This often gets queried as it’s very misleading.  Apparently one of the figures is for the month to date and the other is for the whole month. Only Gavin knows why. 🧐

Thanks. 👍

The ones I used above are for the month as a whole.

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Hadley

14.1 to the 15th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Where are you getting the 81 - 10 averages from? (Not saying they're wrong but they seem a bit different to what I've got recorded)

They are on Netweather - https://community.netweather.tv/topic/100101-may-2024-cet-and-ewp-forecast-contests/page/3/#comment-5064578