Yes of course, but this is the model output discussion.

Wrt met office long rangers, the usual caveats apply, as is their default disclaimer. It’s about reading between the lines.

As it was last Saturday. And yes of course the models showed the potential for rain this week which was ignored by some. One only hopes that they learn to look at all model output before being hoisted by their petard again this week.

---

Amen 🙏 

Not a single post about the outlook says it all really!

 

---

Same again from all the runs this morning for next week - N/S split developing from Tuesday with sunny spells and warmer weather (low to mid 20s) in the south, more unsettled and cool in the north. All alreas could see some rain on Thursday as the jet takes a bit of a dip south (although the UKMO keeps this system slightly further north than other runs). Back to the N/S split again from Friday.

So no return to widespread settled conditions or a heatwave over the next week, but much more typical British summer weather with the usual areas seeing the best of the weather (S/SE) and the usual areas seeing the worst (N/NW).

Personally, as a heat lover in summer and being down in the SE, I can’t complain after the weather we’ve had. Today is a beautiful sunny day, after two awful wet days. Sunday and Monday look showery again, so from Tuesday I’ll be more than happy with sunny spells and temperature in the low to mid 20s.

---

We've been treated to extremes of various weather types over the last couple of months. Looking at the current output it looks very... 'normal' with temperatures average to slightly above. A definite north-south split developing as high pressure influences the south with the pattern rather flat. Most of the unsettled weather looks like affecting more northern and western areas.

Nothing out of the ordinary, which for this summer is quite unusual!

 

---

GFS looking decent again for the south Tuesday onwards. Saturday sees pressure building further north too.

UKMO broadly similar to the GFS, however the low on Friday is centred SW of Iceland rather than N of Scotland which may have an impact on how far pressure was to build on Saturday were the UKMO to go out that far.

---

It’s dead in here!

Anyway, the morning runs continue the trend of the last few days for the week ahead. Changeable weather - warmest and driest in the south/SE, wettest and coolest in the N/NW. some rain for all on Monday and Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and warm in the SE/E Anglia with temperatures possibly up to 26/27c in some spots.

More unsettled for all on Thursday with a cold front sweeping down the country. Then breezy on Friday with more rain in the north.

Things settling down again on the weekend, particularly in the south, but pressure starting to build further north too. 

---

I suspect that it is so quiet is because there is nothing spectacular or notable in the model output just standard summer stuff with some unsettled conditions at times and some pleasant and warm weather for many at times. In isolation it is not bad but following the summer we have had so far it is not overly noteworthy.

---

On a positive note this wet weather should at least finally kick off the summer fungi season down here in the south after the dry period. I can't wait to go picking chanterelles & ceps - risotto 🤤😜 

And now that the rain has set in, it looks like Norwich reached 24C in the end - and the dewpoint didn't go below 13C.

As mentioned, it was modelling higher temperatures as the air dried out, which didn't happen. It's a bit concerning that it was wrong for so many runs in a row, but it got there eventually! The prize goes to UKV this time.

 

---

Same thing happens in winter after a cold spell - when it ends, people lose interest and stop posting. Understandable really as the outlook is definitely very uninteresting (which is a good thing in itself as it means there's no low pressure onslaught). 

---

On the plus side for those in the south, it does look like settling down after 4 days in a row where we’ve had at least some rain. There will likely be a little rain tomorrow and everyone will see a little at least on Thursday. Other than that it actually turns quite warm (mid-20s) with some sunshine.

---

Well I'm glued to the models as I'm leading a couple of walks on Sat and Sun in the Lakes. The big 3 show pressure building at the weekend even further north.....will it be in time? 😬

---

If you define settled weather as a day and half without rain than I guess we've lowered the bar on our expectations of settled weather at the end of summer. 

The reality is that without a block out east then the jet is flirting with us this week, with ridges followed by troughs. Typical summer fair, so no-one should complain really.

---

Well I learnt today that an Indian Summer can only be called such if it preceded by an unseasonably cold spell beforehand. Fascinating.

---

Ripening of blackberries? Our blackberries started in the second week of July and are pretty well over now. 

---

I'm not sure that definition is correct.

The late Philip Eden wrote about this some years ago (2011) and his article included

"The latest edition of the Meteorological Glossary defines it thus: "A warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November." So, it is most commonly used in those two months, but the idea of such a spell starting in late-September is not necessarily precluded."

Obviously against a background of general cooling as autumn progresses there will be cooler weather but I don't think there needs to be an 'unseasonably cold spell' first.

---

The same here.. perhaps he meant sloe berries?

Still plenty of blackberries here - they started sometime in July and I suspect they'll be gone before August is over. Seems earlier than normal as I associate blackberries with late August or September.

---

I doubt it.

Blackberries are traditionally harvested in August and September however there will be early and late exceptions from July through to late October and even early November. September into October is the norm for here and I suspect the date gradually gets later as you go futher north, with July being the very earliest possible in the British Isles. In the same way it is not remotely unusual for daffodils to be in full bloom up here in May. It’s just a sign of the different growing seasons nit that people don’t understand! 

There’s not much to say about the model output at the moment. Still nothing special in the outlook and better in the south than the north. Up here at least there is still not much sign of any prolonged summery weather.

---

I always thought blackberries keep producing until the weather turns? I have seen blackberries still blossoming in October. I remember seeing  blackberries at the end of October on the Great Orme, Llandudno. Quite nice they were.

---

Depends on type of blackberry too. Our hedgerow ones are nowhere near ripe yet but the larger 'domestic' type have been ripe for a while now. Sorry about continuing O/T 😐

---

It's the nature thread now 😂 No model discussion? Will that weak ridge modelled for Saturday and Sunday bring fine weather further north?

---

The models introduce a little spoiler low for the north on Sunday/Monday. 

N/S split continuing on this mornings runs, a bit of a step back today on the idea of the ridge building north. Could all change by this afternoon though. 

---