Although this would be quite exceptional: snow in S England in the first week of October?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

No way.

I really hope we don't get our winter too early, and then when it should be the depths of winter, it's crap - mild & wet.

Although I'd take a repeat of winter 2010/11.

Never mind the snow, what about the rain? The South Coast has been living a charmed life this last week while everywhere from the Midlands northwards has been seeing rain. Now we get our share, and then some as wave depressions run along the Channel, one today and another tomorrow, each of which could deliver an inch or so. Each run on the MetO site looks increasingly as if it will be southern counties getting it, perhaps with Birmingham on the northern edge.

The weather down here has been abnomal since about March: first we had the late cold spell, then a very extended dry spell from about Apr/May onwards, a roasting hot summer now a flip to wet weather though only short lived by the looks of it.

850s temp range for the SE R=20°C from 3rd October onwards.

Serious case of the uncertain model!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=777

That shows average temperatures? 

W Europe generally below average for the next 2 weeks, especially cold in Norway and only Iberia hanging on to warmth. But dry, xo hopefully nice in sunshine

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Will be interesting if that intrduces some early snow cover to scandinavia, the last time that happened early in the season (i think) was heading into 2010.

That being said, that started to happen end of October, not the start of.

Interesting times, and way against the norm.

Startlingly dry on the GEFS for my neck of the woods. Should be a really nice autumn spell of sunny days and cool nights.

Some long range models are going for a cool or chilly October.

Its been some years since that last happened.

GEFS flipped to warm uppers.

Yeah the models have decided to keep high pressure centered almost over the country (for now) which means those cool/cold north/north-westerlies are shunted into Scandinavia and north-east Europe.

Will be interesting to see if the ridge does eventually pull back into the mid-Atlantic and open the door to the north later in October?

I have a feeling October will give us a fairly sharp northerly at some point but we'll see...

And based on the 12s it's looking less certain again.

Some notable October warmth on offer on the 12Z GFS, with low or even mid 20s a possibility.

Gone again on the 00z, indeed a complete reversal with a vicious-looking cold depression over England

www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_288_mslp500.png?cb=819

Is Leslie out in the Atlantic creating problems for the models?

And just to make the point, the 12z has the warm HP back again!

First geese seen flying over.  A few days earlier than last few years and my cue to rejoin the MOD

Regarding models seems to be a tendency for the Azores high to ridge NE.  A recurring theme perhaps?

Early winter just across the North Sea with temps around 4C below normal

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

and the precipitation (ca 50mm in each of the next two weeks) will certainly be as snow on the mountains

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Settled conditions look set to continue for at least another week. Really has been a remarkable run since late April here probably only 5 or so what you'd call wet and windy days in that time.