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haghir22
27 June 2018 19:44:09
Thanks to TimS and SC for two very informative posts. Great reading.
YNWA
Brian Gaze
27 June 2018 19:50:30

I've been in my car most of the day so not really had that much time to look at the output. However it looks like there has been a flip to warmer / hotter and drier conditions next week. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Arcus
27 June 2018 20:04:43
As I remember commenting 3 days ago, it's a mug's game preempting the models in the 5 day+ range when the short term output is relatively stable, because the models in the longer range default to the influence of their coarse definitions. To use a winter analogy, the breakdown keeps being pushed back.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Brian Gaze
28 June 2018 05:47:17

Op and control dip but suggestions that the warmth could last into the middle of July.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
28 June 2018 08:04:51
In the winter, we urge FI charts to be maintained as they approach the reliable, whereas in a decent summer spell, we want FI breakdown charts kept at bay - such is the fickleness of human nature and the weather.
Naturally, I am hoping for a long hot summer, with any breakdown delayed until September.
New world order coming.
johncs2016
28 June 2018 11:25:17
Of course, many of us will already know that next week marks the start of Wimbledon but if the latest model output is correct, this spell of dry and hot weather could well still be around for the first week of that at least.

That in turn reminds me of something which in a way, I will miss about Wimbledon if that indeed, is how it ends up because to me, Wimbledon isn't quite the same without the rain (which in the past, has led to scenes of Sir Cliff Richard entertaining everyone on the Centre Court during a massive rain storm).

Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that I would want to be experiencing that sort of weather if I was actually there, but it is great fun and entertainment for those of us who are watching on T.V. With the way that it is looking though, it is not so much the effect of any rain interruptions which the players will be concerned about there, as it will be about the heat.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DavidK
28 June 2018 11:38:00

 


The roof on centre court and soon to be court 1 means entertainment during rain breaks are a thing of the past anyway. Hopefully it will stay dry during the two weeks regardless. Enjoying the summer heat  


Of course, many of us will already know that next week marks the start of Wimbledon but if the latest model output is correct, this spell of dry and hot weather could well still be around for the first week of that at least.

That in turn reminds me of something which in a way, I will miss about Wimbledon if that indeed, is how it ends up because to me, Wimbledon isn't quite the same without the rain (which in the past, has led to scenes of Sir Cliff Richard entertaining everyone on the Centre Court during a massive rain storm).

Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that I would want to be experiencing that sort of weather if I was actually there, but it is great fun and entertainment for those of us who are watching on T.V. With the way that it is looking though, it is not so much the effect of any rain interruptions which the players will be concerned about there, as it will be about the heat.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Crookes, Sheffield, 226 metres asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2018 11:45:45


 


The roof on centre court and soon to be court 1 means entertainment during rain breaks are a thing of the past anyway. Hopefully it will stay dry during the two weeks regardless. Enjoying the summer heat  


 


Originally Posted by: DavidK 


 


Give me tennis over Cliff Richard any day 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
28 June 2018 13:10:49


Give me tennis over Cliff Richard any day 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


Give me slow and painful death over Cliff Richard any day


 


(actually, give Richard the slow and painful death)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Joe Bloggs
28 June 2018 16:33:20

Absolutely incredible output tonight.


It just goes on, and on, and on.


I’m starting to struggle to remember when we last saw a cloud, never mind rain. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Hints now of SE UK importing some hotter air from the continent as we head towards the middle of next week. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2018 16:36:56
I just logged into the GFS 12z wondering if it would be an upgrade or downgrade (upgrade seemed likely given 06z was a ridiculous cool outlier from early on).

Up to 213 hours it's both: better than the 06z op, but worse than most of the 06z ENS members. That's fairly typical - take the op and main ENS cluster from one run and expect to split the difference in the next. Quite wet midweek
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
28 June 2018 16:45:10

I just logged into the GFS 12z wondering if it would be an upgrade or downgrade (upgrade seemed likely given 06z was a ridiculous cool outlier from early on).

Up to 213 hours it's both: better than the 06z op, but worse than most of the 06z ENS members. That's fairly typical - take the op and main ENS cluster from one run and expect to split the difference in the next. Quite wet midweek

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I just see the signal for some showers in the south - probably very hit and miss. Pressure remains generally quite high, albeit looks a tad unstable on Thursday afternoon - maybe some evening thunderstorms? 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_168_1.png


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Jiries
28 June 2018 17:14:25

  if wasn#t theeeee


Absolutely incredible output tonight.


It just goes on, and on, and on.


I’m starting to struggle to remember when we last saw a cloud, never mind rain. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Hints now of SE UK importing some hotter air from the continent as we head towards the middle of next week. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


With welcome flow of SE would good for us and including the north still can get hot in the 30's and here probably low to mid 30's as the ground are so dry now and all in right ingredients. If wasn't for the pesky NE winds here today I think it would had been high 30's with record broken same time like the NW getting now.

briggsy6
28 June 2018 17:52:47

it seems a long time since we had appreciable rain down here.


Location: Uxbridge
moomin75
28 June 2018 17:55:12


it seems a long time since we had appreciable rain down here.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

Still nothing appreciably unsettled in the foreseeable future. Maybe some showers but that's about it.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2018 18:42:52


 


I just see the signal for some showers in the south - probably very hit and miss. Pressure remains generally quite high, albeit looks a tad unstable on Thursday afternoon - maybe some evening thunderstorms? 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_168_1.png


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I don’t know why, but I’ve been feeling quite eeyoreish about this summer so far, always looking for the downside. Maybe it’s because London hasn’t been that hot yet and most mornings have been cloudy (but it’s certainly been dry this month), maybe it’s the fact my eye focuses further south on the charts including central France, where it’s been dreadful this year.


Probably though it’s just the accumulated frustrations and fear that come from such a long wait for a truly good summer. We’ve had plenty of very hot mini heatwaves in the last decade (including 35C last summer) but I long for a proper summer drought.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
28 June 2018 18:52:15


 


I don’t know why, but I’ve been feeling quite eeyoreish about this summer so far, always looking for the downside. Maybe it’s because London hasn’t been that hot yet and most mornings have been cloudy (but it’s certainly been dry this month), maybe it’s the fact my eye focuses further south on the charts including central France, where it’s been dreadful this year.


Probably though it’s just the accumulated frustrations and fear that come from such a long wait for a truly good summer. We’ve had plenty of very hot mini heatwaves in the last decade (including 35C last summer) but I long for a proper summer drought.


Originally Posted by: TimS 

....


Whereas up here, I’ve looked towards SE England in envy over the past few summers when we have faced atrocious conditions whereas the London area has had some really decent hot spells. 


This year however all my Christmasses have come at once. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

xioni2
28 June 2018 18:53:11


I don’t know why, but I’ve been feeling quite eeyoreish about this summer so far, always looking for the downside. Maybe it’s because London hasn’t been that hot yet and most mornings have been cloudy (but it’s certainly been dry this month), maybe it’s the fact my eye focuses further south on the charts including central France, where it’s been dreadful this year.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


You might be falling victim to the models' inability to handle blocks and their mean reverting bias plus your psychology of course.  Remember the breakdown this weekend? 


I think it's the best start to the summer possible and models are more likely to keep underestimating the longevity of high pressure. 

LeedsLad123
28 June 2018 18:55:05


....


Whereas up here, I’ve looked towards SE England in envy over the past few summers when we have faced atrocious conditions whereas the London area has had some really decent hot spells. 


This year however all my Christmasses have come at once. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


To be fair, that's a lot more normal than the reverse. And then there are those of us in northeastern parts who have also missed out on some SE-only hot spells while also doing worse this year due to the perpetual easterly winds. And you have to feel doubly sorry for people on the east coast who probably haven't had any genuine warm weather at all this year.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2018 18:56:11
Indeed, nature redressing the balance. The Northern and Western sides of the U.K. have had a truly appalling series of summers. Often I would get on a train at Euston and just north of Watford junction the fields would turn an emerald green that continued all the way. This week I did the same and the fields just kept getting browner. Macclesfield looked like Silicon Valley.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Solar Cycles
28 June 2018 18:57:58


 


I don’t know why, but I’ve been feeling quite eeyoreish about this summer so far, always looking for the downside. Maybe it’s because London hasn’t been that hot yet and most mornings have been cloudy (but it’s certainly been dry this month), maybe it’s the fact my eye focuses further south on the charts including central France, where it’s been dreadful this year.


Probably though it’s just the accumulated frustrations and fear that come from such a long wait for a truly good summer. We’ve had plenty of very hot mini heatwaves in the last decade (including 35C last summer) but I long for a proper summer drought.


Originally Posted by: TimS 

Yes, a 76 or even a 95 is the holy grail for me. We’re long overdue one.

LeedsLad123
28 June 2018 18:58:46

Indeed, nature redressing the balance. The Northern and Western sides of the U.K. have had a truly appalling series of summers. Often I would get on a train at Euston and just north of Watford junction the fields would turn an emerald green that continued all the way. This week I did the same and the fields just kept getting browner. Macclesfield looked like Silicon Valley.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I would also suggest that green fields north of a certain point are perfectly normal in the summer. Whereas London gets brown grass basically every year, we certainly don't even in the very good summers. The grass now is browner than I can remember it for many, many years.


For this location, brown grass indicates fantastic weather. Green grass just indicates normal weather - whereas in London, green grass in July or August would probably indicate bad weather. 


 Also, north of Watford includes places like Cambridge which is one of the driest and warmest places in summer in the UK. I think they've done okay in recent years.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
28 June 2018 18:59:03


 


To be fair, that's a lot more normal than the reverse. And then there are those of us in northeastern parts who have also missed out on some SE-only hot spells while also doing worse this year due to the perpetual easterly winds. And you have to feel doubly sorry for people on the east coast who probably haven't had any genuine warm weather at all this year.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Yes can’t argue with any of that. 


In other news, ECM ends with yet more high pressure. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2018 19:05:27
By the way ECM looks lovely. Makes me feel very pro-European.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Tom Oxon
28 June 2018 20:11:48

By the way ECM looks lovely. Makes me feel very pro-European.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


Stonking ECM, more of the same please.  My second child was born on 19th, which was excellent timing for this warm weather.  What a good lad, I've even got a tan line on my time off so I want to keep it topped up 


S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.

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