theweatheroutlook

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idj20
18 September 2018 17:30:13


GFS really has gone off on one this afternoon - I hope!


From the excellent XCWeather, for my back yard (north Kent):



EDIT: GFS has mean 70mph windspeeds just off the east coast of England on Sunday... that's just a couple of mph short of hurricane force. Scary and I hope it's wrong!


Originally Posted by: Retron 



A tile ripper "IF" that came off. This type of weather really holds no interest for me whatsoever, but the saving grace is this occurring on a Sunday rather than during a morning rush hour in the working week.

For now, UKMO and GEM aren't being quite so dramatic about it, so let's see what the ECM come up with. I'm thinking GFS, being an US model is still under the influence of ex-Hurricane Florence, hence the recent runs showing the over the top wind speeds.  

Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
18 September 2018 17:35:43

GEM develops a feature on Sunday too. Mean wind speeds below suggests gusts of 60 - 70mph in the North Sea / English Channel.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=117&chartname=windvector&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20(mph)


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
18 September 2018 17:51:06
The GFS ENS mean not as bullish about Sunday as the OP but it’s still there so the solution has decent support. It’s my humble opinion that GFS OP has the resolution to resolve the detail of phasing even at this range so despite sketchy cross model support it has to be a risk.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gavin P
18 September 2018 18:01:40


GEM develops a feature on Sunday too. Mean wind speeds below suggests gusts of 60 - 70mph in the North Sea / English Channel.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=117&chartname=windvector&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20(mph)


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Well spotted Brian. 


I thought GEM was a lot less intense but now I see it was pretty bad (just more limited)

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2018 18:27:29
ECM is getting on board.

I think Jeff Masters should do a blog post on it.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
marco 79
18 September 2018 18:44:33
Sunday looks truly stormy ..GFS op especially which has kept on churning out recurring synoptics for 36 hrs ...ECM now progging similar synoptics...according to GFS ...Sunday afternoon wind gusts across E.Midlands upto 80mph....with trees still fully leaved ....This could be quite an experience ....Big Watch out .
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
ozone_aurora
18 September 2018 18:51:34

Met office has not picked up the storm for early next week here (or at least not yet). Instead it gives a shallow low or frontal wave in the S on 23rd, but builds into a strong low over central Europe.

briggsy6
18 September 2018 19:22:35

Autumn proper  has arrived all of a sudden.

Location: Uxbridge
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2018 19:41:34


Cumbria too. Chance for the under-utilised wind turbines that had a bit of an off summer to start getting even with solar generation.


114kph gusts in the channel on Friday, and then 137kph down the North Sea on Sunday. Not as extreme as GFS but still pretty windy.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
doctormog
18 September 2018 19:43:45


 


Cumbria too. Chance for the under-utilised wind turbines that had a bit of an off summer to start getting even with solar generation.


114kph gusts in the channel on Friday, and then 137kph down the North Sea on Sunday. Not as extreme as GFS but still pretty windy.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


It’s funny that you mention that as Aberdeen has IMO had a very non-windy few months. The significance? We have just had an offshore wind farm installed and activated. 


Edit: Apologies too, that 148kph is for Cumbria and not in Scotland. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2018 19:43:48


 


Cumbria too. Chance for the under-utilised wind turbines that had a bit of an off summer to start getting even with solar generation.


114kph gusts in the channel on Friday, and then 137kph down the North Sea on Sunday. Not as extreme as GFS but still pretty windy.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Aye, it always Wednesday here - bin day so no doubt a few extra hazards on the roads tomorrow along with the usual branches and leaves.

johncs2016
18 September 2018 19:51:01


Well, I suppose that if there's anything positive about that, it would at least mean that I wouldn't need to be using words such as 'borefest' or phrases such as 'grey nothingness' in the daily CC threads over the next day or so.



 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Arcus
18 September 2018 19:58:02

Interesting. Very Interesting.



EDIT: apologies, looks like the 00z, although Meteociel marked it as "New". 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Polar Low
18 September 2018 20:02:04

Dont think about getting in a boat tomorrow Michael 🤡


 


Southerly or southwesterly 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later.Sea stateModerate or rough, becoming very rough or high later.WeatherRain or showers.VisibilityGood, becoming moderate or poor later.


 



 


It’s funny that you mention that as Aberdeen has IMO had a very non-windy few months. The significance? We have just had an offshore wind farm installed and activated. 


Edit: Apologies too, that 148kph is for Cumbria and not in Scotland. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Arcus
18 September 2018 20:04:08


 


It’s funny that you mention that as Aberdeen has IMO had a very non-windy few months. The significance? We have just had an offshore wind farm installed and activated. 


Edit: Apologies too, that 148kph is for Cumbria and not in Scotland. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Ouch.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
nsrobins
18 September 2018 20:07:53


 


It’s funny that you mention that as Aberdeen has IMO had a very non-windy few months. The significance? We have just had an offshore wind farm installed and activated. 


Edit: Apologies too, that 148kph is for Cumbria and not in Scotland. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Agreed Doc - Central Belt especially vulnerable with funnelling. Could be very lively in Edinburgh tomorrow.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
18 September 2018 20:21:31

Seems the Met Office is catching on. Sunday looking certain to be a gale-force type day.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Gavin P
18 September 2018 20:48:23

So I tweeted UKMO to ask whether the weekend's low (if it happens) would be named Florence or Bronagh and apparently the chief forecaster said it WOULDN'T be Florence (as that system will no longer exists, even though it contains some of the warm air that was part of Florence)


Not sure how to embed tweets but you can see here:


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1042149385763790848


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
nsrobins
18 September 2018 21:20:30


So I tweeted UKMO to ask whether the weekend's low (if it happens) would be named Florence or Bronagh and apparently the chief forecaster said it WOULDN'T be Florence (as that system will no longer exists, even though it contains some of the warm air that was part of Florence)


Not sure how to embed tweets but you can see here:


https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1042149385763790848


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


😂


So we’ve now also got to factor in the ‘when does an ex-tropical system become an ex ex-tropical system’ argument into the classification. 


We could easily have the situation where Bronagh, aka ex Florence, becomes Dagmar in Norway, Adam in Denmark before morphing into Otto in Germany.


Aplogies for sounding like a stuck record, but the situation is  an embarrassment.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gavin P
18 September 2018 21:24:36


  


We could easily have the situation where Bronagh, aka ex Florence, becomes Dagmar in Norway, Adam in Denmark before morphing into Otto in Germany.


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 



Counter argument is that they say they have evidence that naming storms saves lives (as people are more likely to heed to the warnings than if they just say it's an area of low pressure) -  Personally I'm not a fan as it all seems very arbitrary and random, especially when you're dealing with a storm that has its origins in a storm that's already been named...


But I think we just have accept that it is what it is and "go with the flow" LOL! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ballamar
18 September 2018 22:24:05
GFS not backing down from a vicious storm Sunday - could cause serious problems on the coast. Hopefully will not be as serious as latest run
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 September 2018 03:54:01



Counter argument is that they say they have evidence that naming storms saves lives (as people are more likely to heed to the warnings than if they just say it's an area of low pressure) -  Personally I'm not a fan as it all seems very arbitrary and random, especially when you're dealing with a storm that has its origins in a storm that's already been named...


But I think we just have accept that it is what it is and "go with the flow" LOL! 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I’d disagree with their logic!  I think people would be more inclined to heed warnings of named ex-hurricanes because the media will have already made them aware of their potential across the pond!  Surely that would be more simple, then they don’t have to just say ‘area of low pressure’!


And I agree with a previous post.  We’re more likely to remember them if they’re named after dates, like ‘Valentine’s Day storm’, so they could be named retrospectively.  I think it’s more a case of re-naming storms just so the Met Office can ‘own’ them!  But, as you say, we just have to go with the flow!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 September 2018 04:46:10

GFS still not backing down 70 - 90 mph gusts for many on Sunday afternoon. Trees in full leaf would be carnage but long way out still.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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