theweatheroutlook

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Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 06:17:04
Nice start to the day with GFS.

Also, does anyone know why Jiries has stopped posting. I know he moved recently, but he would be excited about now.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
BJBlake
17 January 2019 06:27:08

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=96&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0


Stunning FI by the hitherto reluctant GFS, and even the build-up isn't bad! What a contrast to yesterday's 00z, it's chalk vs cheese - and not unsupported. Dust down those sledges!

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Brian Gaze
17 January 2019 06:31:40

Looks like the coldest GEFS update of the winter to date.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
17 January 2019 06:37:10
Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?
New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 06:38:44

ECM stunning upto day 7 this morning.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
17 January 2019 06:38:44

Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Certainly a better start to the day than is the usually the case for coldies, a belting ECM rolling out.


 

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roadrunnerajn
17 January 2019 06:40:15

Well, finally the 0z runs have joined the party. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now, starting in the next few days and if GFS is to be believed this morning, intensifying as time goes on. 1947 anyone?

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Well it did start on the 17th January so that part is right.....

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
White Meadows
17 January 2019 06:41:03

Yes, hopefully the start of at least rough cross model alignment today.
Cracking gfs and ECM is delivering a beauty as we speak.

Retron
17 January 2019 06:42:37

. Looks odds on for a wintry spell now,

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Famous last words. Compared to yesterday it looks good, but I'll be much more interested if we can keep this going for another 24 hours. If it's still looking good this time tomorrow, with no wobbles in the mean time, then I'll be getting drawn in!


(The SSW is still ongoing, of course, which will continue to mess up the models a bit. Last night's ECM showed it ending on the 22nd, followed by the briefest of dips negative again on the 25th. The reversal still isn't showing any great signs of downwelling to say the 100hPa level, but it's worth mentioning that at 100 and 150 the zonal winds are much weaker than normal (which should mean weaker and/or displaced jet streams a bit further down).


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 06:43:18

Stunning 192h from the ECM 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
17 January 2019 06:44:22


ECM stunning upto day 7 this morning.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Plus a quite impressive Day 8


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Karl Guille
17 January 2019 06:46:09

Stunning ECM with everything further west at T192.  -8 850hPA widely across the UK and significant cold pool to our east!


 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 06:51:30

-12c 850s into the east by 216h Lovely stuff 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
17 January 2019 07:02:56
Dare we say the beginnings creeping into the reliable timeframe soon if not already?

On another note, the Alps will get another astonishing pasting next week.
nsrobins
17 January 2019 07:05:22
We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.
That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.
Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
beanoir
17 January 2019 07:10:35

Dare we say the beginnings creeping into the reliable timeframe soon if not already?

On another note, the Alps will get another astonishing pasting next week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


No, we’d be kidding ourselves and setting up for disappointment if we said that! 


Patience wink

Langford, Bedfordshire
doctormog
17 January 2019 07:16:11

Some encouraging signs again this morning with colder and less cold interludes and some interest down the line to keep an eye on.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
17 January 2019 07:20:22

Some encouraging signs again this morning with colder and less colder interludes and some interest down the line to keep an eye on.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Very understated this morning, lots of potential today and blocking certainly looks favourite.

Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 07:25:25

GEM , ICON and Para all poor though this morning so not there yet.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
17 January 2019 07:28:54

Anyone who knows anything about UK cold snaps/spells knows that t120 is aroundabout the mark you need to get to, though that can shrink down to t96 in some circumstances, so, I would suggest that the events of the middle to the end of next week, we will need to wait for, possibly until the weekend before being confident of.  The models have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and providing that "Bullseye" moment.  Nevertheless, encouraging runs this morning, with the ECM posing coquetishly as the "model of the day".

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gandalf The White
17 January 2019 07:29:35

We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.


That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.
Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


All eyes on the handling of the cyclogenesis off the Eastern Seaboard and subsequent development and track of the LP.  ECM takes it on a more northerly track and induces WAA to inflate the mid-Atlantic high; ICON brings the LP on a more NE track and inevitably produces a flatter pattern.


It remains a delicately poised evolution and the effects of the SSW being in the mix aren’t going to help.


But the options do seem to be moving in favour of a choice of cold or very cold weather. As always wind direction will dictate where it’s coldest and wettest/snowiest.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
17 January 2019 07:29:55


GEM , ICON and Para all poor though this morning so not there yet.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


ICON covered itself with ignominy yesterday. Would like to see GEM and Para coming on board though.


The other point to consider, when not looking IMBY, is that Austria and Alps look set for a record setting year.

New world order coming.
Rob K
17 January 2019 07:36:03
GFSP is one of the stragglers on the ensemble that takes the low northeast. However even that goes on to produce plenty of interest later in the run. The Met Office idea of colder and less cold spells in a generally cold period looks to be gaining ground this morning.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
17 January 2019 07:40:19


 


 


Very understated this morning, lots of potential today and blocking certainly looks favourite.


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Not at all. The balance has tipped or sems to be tipping in favour of a colder scenario but as the changes in the last 24 hours have shown things can wobble around. There is no consensus on details and some compromise options (dull, grey and cool) are still realistic possibilies as are other flips.


Overall it is good/heading the right way if you want cold, but for this morning at least I will keep my champagne n the garden snow. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
SJV
17 January 2019 07:46:03

 


We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.
That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.
Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


very true! Not been following the ICON too much over the past few days but hasn’t it been a consistent spoiler of this pattern? 


Not wanting to discount it but hoping it’ll come round soon.


EC is a dreamland this morning!

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