ECM 00Z certainly puts Russia into the freezer by the end of the run, but the spoiler ridge down into the Balkans prevents it from heading our way. If the floodgates did open then we'd know about it, though!

GFS 6Z is unbelievably good for coldies. But we want to see ECM singing from the same hymn sheet before banking it.

But this is mad:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

Looks rather December 2010-esque to me!

not banking just enjoying - great to see these charts even if they don’t happen. Makes it more enjoyable even if gone on next run- this one is cold, snowy and potentially pattern getting set

That looks like February 1895.

GFS 06z ensemble mean for Day 8:

The spreads suggest good agreement on a high pressure cell around Iceland/Greenland but a large uncertainty NNW of Norway towards Greenland.

That would kick start the ski season in parts of the Alps. A good old Genoa Low!!   

Good for us too. Everything always looks more solid when there's low pressure in the Med area to support the blocking.

And thank goodness we're getting these synoptics now rather than in February, when they'd just be greeted with posts of 'drip drip' and 'seen it all before/sun's getting too strong'.

One thing to keep in mind is the lack of sea ice over the Kara at the moment. Because of this the GFS is probably underestimating the uppers by a few degrees. To clarify, by the time those north easterlies arrive (or if they arrive) they will probably be slightly colder than implied

The ECM weeklies which updated at the beginning of the week show the cold air hanging around certainly for a couple of weeks

Signals naturally weeker by week 4 but maybe a bit closer to average

Precipitation looks to be below average for 2 and 3 by week 4 it may become a bit wetter in the far west IF lower pressure gets closer by still drier than average for the majority

ICON 12z following ECM 00z and UKMO 00z extended by going SE'ly at t168

Southerly tracking lows is encouraging; just got to hope that HLB to our NW/N is stable enough to be a recurring theme over the next couple of months 

Just putting this out there, given silly stories in newspapers and hyped chatter on Twitter about next week's cold weather.

Left image: next week's cold.
Right image: 'beast from the east' cold last February.

Clearly, next week's cold is absolutely nowhere near. That is all. pic.twitter.com/J2ExdOLWaL

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) November 16, 2018

GFS going a similar way to the beeb last night with low pressure to our west turning things less cold. If correct it was a good call from them.

GFS proving plenty can conspire against the UK to get cold can it find a way from here 252h? 

This is one hell of a change in 6hrs

12z

06z

No it can't , I would say its 50/50 at the moment whether the UK sees a significant cold spell at the end of the month.  let's see what the ECM brings its 240h mean this morning looked very good so still hope.

Yes I saw that we went from a raw easterly with -8 uppers to a mild South westerly with +8 uppers....

🤔

Is this cold spell ending before it's even started or is it me? Only Op run on 25th...that would be one heck of a downgrade of the 12z run verifies.

Yes ..I think they want to break the block down quicker on the 12z run.  But at least any milder weather will be short lived and plus one has to remember it's November only so ...it's not be all end all. We still have winter. My guess is that it may turn less cold early December before  becoming blocked again. The Nao and AO are both negative too so I can't see any return to zonality.

Greetings from Budapest 7 days with no rain or drizzle.etc daytime temps of 16 to 17c. Crazy. All change app  though!