Model Output Discussion 08/05/18 10:06 >>>>· Page 24

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 13:55:22

Phew

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Caz
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 14:20:11

#577

That is important because although I am very interested in weather and extremes, I don't have a clue how to read the models so I admit to being a lurker! I come on here because I get a better idea than I do from places like BBC Weather. There's a lot of pessimism at times like this and so much so that you'd think it was going to be terrible by next weekend which might not be the case but I've no idea!

Originally Posted by: andy-manc

I too am a lurker on this thread for the same reasons and I agree, although I have learned which posters to take seriously.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 14:45:44

#578

Liking the talk of downgrades as I am not a fan of raw, still heat. ECM still going for maxes of 25-28c for most of next week for me, but hopes of something just a little cooler towards the weekend.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

TimS
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 16:44:33

#579

12z is a marginal upgrade on 06z up to 240hrs, but broadly the same pattern with low pressure pushing up through France (soaking most of it on the sway) on Saturday and Sunday.

Better reload potential on this one, and the rain stays mainly across the channel.

Edited by user 23 June 2018 16:46:28 | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Arcus
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 17:00:05

#580

I see no value in looking beyond t+144, and at that point UKMO looks solid (if it's settled, warm and sunny you want), as does GEM and GFS. To me the general pattern would support a reload of the High even if there's a slight Atlantic incursion next weekend anyway.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

Retron
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 17:46:33

#581

The 12z GEFS is interesting from my point of view - the relatively cooler Saturday the 12z op threw up has good support, with the entire suite shifting a couple of degrees colder. The >20C minimas for London have vanished too, unsurprisingly (I did mention earlier how rare they are, so I'm not surprised to see them go).

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Still plenty of time for change, of course.

Leysdown, north Kent

TimS
Advanced Member

23 June 2018 22:07:37

#582

Up for the 18z, as usual, and it’s more of the same but marginally cooler max temps again. The Biscay trough is looking roughly similar to the 12z as at Thursday pm.

EDIT: a teeny bit better going into the weekend (cooler than 12z but low pressure further away) but still very similar.

EDIT 2: by Sunday a lot better: cooler uppers, but much more settled. Going to sleep now.

Edited by user 23 June 2018 22:30:50 | Reason: Not specified

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 07:23:00

#583

Correct thread this time , hope you're right Moomin

Warm to hot ECM 850s 10c - 16c for the next 10 days. 30c should happen somewhere at some point. Cloud could be an issue though as high isn't in perfect position .

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

TimS
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 07:56:03

#584

We seem to be arriving at some kind of model consensus for next week, across all 4 and most ensembles, with high pressure in charge until Thursday, uppers starting to cool from midweek and a squeeze from North and South by the weekend. Bit of rain pushing up from South but mainly staying in France, then high pressure trying to edge in from the west and a battle until the end between ridging and Atlantic depressions.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 08:29:57

#585

We seem to be arriving at some kind of model consensus for next week, across all 4 and most ensembles, with high pressure in charge until Thursday, uppers starting to cool from midweek and a squeeze from North and South by the weekend. Bit of rain pushing up from South but mainly staying in France, then high pressure trying to edge in from the west and a battle until the end between ridging and Atlantic depressions.

Originally Posted by: TimS

Good summary Tim, all in all its a cracking summery output.

TimS
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 17:48:40

#586

Taking a look through the GFS, UKMO and GEM 12zs. While GFS has been pretty consistent in moving towards the cool down from Thursday onwards, and UKMO / ECM both also seem to have moved that way, there is still an unusually big spread in the ENS from that date. Only 4 days out you’d usually expect much more clustering than this. GEM continues to go hot unlike the others, too.

The inflection seems to be about how much pressure rebuilds over and to the West of the U.K. on Friday after getting squeezed midweek.

Next weekend remains in the balance.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 17:49:30

#587

12z GEFS mean at t+192

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

As it stands this evening, we are staring at warm, dry and settled weather, as far as the eye can see.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

David M Porter
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 18:00:55

#588

12z GEFS mean at t+192

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

As it stands this evening, we are staring at warm, dry and settled weather, as far as the eye can see.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Caz
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 18:35:01

#589

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend. My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 18:43:13

#590

GFS and GEM are looking horrible on Friday with extensive low cloud for much of England. Hopefully they are overestimating the NE wind.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 19:09:10

#591

No complaints.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

eddied
Advanced Member

24 June 2018 21:56:02

#592

I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend. My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!

Originally Posted by: Caz

A tents situation. We should canvas opinion on here but hopefully the models will get it pegged by then.

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 07:13:34

#593

More of the same this morning - although ECM is a storm lover’s dream!

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

bledur
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 07:39:46

#594

I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend. My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!

Originally Posted by: Caz

Maybe should have proof read that..

TimS
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 07:40:17

#595

More of the same this morning - although ECM is a storm lover’s dream!

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

ECM is vile. Just hope it doesn’t transpire like that.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 08:09:56

#596

Maybe should have proof read that..

Originally Posted by: bledur

LOL!

PS - huddled in a tent whilst rain patters on it is part of the charm of camping, is it not? As long as your tent's waterproof, that is.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

bledur
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 08:15:43

#597

ECMWF going for more unsettled in a week or so.

David M Porter
Advanced Member

25 June 2018 08:22:20

#598

ECMWF going for more unsettled in a week or so.

Originally Posted by: bledur

ECM seems to have flipped quite dramatically from what it showed yesterday, altough it doesn't have much support from GFS this morning.

Edited by user 25 June 2018 08:24:18 | Reason: Not specified

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022