We're currently in a pattern that would have many of us banging our heads in the depth of winter.

It feels like its a good thing to be having this now and into November, just like during the past couple of years. I can't help to feel more optimistic about getting some decent cold spells this winter. Not yet ready to believe that the winter as a whole will be especially cold; its going to be quite amazing if it is, given that it would mean 4 cold winters on the trot.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=topics&f=5 I find a particularly useful tool for learning although i think it would take a lot of time to bring knowledge levels up to some of these guys. To be fair berries on the bush would not be any worse tool for creating a long range forecast than many of the others you will read on here  and much as I love the science I agree mother nature is often a great pointer. What I particularly like is some of the information you will find on the model output thread where regularly guys will be able to poin towards the weather in 7 days time and impending big events like the heatwave at the end of October. Last year whilst there was no weather warnings in place I was pointed towards a system in the North Sea which I was pointed towards and I watched it on and off for 15 hrs and it subsequently produced snow for 30 hours non stop including thundersnow 🙂 plenty videos of it if you type in thundersnow dundee to youtube. Enjoy the forum and the bitching between fans of cold and mild winters!!.... Im like you hot summers and cold winters for me

    I'm pleased to see evidence again that interest in weather isn't exclusive to the male sex.  (I get teasing, good natured i like to believe, from my wife that my interest is a typically male thing).  This forum mainly, but also one or two others, has given me a much better insight into such matters as how systems like La Nina, sea surface temperatures, and the jet stream can have powerful influences on our weather.  Like most readers on this thread I have a love of cold snowy winters and make no excuses for that.

Like many people, i also try pattern matching though it has its well discussed limitations, not least the need for many hundreds of years worth of data - which we simply haven't got - for it to be a realistic means of predicting longterm trends.  Nonetheless, the recently extended archive maps on Wetterzentrale have enabled me to note that a chilly November (eg, 1962) and a warm November (1946) can both be followed by extremely cold winters.

    Therefore, i look at the present maps and forecasts on GFS etc with equanimity.  We're still in October.  Only if we have had nothing worthwhile by late January (and with nothing good on the horizon) do I start to feel dejected.

    I would recommend three books to our new member.  'Frozen in Time' by Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson (Hudson is my local TV weather forecaster and he knows his stuff);  'Frost, Freezes and Fairs' by Ian Currie;  and, now sadly out of print - but you might get a copy in a second-hand shop  - Gordon Manley's 'Climate and the British Scene'.

    I like the set-up on TWO.  While bickering and sniping can occur, generally the contributions are terrific, the writers showing knowledge and wisdom.  I particularly value those who stick their heads above the parapet and outline - with careful reasoning - their winter forecasts.  More power to their elbow.

    Here's to an interesting winter.

Was it 2000 or 2001 that had a really dry & mild start to December?

The first half of December 2000 was exceptionally mild, second half colder especially between Christmas and New Year, with some heavy snowfalls on the 28th, and a minimum of -13 c in Birmingham. What is starting to irritate me a bit is that most people no longer consider February a Winter month. Is it because of the increasing height of the Sun throughout the month, or just because this Feb was very mild?

I don't think people are stopping considering Feb to be a winter month, rather that recent Februarys haven't been particularly wintry and La Nina winters have a tendency to front-load the cold, with conditions becoming milder the further we go into winter.

But we havent had 3 cold winters on the trot!!

The last 2 winters where by and lartge a scotland & northern england event.

For the south last winter had only one notable cold spell - most of which happened in the autumn.

I'm not too sure about that, yes November was cold, but it was December which was the stand out cold month, January, was average for much of the country, colder in the west, and February was warm for most of the country. Overall though taken as a whole and averaged out winter was colder than average for most of the country:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/11/2010_11_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/12/2010_12_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/1/2011_1_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/2/2011_2_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/16/2011_16_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 

Freezing in Bristol from last week of November 10 right through til just after xmas.

Have to say, the weather has been so boring in this neck of the woods for such a long time, bar the last few Winters, I hope this Winter is worse than last years! I want blizzards and 6ft snow drifts. After that, it can rain rain rain. I just love extremes. In the wrong country for extremes though eh.

First sign of nerves from me that we may not be in for our third succesive cold December. Yes things can change at short notice and may well do so but the lack of high rises to the North and the flat zonal pattern that seems to be developing can (as we have experienced so often in the past) be difficult to shift once it is established.  Pre 09, weeks could pass where the decent (for cold weather) charts would linger in FI and be continually pushed back to the point where they never actually materialised. Over the last few winters for a time the reverse was true when the Atlantic dominated weather was pushed back once the blocked pattern was established.  

Given that we have had a gradual switch over the last 12 months back to this mobile pattern (if we consider the general patterns of the year) , I would be surprised if things were to suddenly change back again suddenly.

The straw to cluth to is that early Nov 10 was mild and the cold did not arrive in these parts untill Nov 23rd but the signs for high rises to the North were there for some time before in the model output. At this moment there is no indication of a change.

The good news is that even 5/6 weeks of this zonal pattern would only take us to the beginning of December (and winter)so much can change but I do worry about the stubborn nature of the current set up. Let's hope as others have said we are getting this out of the way at the right time but I have never been a believer in karma /ying and yang when it comes to the weather.

There does appear to be a gradual switch to something more resembling zonal westerly-dominated conditions for the first time in what seems like years....

Whether this continues, or is just temporary is another question, but support for the influence of the high to the northeast appears to be waning quite considerably recently.

I will be factoring the latest developments into my winter LRF, which I hope to release around mid-November (and will doubtless prepare myself for the usual bout of abuse)!...

Still no real signs from me as to what to expect, but rest assured, all the factors that I USE to produce a winter LRF are falling into place, and I will produce what I hope will be a well-constructed, and more importantly, easy to understand, winter LRF in the next few weeks.

Pheww, I'll sleep easy tonight.

Sorry couldn't resist ...

It will be interesting to see what happens this winter. I sense it'll be a mild one, albeit through no scientific explanation, just gut feeling.

Look forward to reading it. As for abuse, well, maybe forgoing the fanfare from your own trumpet will help to diminish that reaction. 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif 

The fact is we have had 3 colder than average winters in succession. Winter 09/10 was colder than all of the 80s winter, Dec 2010 was one of the coldest months on record, and 08/09 brought several good cold spells even to the south. I'm old enough to remember the 80s well, and what we've had in recent years has been at least comparable, and at times more severe than those winters. People who don't accept or like this fact would be better advised to spend their time looking for cheap flight tickets to the arctic than reading this forum.

A point to consider; when we talk of a run of cold winters, are we talking as little as 0.1C colder than average or are we talking properly cold - more than 1C below average?

I think it's worth mentioning as well that, as far as I recall, the signs for cold at this time in 2009 weren't much if any better than they are presently, and indeed that November was mild and zonal throughout., and the first week of that December continued in similar vein.The first indications in the model output of a change in the pattern IIRC didn't start to appear until the last few days of November, around the time that Brian released his winter forecast. After Brian released his forecast, the signal for a change to cold in the models continued to gatehr momentum and by the end of the first week of December, it was clear that a major change was on the way. Had someone asked me in mid-November 2009 of I thought the coming winter was going to be a cold one, my response would probablt been along the lines of "No chance". Even early last November, I can recall some on here commenting that it their view, the prospects didn't look as good as the year before, and we all know what happened a few weeks later.

There does appear to be a gradual switch to something more resembling zonal westerly-dominated conditions for the first time in what seems like years....

Whether this continues, or is just temporary is another question, but support for the influence of the high to the northeast appears to be waning quite considerably recently.

I will be factoring the latest developments into my winter LRF, which I hope to release around mid-November (and will doubtless prepare myself for the usual bout of abuse)!...

Still no real signs from me as to what to expect, but rest assured, all the factors that I USE to produce a winter LRF are falling into place, and I will produce what I hope will be a well-constructed, and more importantly, easy to understand, winter LRF in the next few weeks.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Look forward to reading it. As for abuse, well, maybe forgoing the fanfare from your own trumpet will help to diminish that reaction. 

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Fair comment - I'm a changed man....There won't be any of that this winter....whether I'm right or wrong!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well I enjoy reading your thoughts on winter (and last summer come to that!). Nothing like sticking your neck out .... it should be taken in the spirit it is no doubt given in

sort of agree - half and half - yes the last few winters have been much better than the dross of the mid to late 1990's and 2000's - absolutely correct -  max and min temp wise the last few winters have been pretty good - but snow has been at a premium - certainly in my area - as i have said before - its usually come down that easterly or north-easterly wind to drive the showers inland - usually with not much success - and the Atlantic frontal battleground scenario situation - which is my best hope inland - has hardly happened at all - i think I have to go back to Feb 1996 for the last time to deliver. As far as I am concerned the classic winters of the 1980's still hold the gold medal and the recent winters the silver medal - simply because the 1980's delivered snow big time with cumulative accumulations with repeated snowy spells - and this is certainly not the case with winter 2008-9, 2009-10 and 2010-11

09/08 was largely a south-eastern event, all three winter months, here at least, were fairly average, with February being a bit above average due to the very mild end to the month. 

Tsk, there's just no pleasing some people

I too get the 'feeling' that we may not see conditions as severe as last December but, fearing I'm labouring the point a bit, it's still too early to tell.

GP from Netweather has issued his preliminary Winter 2011/12 forecast,

Early signs of blocked pattern prevailing through December and January but then turning more unsettled in Febuary and also mentioned a possibly average start to the winter but becoming pregressively colder. So maybe the worst of the snow could fall in February.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=