I don't think you could see the 6z verifying but it is another run that shows the possibility for some genuine early season cold and that the trend for HLB is firming up. Certainly some excitement in here over the next 3 or 4 days

Why not? We had considerably more severe cold and heavy snow in the last few days of November only 8 years ago. -18C in Wales on November 28 2010, IIRC.

The 06z mean remains fairly steady around or slightly above -5

Although an easterly wind will bring colder air to the UK next week, it's important to remember that the North Sea is still relatively warm at around 7-13C.

This means that air travelling over it from mainland Europe will be warmed, moderating the cold somewhat. (image: @KNMI) pic.twitter.com/Cgcfe299IQ

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) November 15, 2018

This reminds me of one of our greatest snowstorms: 25 Nov 2005. That one had the lot: hundreds of motorists stranded overnight, thousands of children trapped in schools, RAF airlifts ... But because it was centred on the West Country, and Cornwall in particular, it's been virtually scrubbed from the memory. Nov 2005 was an Arctic maritime airmass, which I presume is also the case in the 6z GFS chart above.

if this cold spell is going to be something special im sure MR BRIAN will call it like he did back in 2009/10. terry scholey did mention the word RETROGRADE for this month which can be read here https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html 

these charts are look good hopefully for once we might see a good winter evan so all the summer people got a outstanding summer think its our turn for the coldies

I remember this. Took 6 hours to get from Bodmin to St Austell.

Andrew

Par

ICON 12z sends the high SE wards similar to ECM which cuts off the flow to the coldest air                                        

Agree- it would be nice to sing in the cool-down with a new thread. Chances?

12z ens

Certainly clear signs in the ensemble data set from the 12z GEFS albeit a bit more marked in the north

Aberdeen

ECM suggesting the first pulse of cold air could be just an appetiser. Check out that cold pooling at T240!

That low at the end of tonight's ECM in the Atlantic develops rapidly with some chilly air still in place certainly at first you have to wonder if it would produce some snow on its leading edge

Nothing to grumble about, the same theme continues , as I said a couple of days ago, HP to the East just isn't our norm and the models really struggle with positioning .

It normally takes a couple of bites at the cherry.  The first waft Tuesday - Thursday will feel much colder but it wont be quite cold enough, but the period 28/29th onwards could be quite something if we hit the synoptic jackpot. My hunch is though,  it will end up anticyclonic but cold at the start of December.

Purely for entertainment and all that but before the 18z wipes them away there's some thoroughly entertaining members in the 12z ens set.

P15 at the end looks like it'd bury parts of the SW of the country, P5 looks fun too.

(and yes there's also a clutch of milder members too).

Very much a low percentage option at present but there's clearly a chance that the initial cool down phase serves to put Europe in to the freezer and if/when the pattern re-loads means we tap in to some decent cold air.

The 12z ens generally are still very blocked, just as you'd expect a fair variance in positioning of the block as to whether we're on the cold or mild side and whether the block is close enough to the UK to stop the Atlantic from affecting us or serves to channel LPs over or near us.

I wonder if/when we'll get an ens collapse to something more zonal

Edit - hardly seems right we've not heard this silly season that once zonality sets in you can pretty much write off the next 6-8 weeks etc. I kind of miss that