That is a wonderful run... 

Well that is a classic pub run. I'm fully expecting it to verify as my daughter is off for a well deserved break in Malta then, flying from Stansted. eeek!

One of these days one of these runs is actually going to happen . 

It's a nutty old pub run alright.

Just as the Scandi HP looks to be giving up we get some nicely time trough disruption over the UK with frontal snow for some (probably a lot for the SW) whilst the cold air hangs on.

Under lighter winds although the coldest upper air has departed byT324 (other than a small splodge of -10s) I dare say it'd be absolutely freezing at the surface with some low minima over the snow fields.

In some ways whilst nice to look at these kind of runs in the Op are a bit annoying.Unless we get really lucky it's like it's showing us what we could have won

Well whats the confidence now 65%?

Whats the chances eh? Apart from the epic ECM run- but having the 2 best GFS runs ever in the space of 12 hours-

We now have ECM + MEAN + Latest GFS going for the beast...?

If they allign at 120 then the rest will follow pretty much all the way to 192...

We can but dream 

That is so true. We get to see all off the alternate realities 

You watch that, I'm covering the ensemble. Let's compare notes later.

March 2018 was more severe than this GFS run. 

Early indications are that the Control Run is going very well....😉

850’s can be higher at this time of year for lower maximum temperatures I would bet this spell would be colder

A fairly decent cluster going with the Op on the GEFS 18z IMBY!

go on commit it’s happening- there is no chance of it going wrong now 😂

OK, it's deepest FI but that deep low runs into the Channel and produces a heck of a blizzard for the south.

Well only 48 hrs before like it did once before in bygone days

Outliers of course, as expected but more than enough in the ensembles and elsewhere to be optimistic.

Last night's ECM strat forecast now has the SSW ending tomorrow, with a brief reprise for two days on the 20th and 21st. It then increases the zonal wind more quickly than on previous runs - still not earthshattering amounts (0, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6) but way more than previous efforts (which were around 0 to 1 throughout).

In theory this should give a bit more of a push downwards of the negative zonal winds - whether that happens remains to be seen!

In my experience it is folly to dismiss a Met O 144 that does not "come on board" with the coldest and most favoured scenario.  I take the Met O 144 very seriously when it is at odds with other models.  We all await the ECM with interest but  more runs are needed, and I would suggest that the 12zs will not settle this either. For me, this will be sorted out either way at the weekend.  The GEM coming on board is a small bonus, but a shaky ECM will set the fox free in the chicken coup.