theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
25 June 2018 20:56:23

Navgem seems to have a particular fondness for Benelux and Northern France. Looks like Lichfield will get the all time UK record on Sunday.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I'm pretty sure I've seen 50C in N france before on the NAVGEM


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jiries
25 June 2018 21:02:37


NAVGEM entertaining as always during hot spells.



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


One day it will happen. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
25 June 2018 21:42:50
Ive just spent 10 minutes pouring through the 12z wondering why it’s out so early and why it looks so familiar, before remembering it’s the 18z I should be looking at! Oh dear.

Anyway by 21hrs the 18z looks the same.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
CreweCold
25 June 2018 22:55:51

Welcome relief as we enter July on the 18z GFS with troughing being able to become well established as the run goes on. That would be some much welcome rainfall.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2018 05:12:54

A hot and sunny week with various proposals for a breakdown around next Monday or Tuesday - GFS with a well-developed depression, ECM more of a LP col

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2018 05:12:59
The trend continues with GFS 06z. Looks like the back end of our weekend away will be a wash out.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
26 June 2018 05:21:50

The trend continues with GFS 06z. Looks like the back end of our weekend away will be a wash out.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes the end is nigh on the 0z GFS and once it breaks it is seemingly a long way back to settled. 


ECM delays the breakdown by a day or two but also looks very unstable next week.


C'est La Vie.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2018 07:00:17
It's all about the breakdown and how quickly things can settle back down now. Critical time in the summer, it could go either way. If we're back in high pressure dominance by second week of July then we're still well positioned. This breakdown is like the first pit stop of the grand prix. Need to get those new tyres on quickly.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2018 07:17:34

Yes definite breakdown in the  weather starting about the 3rd July, But how long will it last the Azores looks primed to come in on the ECM as soon as 6th/7th . So hopefully only a brief cooler unsettled spell but to early to tell at the moment. My guess is it will be cooler and unsettled for about 5 to 7 days then Azores builds in strongly again.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 June 2018 07:19:19

It's all about the breakdown and how quickly things can settle back down now. Critical time in the summer, it could go either way. If we're back in high pressure dominance by second week of July then we're still well positioned. This breakdown is like the first pit stop of the grand prix. Need to get those new tyres on quickly.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


To keep the Grand Prix analogy going the weather has been going round in circles for the last few months. A shock event is always a possibility but you'd have to put money on things continuing as they have been.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2018 07:36:01

Why is everyone writing off Summer on one set of runs this morning? Doom and gloom!

Winter 23/24 in Nantwich
Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)



Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21
Days Snow Lying: 8
Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)
Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6
Days Snow Lying: 6
Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27
Days Snow Lying: 24
Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)
Weathermac
26 June 2018 07:42:57
I think the Met office monthly forecast sums it up perfectly really mostly settled over the next month with just brief unsettled spells.

Even the great summer of 1976 had a few cooler unsettled spells .
Solar Cycles
26 June 2018 08:06:47


 


To keep the Grand Prix analogy going the weather has been going round in circles for the last few months. A shock event is always a possibility but you'd have to put money on things continuing as they have been.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

This has been a theme for some considerably time ( not warm sunny weather ) weather patterns once  becoming established persisting for some considerable time. Of course it will break at some point but it’s looking like July at least will continue the present theme.

Hungry Tiger
26 June 2018 08:29:59

I'll settle for this.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


David M Porter
26 June 2018 08:36:59

I think the Met office monthly forecast sums it up perfectly really mostly settled over the next month with just brief unsettled spells.

Even the great summer of 1976 had a few cooler unsettled spells .


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


Indeed, and summer 1995 was the same.


In the UK, it isn't realistic to expect all 92 days of the meteorogical summer to be completely settled everywhere all of the time, even during good summers.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
26 June 2018 08:40:37


 


Yes the end is nigh on the 0z GFS and once it breaks it is seemingly a long way back to settled. 


ECM delays the breakdown by a day or two but also looks very unstable next week.


C'est La Vie.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


While I agree that a breakdown of sorts looks likely next week, I can't agree about it looking like a long way back to another settled spell. There have been more than enough indications from GFS FI in recent days to suggest another settled spell a la this one setting up again, possibly sometime aroung the second week of July. The 240hr chart on the ECM 00z op run also shows the Azores High well positioned to move back in around that time.


All is not lost by any means.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
26 June 2018 09:17:26


 


While I agree that a breakdown of sorts looks likely next week, I can't agree about it looking like a long way back to another settled spell. There have been more than enough indications from GFS FI in recent days to suggest another settled spell a la this one setting up again, possibly sometime aroung the second week of July. The 240hr chart on the ECM 00z op run also shows the Azores High well positioned to move back in around that time.


All is not lost by any means.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Yes I should have said "could" be a long way back


However, the greater propensity for ridging this summer suggests that we may be on the cusp of a classic summer with just brief breakdowns.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
26 June 2018 10:53:03
Don't want to believe it, and thankfully it's in FI, but the 6z turns things very cool and unsettled into July....After the breakdown starts around Sunday, the 6z really is pants.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
26 June 2018 16:35:32

12z MetO is an absolute belter of a run.


Hot, hot, hot with little sign of a break. 


Getting hotter by Monday next week :O


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
moomin75
26 June 2018 16:42:54


12z MetO is an absolute belter of a run.


Hot, hot, hot with little sign of a break. 


Getting hotter by Monday next week :O


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Hmmmmm....totally at odds with GFS at the same stage. All to play for then. All eyes on the ECM.


 


Edit. GEM is much more like the GFS than UKMO.


 


UKMO probably an outlier. Let's wait for the ECM but I feel the trend towards a wet spell is pretty clear.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
LeedsLad123
26 June 2018 16:50:03


Hmmmmm....totally at odds with GFS at the same stage. All to play for then. All eyes on the ECM.


 


Edit. GEM is much more like the GFS than UKMO.


 


UKMO probably an outlier. Let's wait for the ECM but I feel the trend towards a wet spell is pretty clear.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2018 16:51:30


Hmmmmm....totally at odds with GFS at the same stage. All to play for then. All eyes on the ECM.


 


Edit. GEM is much more like the GFS than UKMO.


 


UKMO probably an outlier. Let's wait for the ECM but I feel the trend towards a wet spell is pretty clear.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


GEM is a half way house and gets very hot by day 9. 18c 850s


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
26 June 2018 16:58:13


Hmmmmm....totally at odds with GFS at the same stage. All to play for then. All eyes on the ECM.


 


Edit. GEM is much more like the GFS than UKMO.


 


UKMO probably an outlier. Let's wait for the ECM but I feel the trend towards a wet spell is pretty clear.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think that the development of any one particular solution won't be clear until such times as the big three models are all singing from the same hymn sheet at T144. At the moment that isn't the case, so it's still up in the air somewhat as far as I'm concerned.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
26 June 2018 18:22:25


 


I think that the development of any one particular solution won't be clear until such times as the big three models are all singing from the same hymn sheet at T144. At the moment that isn't the case, so it's still up in the air somewhat as far as I'm concerned.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I think you may be right David. As early as 96hrs there are big differences between GFS and ECM. Whereas GFS has that thundery low approaching quickly from the south, ECM has high pressure still in control.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
26 June 2018 18:29:38
And by 144 on ECM it's looking ace again
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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