Quite so. Hence, looking at mean outcomes is less useful than on a good day.

Worth looking at any persistent clustering, however.

The ECM ENS SD shows the op was out of range on 26/01, however the general picture is a less cold one. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

yes, the mean is fairly pointless. The ensembles will likely collapse one way or the other within the next day or two. We just don’t know which way yet. Until we see Exeter guidance change then I’m not going to worry. 

No one has written anything off this morning but the easterly looks unlikely that's all. Snow falling here as i type LOL.

Absolutely Darren.

I think the opposite to WI - this thread has been extremely measured over the past week. 

Have a link to the individual runs or just the means?

Using the mean by itself always reminds me of the joke about the biologist, physicist and statistician going hunting 

They are hiding together in the bushes and they see a deer 100 feet ahead of them. The physicist makes some calculations, aims and fires at the deer. His shot ends up 5ft to the left of the deer. The biologist analyzes the deer's movement, aims and fires. His shot ends up 5ft to the right of the deer. The statistician drops his rifle and happily shouts, "WE GOT IT!!"

The blended mean is fine but possibly not if it shows a very wide spread (see above) or opposing scenarios. That’s not just for the ECM but any situation.

Great one. The most on-topic off-topic post of the year.

I'm not a betting man but am pretty confident the ECM ENS contain an increased number of runs which bring the Atlantic through next week.

I've not seen postage stamps but the mean in the mid week period has risen significantly above -5c although the OP was top of the ENS for that period.

ECM mean 144:

I’m Increasingly thinking we’ll have to wait til later next month, by which time other factors can impact - solar warmth etc 😞

I think we should all wait for the 12zs before having the wake  - I'm sure David Porter will be on soon with some optimism  - but for me, this one has gone.

Whenever it starts to go Pete Tong the river in Egypt always shows its head.

Premature patronising claptrap is a funny name for a river. 

It is a trend in one, albeit usually reliable model, and highlights the uncertainty nicely. The outcome even at day 6 is unknown and maybe for a while.

It's a bit of fun calm dowm

The much fancied  0z GFS 144 (parallel) hasn't been shown yet this morning.

Here it is in its full glory.

It sits very close to the ECM and GEFS mean at that stage.

Personally, Ive always been a fan of the CMA.  There have been occasions when it has been correct at a distance when other models have faltered.  Here is the CMA take on day 8, deep FI:

As I have maintained consistently for the past week or so, there is great uncertainty and the situation is in the balance. 50/50 west or east flow IMHO.  More runs are needed.

So funny😂 I was so close to this, but always check UKMO first (which is very good) and then ECM!!

Martin

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:

The latter half of next week looks to stay cold or very cold, with frosts likely most nights. There may be cloud, rain and hill snow perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, but thereafter turning brighter with showers. These will feed in from eastern coasts, but are likely to bring sleet or snow for some. There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. It will stay cold until the end of January with spells of rain, sleet and snow at times. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely, with overnight frost.

I think we could see this change significantly at some point today..

The para is quite an interesting run - definitely a case of "if at first you don't succeed..."

Lots of interesting and justifiable discussion about the ECM this morning.

Meanwhile the 00z GFS Op seems to show a classic mild vs cold battle from next weekend, with the cold winning out. It's one of the coldest options in the ENS but it has the 528 DAM line running north-south along the UK for quite some time. Just one of the infinite possibilities of course but, to my less experienced eye, if that kind of scenario actually happened it could give a lot of snowfall in some areas? 

I love the prospect of cold weather but I'm actually quite enjoying all this uncertainty