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doctormog
25 August 2018 14:39:22


 


 


I have two weeks off from 7th September. I'll happily take a 2006 scenario with a disappointing August leading to a beautiful September. 


Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 


I find that September is often better overall than August here, although my point in the chart that I posted was in reply to the September warmth was highlighting the sub528dam air in northern parts of Shetland. 


Retron
25 August 2018 15:57:14


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Mmm... (where's the drool emote?)


Amazing, frankly. I don't think I've ever seen a GFS chart bringing the -5C 850 line across Scotland from a run in August before!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png


537dam in the far north too:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_384_ukthickness850nohd.png?cb


Fantastic stuff. I would imagine that has about as much chance of coming off as a win on the National Lottery tonight!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
25 August 2018 17:09:59


 


Mmm... (where's the drool emote?)


Amazing, frankly. I don't think I've ever seen a GFS chart bringing the -5C 850 line across Scotland from a run in August before!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png


537dam in the far north too:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_384_ukthickness850nohd.png?cb


Fantastic stuff. I would imagine that has about as much chance of coming off as a win on the National Lottery tonight!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Gone on the 12z update as expected. Nonetheless I have a gut feeling that September could deliver an early and "potent" cold snap.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
25 August 2018 23:18:57

Bit of a model divergence for Sat 1st Sept - 7 days time . . .

GFS hangs onto the dry, warm and settled theme: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018082518/gfs-0-162.png?18

ECM looking more unsettled: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018082512/ECM1-168.GIF?25-0

More so with GEM: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2018082512/gem-0-168.png?12

Still a little beyond UKMO's range, so I'm still no wiser with the forecast for my nephew's wedding on that day.


Folkestone Harbour. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 August 2018 06:26:02

ECM has joined GEM this morning. All a question of whether that small but potent depression moves in a sits over us, or as GFS has it, stands off in the Atlantic and brings up aoutherly air. See T+216.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hungry Tiger
26 August 2018 13:20:11


 


Gone on the 12z update as expected. Nonetheless I have a gut feeling that September could deliver an early and "potent" cold snap.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


What do you mean by potent for early September?  I would describe it as low double figure maximums by day and single figure night time minimums with ground frosts in places and possibly an air frost in one or two areas.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
26 August 2018 13:25:17
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_264_17.png 

Again, nothing unusual and likely to be gone in a few hours but highlights that autumn is approaching.
Brian Gaze
26 August 2018 13:34:48


What do you mean by potent for early September?  I would describe it as low double figure maximums by day and single figure night time minimums with ground frosts in places and possibly an air frost in one or two areas.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Hungry Tiger
26 August 2018 13:54:06


 


I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


My goodness - that's more intense than I would have thought. I can well imagine that is possible though.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 August 2018 17:04:52
Taking of snow falling: 12z gives us a (warm) Beast from the East. Proper set up: pressure rises, isobars tighten, airmass rushes towards us from the Baltic. Keep an eye on these runs as we head towards winter - this isn’t the first one in the last week.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
LeedsLad123
26 August 2018 17:07:55


 


I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Has that even happened before? It's hard enough getting snow before December - it's very uncommon in November and very rare in October (I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen snow falling in October in my lifetime).


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
26 August 2018 17:14:14


 


Has that even happened before? It's hard enough getting snow before December - it's very uncommon in November and very rare in October (I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen snow falling in October in my lifetime).


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


1919 and 1952 I believe but it is exceptionally rare. 


johncs2016
26 August 2018 17:16:30


 


1919 and 1952 I believe but it is exceptionally rare. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


If I remember rightly though, it has even been known to snow in June before even though it is very rare for that to happen.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
26 August 2018 17:21:36
Yes, you’re right. Most famously in 1975 and rather less so in 1985.
Brian Gaze
26 August 2018 17:34:17

According to the UK Met Office:


On 25 September 1885 snow was reported to have fallen at London and Wallington in Surrey making it the earliest fall of snow on the capital


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LeedsLad123
26 August 2018 17:48:51

Yes, you’re right. Most famously in 1975 and rather less so in 1985.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I wonder if snow to low levels has occurred more in June than September. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case..


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
26 August 2018 17:55:15


1919 and 1952 I believe but it is exceptionally rare. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


The year my gran and my mum were born, respectively. An amusing coincidence!


As Brian says, sleet has been recorded in London in September in the 1880s - along with sleet in July. It's one of those things that's possible, but incredibly unlikely. Further north the odds have to be higher, but still pretty small.


Leysdown, north Kent
LeedsLad123
26 August 2018 18:19:56


 


The year my gran and my mum were born, respectively. An amusing coincidence!


As Brian says, sleet has been recorded in London in September in the 1880s - along with sleet in July. It's one of those things that's possible, but incredibly unlikely. Further north the odds have to be higher, but still pretty small.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Even the talk of snow in October to me seems amazing simply because it is so rare, so the thought of snow or even sleet in September seems unthinkable. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 August 2018 21:02:15


 


Even the talk of snow in October to me seems amazing simply because it is so rare, so the thought of snow or even sleet in September seems unthinkable. 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


The October 2008 snowfall is the best example down here in recent times:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1680


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681


However, it also snowed in October 2010 as well I think. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Sevendust
26 August 2018 22:34:35
Anyway, the ensembles for London remain very dry.
NickR
26 August 2018 22:57:14


 


The October 2008 snowfall is the best example down here in recent times:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1680


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681


However, it also snowed in October 2010 as well I think. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's snowed in 3 Octobers here since 2010, I think.


Last year we had snow in every month from November to May.


 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
26 August 2018 22:59:50


 


If I remember rightly though, it has even been known to snow in June before even though it is very rare for that to happen.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


North Pennines about 6 years ago about 7 June. It maxed out at 6°C here in Durham, went up to the Pennines and there was snow at around 3°C.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
LeedsLad123
26 August 2018 23:20:35


 


It's snowed in 3 Octobers here since 2010, I think.


Last year we had snow in every month from November to May.


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


I remember snow in October twice - first was 2000, and second was I think 2015. Both occasions were just a bit of short-lived light snow at the end of the month, neither settling.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 August 2018 08:10:39
This morning’s ensembles (both GEM and GFS) are very warm and dry indeed. ECM is very dry. Interesting prospects for early September.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
27 August 2018 08:15:38

I have no clear recollection of snow falling to low ground in October in my neck of the woods in time in the past, but we have had some pretty chilly days for sure especially late on in the month. October 2008 for example, which ties in with the very early snowfalls that some aread in the south saw then which Brian mentioned above.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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