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JACKO4EVER
17 January 2019 15:43:22


 


 


Im hoping with a bit of time us NW'ers might get a bit of blue.  Its been over 20 yrs since i last saw snow of 6"or more fall in my neck of the woods.


 


Will this be our year?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 I was in Manchester for some reason as a 15 or 16 year old in the mid 80’s and saw a huge fall of snow just outside on the hills where we were staying- it made it very difficult travelling back home. 


Anyway eyes down...... nervous excitement begins 

Rob K
17 January 2019 15:48:46

ICON won't be getting much of a look from coldies north westerlies eventually shifting to more of a westerly

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


ARPEGE 12Z is also not buying the diving low and ends up flat as a pancake. A worry as that is a high-res model, is it not?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
17 January 2019 15:51:22


 


ARPEGE 12Z is also not buying the diving low and ends up flat as a pancake. A worry as that is a high-res model, is it not?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


So we can only hope there's no cross model agreement tonight then

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 15:53:03


 


ARPEGE 12Z is also not buying the diving low and ends up flat as a pancake. A worry as that is a high-res model, is it not?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I cant see it yet on Wetter. This is concerning I agree, though I wonder what the upstream resolution is?

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
17 January 2019 15:55:10


 


 


Rob, my analysis from runs which delivered and those that did not, was actually the opposite.


On those runs where the storm deepened more, it tended to slow and curve more northward, missing the jet stream like a slower, heavier surfer misses the wave and the low then dawdled near or over Greenland allowing our Atlantic high to ridge strongly northward, and keep amore mid Atlantic position allowing the previous low to drop into Europe and ...you know the rest.


ICON is persisting in keeping it a flatter, shallower, faster feature, for example.


The US forecasters are really struggling with the precipitation type forecasts because the track is so difficult. Fact is, its not even emerged over the Sierra Nevada yet were its dropping several feet of snow. 


Jeff 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Jeff 


 


Thanks, informative post 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
17 January 2019 15:58:05


 


I cant see it yet on Wetter. This is concerning I agree, though I wonder what the upstream resolution is?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It's on Meteociel. It only goes out to 114 hours, which is just into the range of the low disrupting (or not). 


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
17 January 2019 15:58:16

12z arpege what cold? It says


arpegeeur-0-96.thumb.png.d0d573bd80da40c926760d683890c95f.pngarpegeeur-0-114.thumb.png.5d0bf56cdf20a059238a6875f4ecdbb7.png


arpegeeur-1-96.thumb.png.7f71addbe5c2aa839d5099a152afbf20.pngarpegeeur-1-114.thumb.png.6aeec920ea1d0e06501fd8df01445385.png

Rob K
17 January 2019 15:59:49


12z arpege what cold? It says


arpegeeur-0-96.thumb.png.d0d573bd80da40c926760d683890c95f.pngarpegeeur-0-114.thumb.png.5d0bf56cdf20a059238a6875f4ecdbb7.png


arpegeeur-1-96.thumb.png.7f71addbe5c2aa839d5099a152afbf20.pngarpegeeur-1-114.thumb.png.6aeec920ea1d0e06501fd8df01445385.png


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Shows what fine margins there are, as the depth and position of that low look almost the same as the GFS at 90hrs.


The difference seems to be in the build of heights behind the low, with GFS building pressure faster into Greenland after the low exits.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
17 January 2019 16:04:24

UKMO not on board at t144 more patience required


 


1994344587_Ohdear.thumb.gif.c6d68f1bf8c2f16fcac05bd12d10a4d7.gif

Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 16:06:19

GFS has things slightly further east compared to 06z

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 16:07:50


 


It's on Meteociel. It only goes out to 114 hours, which is just into the range of the low disrupting (or not). 


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Thanks Rob

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 16:12:55

GFS has a slower evolution

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 16:13:59

GFS still very good by 120h.


Ukmo not as good but not bad by any means.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Russwirral
17 January 2019 16:15:45
GFS taking a different path. The Front next Tuesday makes it through the UK does not stall. This could have large Implications overall later on.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
17 January 2019 16:17:00
Decent slack easterly by 150hrs on GFS.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
17 January 2019 16:17:12
It’s just not playing ball, these next runs in the 24 to 48 hour period are crucial. Could be another bitter pill to swallow ?
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2019 16:17:33


UKMO not on board at t144 more patience required


 


1994344587_Ohdear.thumb.gif.c6d68f1bf8c2f16fcac05bd12d10a4d7.gif


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


Looks like the low will slide again from the NW,  not a bad chart imho 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
17 January 2019 16:17:45

Cant complain too much about this afternoons runs...…………….so far 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


warrenb
17 January 2019 16:19:18
Runs are good so far, just dropping the trough about 100 miles further east. On a global scale that is nothing.
Tonbridge 45m 
Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 16:22:21

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_2.png


Block supported in the Med, shortwave near Iceland. Where is this going? Hoping will pump up the high. Freezing 850s primed in the east

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
SJV
17 January 2019 16:26:44

It’s just not playing ball, these next runs in the 24 to 48 hour period are crucial. Could be another bitter pill to swallow ?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Not sure what your bitter pill is referring to. This afternoons runs are just typical model variability and show nothing overly concerning, just subtle differences in a cold pattern.

Heavy Weather 2013
17 January 2019 16:27:45

Azores again being a right pain. Still is a good run overall; and building blocks are there. None the less, its not as good as 06z, whoch was going to be hard to beat.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
ballamar
17 January 2019 16:27:59

Can the Icelandic low slide over UK


 


not looking likely ! Lots of blocking in right place who knows where it goes

kmoorman
17 January 2019 16:30:26


Azores again being a right pain. Still is a good run overall; and building blocks are there. None the less, its not as good as 06z, whoch was going to be hard to beat.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Yep, this time we get a transient slack easterly and then the high gets squeezed out over us. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
kmoorman
17 January 2019 16:31:36


Can the Icelandic low slide over UK


 


not looking likely ! Lots of blocking in right place who knows where it goes


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


If it's the cold you're talking about, I bet it's Athens.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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