Model Output Discussion 08/05/18 10:06 >>>>· Page 33

xioni2
Advanced Member

01 July 2018 19:00:55

I take it you are quite young xioni ? Im guessing you don't remember 1995 or weren't around in 76 that was the best summer of my lifetime,the current heatwave is cool compared to that year.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine

I was young in 1995 but I think only July and August were special, while this year May-June have been very good and if July verifies so anticyclonic, then it will probably beat 1995 regardless of August?

Also not a great fan of extreme heat, 24-28C with low humidity and a breeze is the perfect summer weather for me, usable and comfortable.

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

01 July 2018 19:02:27

#802

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=360&mode=1&carte=0

A few GEFS bring some blowtorch uppers close for mid month. A worrying sight. Hopefully those orange colours will stay well south

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

01 July 2018 19:03:54

#803

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=360&mode=1&carte=0

A few GEFS bring some blowtorch uppers close for mid month. A worrying sight. Hopefully those orange colours will stay well south

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Hopefully not.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

David M Porter
Advanced Member

01 July 2018 19:06:31

#804

I was young in 1995 but I think only July and August were special, while this year May-June have been very good and if July verifies so anticyclonic, then it will probably beat 1995 regardless of August?

Also not a great fan of extreme heat, 24-28C with low humidity and a breeze is the perfect summer weather for me, usable and comfortable.

Originally Posted by: xioni2

I was 15 in 1995 and remember the great summer very well. As you say, July and August that year were both fabulous but late June also saw a notable heatwave which saw temps in the high 20s in parts of Scotland. Indeed, last week was the hottest we have had it in Glasgow in any June day since 1995 and even managed to beat the highest temperature we had here that June. I think that the often cool and cloudy first half of June 1995 skews some people's perceptions of that month a bit, as although the first half wasn't great, the final ten or so days of that month more than made up for it IMO.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Weathermac
Advanced Member

01 July 2018 19:18:12

#805

Having been lucky to enjoy both 1976 and 1995 this year has a more 1976 feel to it imo but if july follows the current forecast it could well become a classic one thats talked about in the years ahead .

marco 79
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 06:48:31

#806

Oz op brings sustained HP for at least the next 10 days....droughtfest looks like continuing unabated for most....

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

02 July 2018 06:57:29

#807

GEFS 00z again showing the possibility of #blowtorch #furnaceheat next week. 2m temps don't look particularly impressive but you've got wonder whether 40C is a possibility if this continues for a few weeks.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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moomin75
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 07:00:56

#808

GEFS 00z again showing the possibility of #blowtorch #furnaceheat next week. 2m temps don't look particularly impressive but you've got wonder whether 40C is a possibility if this continues for a few weeks.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

A surprisingly high number of rainfall spikes between 5th and 8th July. I can't see rain on the horizon.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

TimS
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 07:17:44

#809

A surprisingly high number of rainfall spikes between 5th and 8th July. I can't see rain on the horizon.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

GFS has upwards of 30mm falling in parts of the South this week. It also plans on dumping 100mm+ over central France. 50mm of that falls on Wed night. Not for the first time it anticipates Southern England ending the 2 week run with more than a months worth of accumulated rainfall. So either it’s on to something that other models don’t buy yet, or it’s got a problem with over modelling convective rainfall.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

02 July 2018 07:25:20

#810

Here's the GFS 00z 5 day aggregate rainfall:

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

02 July 2018 07:39:20

#811

Arpege 00z aggregate rainfall:

ICON aggregate rainfall.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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redmoons
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 07:50:54

#812

Arpege 00z aggregate rainfall:

ICON aggregate rainfall.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

On the last chart, how can you have minus rainfall?

Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 08:19:52

#813

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

ECM mean shows a cool off day 10, but still dry and warm in the south

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

xioni2
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 08:20:22

#814

GFS has upwards of 30mm falling in parts of the South this week. It also plans on dumping 100mm+ over central France. 50mm of that falls on Wed night. Not for the first time it anticipates Southern England ending the 2 week run with more than a months worth of accumulated rainfall. So either it’s on to something that other models don’t buy yet, or it’s got a problem with over modelling convective rainfall.

Originally Posted by: TimS

GFS overdoes it, but at the moment it looks like a ~60% chance of thundery showers for Thu/Fri.

Caz
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 08:31:10

#815

On the last chart, how can you have minus rainfall?

Originally Posted by: redmoons

Evaporation?

Actually, it’s minus zero, so it isn’t minus anything, so why the minus symbol?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 08:42:09

#816

Impressive.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 08:55:42

#817

Evaporation? Actually, it’s minus zero, so it isn’t minus anything, so why the minus symbol?

Originally Posted by: Caz

You see -0 on charts sometimes too I believe, and I just assume it's rounded to 0 but subzero, like -0.2 or something.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Caz
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 09:03:20

#818

You see -0 on charts sometimes too I believe, and I just assume it's rounded to 0 but subzero, like -0.2 or something.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

Hmmm! But as Redmoons says, how can you have minus rainfall?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

02 July 2018 09:23:29

#819

Not sure about the - symbol that appears next to rainfall at times. I'll investigate when I get chance.

Edit: see here

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/faq/why-does-accumulated-precipitation-has-sometimes-negative-values

Edited by user 02 July 2018 09:26:14 | Reason: Not specified

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 09:47:27

#820

Not sure about the - symbol that appears next to rainfall at times. I'll investigate when I get chance.

Edit: see here

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/faq/why-does-accumulated-precipitation-has-sometimes-negative-values

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Er ... yes?

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

ballamar
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 09:50:36

#821

Last 2 dry Wimbledon’s were 2009 and 2010 perhaps there might be another one for 3 in 10 years

johncs2016
Advanced Member

02 July 2018 10:00:52

#822

Last 2 dry Wimbledon’s were 2009 and 2010 perhaps there might be another one for 3 in 10 years

Originally Posted by: ballamar

Those of course, were followed by cold winters so that if we get a dry Wimbledon this year, perhaps that could be a good omen for the coming winter at the end of this year.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.