Maybe it's just my perception, but for me model consistency throughout this summer for much of the time has not been particularly high once we go beyond a week or so ahead, even with the predominantly settled weather. Although last summer, as with the majority of summers over the past decade, was much more unsettled, model reliability last year seemed to be better when it came to prospects for further ahead.

I'd be interested to hear what others think though.

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I think there is a hemispheric wavelength number/pattern that models struggle with and we've been in that now since about mid-July.... a sort of will it/wont it pattern.  Last year (and for several years) the models where more reliable because the pattern was strongly biased towards mobility. This year, earlier on in the summer the pattern was strongly blocked and also predictable.  At the moment, the pattern is marginal for mobility/blocking with a slowly progressive pattern now dominating. The detail more than a few days ahead as you say seems to be a struggle for most models with various EPS showing lots of variability.  

I said a while back, (mid-July) that the pattern looked like becoming more of a classic climatological NW/SE split for the UK and that's what happened.  It was effectively the usual mid-July pattern change - which was less pronounced than normal and has left the south-eastern third of the the UK with a summer while areas further northwest have reverted to normal. 

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Ridging looks to be slightly more prominent from early next week according to the 06 op...could change by next run though...

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The GFS 6z continues from other runs this morning what must be quite a dispiriting outlook for northern members looking for a return to sunshine and warmth. Any build of high pressure further north that has been showing into the weekend has been quashed this morning with a new little low pressure that is due to skirt across northern parts Sunday into Monday. The 6z shows high pressure building further north by Tuesday and later into next week where it becomes dominant. However, that is over a week away and has been pushed back from this weekend. Could all change again on the 12z's, so let's hope this morning's runs have placed that low on Sunday/Monday too far south and it trends north.

For southern areas, barring Thursday, the picture is one of general improvement from the last 4/5 days of unsettled weather. Today is showery, but from tomorrow things pick up with dry, warm and quite sunny weather. Temperatures should hit the mid 20's. We introduce some slightly cooler air again on Thursday with some rain for most, then pressure builds to the south once again on Friday and into the weekend with temperatures slowly getting back into the mid-20's. Very uncertain still into next week, some runs continue the N/S theme, others such as the GFS 6z wants to build high pressure more widely. 

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GFS still producing pulses of warmth for the south, and even hinting at the same further north later on, but interruoted from time to time so no long settled spell.

Disturbance 98L (which if it develops will become Ernesto) currently not showing on GFS but could inject more moisture into the N Atlantic circulation in a week or so, much as Debbie did last week. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

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Climate rules in the reliable it seems, but with a vested interest in 22nd to 27th as I'll be standing in a field in Leeds wondering where all the good music went (but happily glamping it big style), the BH week/weekend is still up for grabs. Atlantic driven 70%, HP/Plume 30% IMO

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So quiet here as the output is extremely boring from here to the north no action on hot nationwide spell set-up as expected August always a poor month but now hoping for a good September nationwide. The N/S split is the most boring set-up for all of us even like today under very warm uppers i don't see any blazing hot sunny morning yet.

I think this morning's ECM op run offers hope if you want a return to dry and warm conditions.

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It’s the ECM vs GFS & possibly the UKMO this morning. UKMO only goes out to Tuesday but follows the GFS in building heights out west, with low pressure looking primed to dive south across the UK bringing cooler, NW’erly winds. The GFS develops this idea later next week with high pressure out west and troughing over Scandi = cool N/NW winds.

The ECM on the other hand is the complete opposite late next week. It develops that low to the north on Tuesday, but then pressure tends to build over and then to the east of the UK, drawing up hot continental air.

Is the ECM out on it’s own or has it picked up on a new trend? We’re being shown two completely different outcomes by the models as we head towards the bank holiday weekend - cool north-westerly or hot south-easterly.

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My gut is telling me the ECM is nearer the mark, and the GFS has  overcooked cycolgenesis. 

Time will tell, too early to have confidence in either solution.

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I am very much hoping that ECM is onto something, as August so far here hasn't even come close to matching the heights of earlier in the summer.

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The north is well over due for some nice warm settled weather round there and like to see off August a better month at least for many of us.  August is often a nasty month for many of us here.

Control, Op and all but 5 of the Ps are well below the LTM around 26th, on the GEFS 6z. Interesting agreement, as recent runs have had the Op stretching away from the pack, north and south.

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GEFS still show a marked cool down towards the end of next week..after today's rain in South it looks relatively dry heading up to B/H weekend...ECM shows a similar cool down briefly...but then warms things up in time for the holiday weekend...

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Its been a while but its nice to see 1020mb making it north of the border at 144 hours. Even if it is only for a couple of days. 

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Should be nice after the frost melts.

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The operational looks very cool a week on Friday and Saturday with maxima well below the long term average. Single figures even at 3pm in the highlands of Scotland on the Saturday. Low to mid teens for the rest of the country, except for the south-east which basks in the relative warmth of 18C.

Saying all that, it warms up for all in the following week.

 

 

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The 12z ECM (850s)was at the bottom of the interquartile range for London for deep FI - I would say the output is showing the chance of trending warmer than some might be hoping for/ expecting, and I see this as potentially helping to sustain a CET August finish not that far from 18c! Fascinating times!

Edit - GEFS 12z Pert 7 shows the way:

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A CET of around 17.48 is looking odds on based on the mean of all output tonight.

The models continue to paint a N/S split (but still a reasonable setup for most) as summer slowly surrenders into early autumn.

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A man can dream.

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I invite you to scan through the much respected CFS out to the end of August

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

 

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ECM again towards the bottom 75% of ensemble members in deep FI. All good news for a chance of the CET buoying up.

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The NW’erly has been watered down on this mornings runs. All in all the week ahead looks fine and warm for many, always that bit more unsettled further north.

We do get a NW airflow of sorts by Friday but then both the GFS and ECM show the high building back in, to southern parts at least, by the weekend.

So no heatwave (although it could temporarily get into the high 20s midweek in the south) but plenty of fine, settled weather with low to mid 20’s for many. Can hardly complain with that.

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Yes, the Bank Holiday weekend is looking a lot better now than it was - at least on GFS. Let's hope it doesn't flip back again over the next few days. 

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