ECM taking the slow route to cold, I think the GFS Op is unlikely at the moment 

As we know the models always struggle with HP scenario's we will see some more stonking runs as well as indifferent ones over the coming days.

The one good thing is if this doesn't deliver there is Winter to come, so time on our side.

One definite = Temps on the way down

the ECM isn't a bad run it looks like the high is heading to the Arctic by day 10 

Agreed. Been here - done that. The EC has hopefully tempered expectations after the astonishing GFS OP. Some ‘seasonably’ cold weather next week and then we’ll see.

I like this evening's ecm run. Should bring some very crispy feeling, seasonal type weather up from the Continent. A interesting feature also is a small Continental sourced trough heading up towards your direction at around day 8. A very rare occurrence at the best of times if this happened, keeping in mind that the chance of a chart at day 8 actually verifying is equally as rare. 

The ECM 12z op and mean isn't far away tonight on the 850's

12z                                                                     00z

Pressure wise it's also much closer than this morning the op is still a bit lower than the mean but the gap is nothing like the 00z

At it's lowest this morning it was 1005mb now it's 1015mb

12z                                                                     00z

12z GEFS.

The op was a cold outlier (just) but support for a cold spell is now high.

Snow row = 17.

The theme still very much the same , a plunge from the North on the way ?

Delayed compared to the 12z but the 18z still delivers , ends a good day of model watching 

Control is also of interest 

I'd be quite happy with this outcome.

A slightly meh GFS Op but GEFS look solid snow rows up to 22!

Nice ECM this morning looks stunning at day 10.

The OP starts to trundle off on its own around 26th , strong clustering away from that . Could be a trend setter though, lets hope not . ECM on the other hand looks well this morning 

Or 128 depending on where you choose as a location for your cumulative total https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=25 

Nice though all the charts are to look at imo we'll need to get really lucky for this to be anything other than a chilly, raw and, for some in the East, damp affair.

If the pattern persists and we can tap in to some decent levels of cold, -10 850's, then we'll hopefully be in business. Before then best case scenario would be crisp sunny weather, although I imagine that'll depend on where in the country you are and whether the feed is east or north of east or coming in from the south east. -5 850's coming over the north sea screams low level clag and cold drizzle to me for some on the coast

The ECM 240 chart shows the potential for the pattern to stick around and give us a chance of getting some of that cold pool our way, but it's deep FI and lots have to go right for that to happen and for the cold to come our way. 

Still, for cold weather fans it's an encouraging set up

Seems like a good summary to me Dave.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we keep getting one or two stellar op runs thrown in just to tease us. It may not end up spectacular but the charts are interesting for the stage of the year.

I agree. GFS keeps a ridge running SE to the Balkans, with the UK getting a chilly SE feed with occasional leaks fro the cold pool further east. To get really cold weather we need low pressure into central Europe so we get an easterly direct from the Baltic

UKMO 850's at t144 not keen at all on the colder air

I would say the UKMO would get there in the end, all main models have a similar trend.