Did you see Gavin's vid on 1878-79?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrBtnt0fqlk

Mouth watering - imagine if we were to get a repeat.

CONTEXT: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Long-range prediction systems indicate that development of El Niño conditions within the outlook period is more likely than not. In late autumn and early winter, El Niño increases the chances of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being in its positive phase. This would imply a moderate increase in the likelihood of milder-than-average conditions for the UK. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, is entering a westerly phase. It will remain in this state throughout the coming winter. A westerly phase of the QBO also increases the likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO in the latter part of the outlook period. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue to show a pattern of colder-than-average conditions south of 30°N and north of 50°N, with warmer-than-average conditions in a band in between. This pattern extends to depth in the sub-surface ocean so is likely to persist through autumn and into early winter. Like the other global influences, its effect in the outlook period is to increase the chances of a positive phase of the NAO. This would be expected to increase the likelihood of mild conditions in spite of the flow of air potentially crossing the region of below-average sea surface temperatures. For October-November-December, the Met Office long-range prediction system shows an increased likelihood of positive NAO and thereby a greater-than-usual chance of mild conditions. Agreement with long-range predictions from other global centres is mixed, however, with some suggesting greater chances of weather patterns that would bring colder-than-normal conditions to the UK. Nevertheless, the Met Office system’s prediction is more consistent with the expected effects of global driving factors (see above). Consequently, there is an increased likelihood of milder-thanaverage conditions, and a decrease in the likelihood of colder-thanaverage conditions, over the 3-month period (see figure T2). This does not preclude occasional spells of colder weather.

For those who haven't seen the contingency  3 month forecast.Will be interesting to see if an changes appear in next  3 month forecast due end October,

The WMO predicted a weak El Nino back in September:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45471409

How will meteorologists react if we get the El Nino combined with a westerly phase QBO and a consistent negative NAO signal this winter?

In theory, the above combination should not be possible, so it would be most interesting if it did occur.

So with Solar minimum we could still end up having a milder than average winter? - I don't see how it can get wet? we saw wetter spells in August but nothing to write home about - at least for the south the drought continues - and even if we go westerly QBO it will take a while for it to affect on the troposphere would it not? 

Plus there are so many conflicting signals - the NAO looks set to trend negative as well as the AO:

Which causes confusion - surely if we are approach a weak El Nino and turning into a westerly QBO we should be staying positive?? or have i misunderstood?

AO looks very negative which syncs witht he NAO too? Both are going - negative end of month into November. 

Also i'd just like to share Gav's weather video for November:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYCVauXTzpI

It's a fact really ! looking back since that SSW that game us cold and snow end of Feb and into 2nd & 3rd week of March - we never really had a spring - by mid - late April we experiences 25c here in the south of the UK. - No April showers of hail or CB's etc!? Just went straight to summer more or less. Maybe now we are going from summer (was 18 to 19c today, which is remarkably warm for end of October) to winter maxes of +8 or +9c by next weekend in the south!?

Months and months of positivity and only 1-2 days of negativity in the NAO!?

JFF - Amsterdam's weather in the run up to xmas:

Daytime maxes of -7 and nighttime mins of -17c

From mid December - easterly winds start and continue into New Year! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=8&page=2

The forecast presented here is for November and the average of the November-December-January period for the United Kingdom as a whole. The forecast for November will be superseded by the long-range information on the public weather forecast web page (www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/ forecast/ #?tab=regionalForecast), starting from 5th November 2018. This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical prediction systems and expert judgement. SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: For November, and for November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are slightly more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 15% and 20%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). CONTEXT: Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have recently warmed and are now on the threshold of El Niño. Further development is expected, leading to a moderate El Niño event within the outlook period. In late autumn and early winter, El Niño increases the chances of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being in its positive phase. This would imply an increase in the likelihood of milder-than-average conditions for the UK. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, is entering a westerly phase. It will remain in this state throughout the coming winter. A westerly phase of the QBO also increases the likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO in the outlook period. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue to show a pattern of colderthan-average conditions south of 30°N and north of 50°N, with warmer-thanaverage conditions in a band in between. Like the other global influences, its effect in the outlook period is to moderately increase the chances of a positive phase of the NAO. This would be expected to increase the likelihood of milder-than-average conditions, though this would be partially offset by westerly winds blowing across the below-average sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK. For November, the Met Office long-range prediction system, along with other systems from prediction centres around the world, suggests an increased likelihood of high pressure over Europe to the east of the UK. With the UK being on the edge of this feature, there is uncertainty in the degree to which a colder, continental influence will be felt, as against a milder influence due to winds from the Atlantic. This results in a balanced outlook for the chances of above- and below-average temperatures, with above-average temperatures only slightly more likely (see left-hand graph of figure T2). For November-December-January, the Met Office long-range prediction system shows an increase in the likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO and thereby a greater-than-usual chance of mild conditions. Agreement with long-range predictions from other global centres is mixed, however, with a significant minority suggesting greater chances of weather patterns that would bring colder-than-normal conditions to the UK. As a result, while there is an increased likelihood of milder-than-average conditions (see right-hand graph of figure T2), this increase is modest. The chances of colder-thanaverage conditions, and impacts from cold weather, remain reasonably close to normal. Given this overall outlook, the highest chance of any cold weather impacts is towards the end of the outlook period.

The METO office 3 month contingency forecast continues on the mild side with any cold conditions more likely later in the winter.

Weak El Nino winters have the potential to encourage SSW events Jan-Feb, but a wQBO discourages SSWs Dec-Feb as it helps the vortex to 'rebuff' attempted intrusions from troposphere-stratosphere wave breaks and deflect them equatorward (otherwise, they punch in, continue poleward and disrupt the vortex circulation).

This in itself suggests a 'maybe, but probably not' sort of winter with respect to big cold weather outbreaks.

However, there is uncertainty over whether the El Nino might take on a more 'Modoki' type configuration with peak anomalies in the Central Pacific. This is what a lot of long-range models are predicting, and it more or less inverts the Nov-Dec NAO response from that of a classical El Nino; negative would be encouraged instead of positive. It's not an infallible link though - hence 'encouraged' instead of 'forced'.

There's also low solar activity to consider, and most uncertain of all, the role of extreme deficits of Arctic sea ice coverage. At this point I've hit the limit as to what I can freely say but there are others on here who have plenty of insight on these factors .

Yes ..but not always true - the NAO and AO has been positive all summer yet we have been well into an easterly QBO despite a positive NAO and AO!? Refer back to my previous post on 22nd October. The graph shows the NAO has been positive all summer whilst we have been in an easterly QBO. So similarly if we are in a westerly QBO we could still get a negative NAO too remember.

We now have rumblings about a reversal in the polar stratospheric vortex in mid Nov ( very early for such?) which might be hinting at a pretty wintery spell in December for some parts of the N.Hemisphere?

With low solar in play will it steer any impacts from the polar vortex collapse into our neck of the woods?

White Christmas anyone?

Burn the heretic!

Seriously, thanks for your detailed thoughts, and to James for giving us a shred of hope to cling to.

It's the sort of set-up where you'd fancy a punt on a very cold winter, if you're a gambler. Since that hoax, or whatever it was a few years ago, there hasn't been much excitement. Perhaps someone new will pop out of the woodwork in the next few weeks and try to make a name for themselves.

Snow and Ice cover looks lower than it was this time last year how that may or may not impact winter who knows

2017

2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

Link to  3 month preciptation forecast from METO.

HP to the east ,Atlantic LP  to the west.A familiar pressure pattern which usually goes in favour of the  Atlantic

Relative to the overall setup in place, the considerable amplitude MJO phase 1 activity seems well timed for strong impacts on the stratospheric vortex at a time when the westerly QBO has yet to work its way down below the mid-levels of the stratosphere. It sure does raise some interesting possibilities!

Yesterday the NAO and AO were both coming up in negative territory, i am keen to know why they both flipped to quite positive territory over night? 

God shuffled his feet?

Meteorological Winter is in 3.5 weeks time and no one is talking about it!? Surprise how quiet people are? Is everyone feeling ok? Where is Gooner these days!?

If you have been following other threads on this forum such as the MO thread and read my last post on this year's autumn general chat thread, it is easy to see why it's so quite here.

I think the big problem we have just now is the fact that the waters in the NE Pacific Ocean are so much warmer than average just now. Every time this happens, we tend to also end up with high pressure over that NW quarter of North America. That sends cold Arctic air down from Canada into the eastern seaboard of the USA and when that spills out into the Atlantic Ocean, the resulting temperature contrast there tend to fuel the jet stream quite a lot and power up big storm systems.

Without actually mentioning those warm SSTs which I have described above, Gavin P. did go into the results of that quite nicely in today's main video where he stated that it is possible to counteract that if we have a negative NAO with high pressure somewhere around Greenland and/or to the north of here. If that happens, those low pressure systems are then forced onto a much more southerly track which allows the cold air to reach us here in the UK as well. Without that northern blocking in place though, there is nothing to stop those low pressure systems from heading straight towards us and thus producing a very mild, wet and stormy winter such as what we had in the winters of 201//14 and 2015/16.

At the moment, we have a positive NAO and I fear that what I have just described in the last paragraph is starting to happen again, especially as the models are pointing towards the eastern seaboard of America becoming a lot colder, probably as a result of those warm SSTs in the NE Pacific. Because of that, I fear that we have probably already had our winter with that coming in the form of that cold snap which we had at the end of October. As far as this forum is concerned, people are usually only going to be interested if there is the chance that we might get a cold winter and at the moment, I am struggling to see where that is going to come from.