http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_171_1.png 

Could be a nice sting under the main low if this is correct

Inevitably the very large rainfall totals are causing significant flooding problems. The BBC suggested this morning the of flooding was the most severe since Storm Desmond. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-45795343 

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I've noticed that the Met Office have now issued a yellow warning for rain in this area for Saturday so if that is right, the might finally at long last be some much needed rainfall heading in this direction by the weekend. Furthermore, it is nice to see both the ECMWF and the GFS trending wetter than average here for a change as was shown on both of Gavin P.'s videos which he put out today.

I am still a bit sceptical because all too often, these unsettled spells have been very brief when they have happened (hence, the reason why we haven't had any wetter than average months since April) but at least, this gives us a glimmer of hope that this long extended period of drier than average weather might finally be coming to an end in these parts, and that we might at long last, actually start to make up that rainfall deficit which was built up during the first half of the summer, in particular.

On another note, it is looking as though we might have Storm Callum on the scene on around Friday (although that is yet to be confirmed) and it is remarkable that even this early in the season, we will already be onto our third named storm under the current joint UK/Ireland system if that happens. I know that this system hasn't been in place for all that long, but this is quite remarkable when you consider that when Storm Desmond caused all of those flooding problems back in December 2015 (in this naming system's very first season), it was only our fourth named storm of that season which incorporated that very mild, wet and stormy winter of 2015/16 (which is date, is still our last wetter than average winter in these parts).

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Storm on Friday/Saturday with lots of rain for Wales and the west, but southerly winds then resume for a while until the remnants of Michael combine with the jet stream to give more active depressions with a predominantly NW airflow in a week's time.

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Interesting on the 6z today/

 

I realise its one run, but on this run we see HP cells coming through from US and loading up a midatlantic block with the NAO then going seemingly strongly negative, with the hint of the pressure then slowly migrating further north at the end of the run. 

This is not an isolated  trend, recent runs have hinted at something like this developing.

 I realise this doesnt get us to a wintry conclusion, but its miles ahead of what we usually see.

What an odd autumn we are having compared to recent years, Frost and potential wintry synoptics before autumn is half way through, usually its December before we see things like this.

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It’s been an odd year altogether and it feels like there’s been a shift in weather patterns. We had cold and snow in March, then a quick transition to a warm and dry April, followed by a hot, dry Summer.  Nothing would surprise me for the rest of this year and next. 

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=522

 

A 1 on the snow row for London around the 24th October!!!!

Probably gone on the next one 

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No snow row on the 00Z but it ends with a massive northerly plunge and the whole country below -5C at 850mb. 

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Up to 7 on the Inverness ensemble this morning. Perhaps worth keeping an eye on?

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I think so, that Mid atlantic Ridge is starting to become a bit of a theme for the latter par of the run.  this mornings 00z run seems even stronger, with north west europe slowly entering the freezer.

 

 

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Meantime in the near term the weekends rain looks worrying for some particularly the Welsh valleys upward of 150mm for some. could be very noteworthy

Yes, you’re right and this is still the biggest issue currently, especially for parts of Wales.

 

On a different topic, and deep in FI, I see that the snow row number on the “Inverness” GEFS data is up to 14 towards the end of the set.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb 

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Its started 

Meanwhile there is some consistency out to a week or so. Beyond that its normal chaos 

 

It started weeks ago (in the model output). 

I‘m sure you’ll get a "1” on the snow row by sometime in mid-January so don’t panic yet. 

Edit: On the subject of consistency the value has been updated to 13 for Inverness on the latest run.

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Mild air still being pumped up from the SW for the next week according to GFS and ECM, with the occasional front coming through - Fax chart has this trailing around the far SE s we may get a bit more rain down here than we're used to. 

GFS has big cold plunge for Sun 28th but don't get too excited.

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Not really looked all that much lately but from where I looked a few days back GFS seems to have trended more settled and warmer (down here) in the mid to long term, compared to what it had been showing.

Rubbish for my CET guess but good news in terms of keeping the heating off, assuming GFS has things right

Edit: should have said, looking at the Ens, rather than the op!

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In the extended, GFS op showing mid Atlantic ridge retrogressing towards Greenland allowing a Northerly blast towards last week of the month. The Op is showing one of the coldest solutions of the pack....but it's keen to hold into this idea as it's modelled a Northerly incursion for some time now...

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Always good to see the -8s returning - even it is only briefly on this run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=1

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=322

 

A 2 on the snow row at the end of the month now!

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Next week's cold plunge being shifted a little further east by GFS and to a lesser extent by ECM ... then a little more east ... sounds familiar. Anyway, it's too early to enjoy really cold weather here.

But it's interesting to see the first extensive patch of sub-zero means across Scandinavia and Russia

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

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One thing of note is the lack of rainfall spikes UK wide right out to the start of Nov...

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Nice an chilly looking set up for next weekend

Indeed - high pressure firmly in control for the foreseeable - at least until the next run.

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A whole week and we haven't even filled one page of the MO thread. Not much action around. An early easterly at the end of the 00Z run cooling things down across Europe.

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A fantastic spell of autumn weather in prospect, though. Just about perfect for most of the UK, apart from daytime temps being a couple of degrees too high, perhaps.

A cool, dry and hopefully misty Halloween would be an absolute treat.

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