Are we into the part of the year yet when ex-hurricanes can start to impact our weather here in the UK? I assume this part of the reason why August is statistically a wetter month on average than June or July.

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I believe it's September and October that are the main months for ex-hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Rainfall amounts in August are boosted mostly by convective activity. Not unknown though for old tropical storms to upset summer weather in the UK - ex-hurricane Bertha is one good example of that.

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For next week this morning’s GFS looks best from a fine and settled point of view, UKMO looks v poor out to Wednesday and the ECM is somewhere in between.

We’re still not much further forward in getting to grips on exactly how next week will play out.

I think the Met Office 10-day trend forecast yesterday sums up what we know at the moment - wettest in the NW and warmest in the SE. The north on all runs looks prone to cool and wet weather, in the south each model shows something a bit different. 

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looks like summer is well and truly over. cool and unsettled for the forseasble. An anti-climax to end a great summer. It may warm up again later in the month but perhaps only to the mid 20s

 

 

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So one day it's looking hot next week and the next day summer is over (again) ?

No, it's looking exactly as it has for days now - average to rather warm, with perhaps an odd warm day in the SE.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

ECM this morning has warmed up a degree or two on Monday and Tuesday, reverting to near-average after that. Down here at least although some rain is likely, it's not going to make much of a dent in the deficit we've had over the past few months.

GEFS also shows average to rather warm conditions.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

And as usual, the odds of hot weather returning remain in the single-figures percentage wise.

 

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Have you applied for a job with GFS or ECM or UKMO I`m sure with your crystal ball forecasts they might be interested.

 

I think he's more suited to be a Daily Express headline writer.

 

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The prophecy of John Hammond hasn't been mentioned for a few days

Well August is turning into a washout down here. Its freezing outside and looks like staying cool and unsettled for a while

Its not what the warm boosters want to hear, but John was spot on

 

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I understand your distress. Its the same for me in February when its clear winter is slipping away (obviously last winter was different with the SSW and the Beast in March)

 

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Not sure if I should even waste my time responding to this but I will - one day does not maketh a washout. Stop trolling. 

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Referring back to the models, the 06z GFS output has things pleasantly warm over England at least, for much of the period. Briefly distracted by the current cynicism, I looked at the ENS, expecting the green line to be high on the graph compared to others, but it's actually mid-pack, with a fair cluster of Ps notably higher, to the end of the run. So an open field still- hedging towards more summer warmth in the south.

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We won't know until August 31st or even few days before that whether or not his prediction was correct or not.

The MetO updates don't exactly buy into this notion of the remainder of August being a washout, and for what it's worth neither does GFS FI.

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Well said. It's ridiculous the level of hyperbole you have to wade through sometimes to get to decent MO analysis.

I've just been looking at the GEFS and they're not that bad. I'm not too fussed about seeing extreme temps (they're nice to get, but more a cherry on the cake thing); it's dry, settled, warm (or at least warmish) and decent sunshine levels that I look for.

For Liverpool, after a wet Sunday/Monday, the PPN spikes aren't too problematic. 2 or 3 runs (including the Control) are a fair bit wetter than others, but the mean is OK. Similar story across most of England & Wales, with - predictably - the south being driest in the mid-to-longer term.

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Thanks Bert. Took me a few pages but I have found  something non agenda-driven. 

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Uppers remain for most of the perts above average for London from the 12th...also op keeps things relatively dry too....after today's rain in the SE....much the same from North mids south....

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GEM 12z looking good tonight

The GFS FI scatter seems to be gradually trending warmer than average, with a drier but not totally dry theme - I've not checked the postage stamps so no idea if the pattern supports convection or not.

Just going by GFS (and for the South) I'd go with warm to occasionally very warm being the form horse after the next few cooler days, although with the odd cooler blip thrown in too. There's still an outside chance of getting some genuinely hot weather although that's not favoured imo. Scotland looks cooler and more unsettled, although with a few warmer (but not that warm) days here and there.

ECM Op shows some cooler air for the near future, followed by some warmer uppers before a vigorous looking low for Friday 17th, but ends with quite a strong ridge pushed over much of the UK and some warmer uppers poised to our West as the ridge moves over.

Be interesting to see how things go - I get the feeling we're getting warmth due to LPs dragging warm air up now, rather than due to static blocking HPs and wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS FI signal resolve in to a pattern of a couple of days of warm/very warm (down here) before a cool down as the LP nudges any HP aside, with further ridge/trough after that.

I'd also not be surprised to see some big swings in temps on FI - if the model over does the Atlantic the cooler theme it would then show would be wrong and equally if the strength of the HP ridges is overdone any warm signal will be overdone. Not something that FI is going to get right, so pinch of salt whether the signals hot or cool might be worth while

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Having finally zoned out from focusing on the U.K. in the model output I’m pleased to say the prospects for central France remain warm and fairly settled for the foreseeable future, on all models. Southern and central U.K. is on the edge of the good and bad stuff which explains the debates on here. Further South it’s generally pretty good, and further North it’s rubbish. Proper zonal summer weather.

We had about 30mm of thundery rain here today so the drought is over, but it remains a very hot and unusually dry summer on the Eastern side of France, and a very wet one in the West and South.

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Yup. Even in northern France the outlook is solidly good, with Paris remaining very warm. Really shows how the UK often receives the short end of the stick weather-wise.

In any case, for the short to medium term it's looking okay for this part of the world, highs of 21-23C with sunny spells and showers. I think tomorrow could be the worst day of the week depending on how many heavy showers we get.

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This summer has been over at least 80 Times so far this summer, and those are just the ones I can remember. Meanwhile 25c widely in the SE on Sunday. 

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25C when the average is 22 to 23 at this time of year. That's rather warm, just as has been forecast by GEFS and EPS for days now.

Still no change in the models, FWIW. Average to rather warm, chance of the odd warm day but next to no chance of hot conditions.

EPS shows a mean for London hovering around the 21-23 range from Sunday onwards:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

while GEFS shows the mean reaching as high as 25C on a couple of days:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

My money would be with EPS, as it's been spot-on this last week, but with three members out of 22 reaching 30C with GEFS there's still something for the heat-hounds to cling to.

 

 

 

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Lovely warm and very dry London ensembles from Sunday onwards for the foreseeable:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Summer ain’t going anywhere son.

Phew! High pressure over north & Central Europe puts us back to our late June pattern later on.
The models have picked up on this and stuck with it for some time now.
A game changer IMO