And from certain people, too much "nah, it's never going to happen" - the old stopped-clock rule, in that eventually they'll get it right and will crow about it. Time-machines aside, the 0z ECM is obviously 100% correct and there's no point in looking at anything else.

Or, of course, you can take the rational, logical view, and realise it's just one of an envelope of solutions which has been evident on the ensembles throughout the chase for cold. I would wager the EPS will still paint an overall cold picture when it comes out later this morning.

And, reinforcing this, you can see the GEFS are still a cold set this morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3

Not sure if your 50% is evidenced or arbitrary, but I would agree the chances are reduced. But cold is still the theme- the GEFS mean hugs the -5 850 mark from about Tuesday to forever. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=598

To me, the basic building blocks- the general pattern in response to those more macroscale indicators like the jet positioning- are pretty well in place. We realise that the detailed synoptics can be wildly different beyond (and sometimes before) 120. Darren Bett's Beeb 7 day forecast last night still generated and dropped a low over the N Sea, enabling an easterly/ NEly to develop. Don't write this one off just yet.

I hope this is not aimed at me as up until yesterday's wobble I genuinely believed we were on for a very good easterly. But is the ecm the best model in the world going to be wrong at 96h? 

Only 96 hours will tell.

Might tell if it's the best model in the World as well.

Edit: Actually, at 96 the ECM still supports the N Sea low developing and troughing southwards. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/96_mslp850.png?cb=8

It's not really until the following frame it goes off.

It's a random guess from another poster, and there are many, who can't help but exaggerate one dodgy run and treat it with god-like reverence because it shows what we don't want to see. Ahhhhh let's panic! 

ECM isn't the best, no getting around that but it is so different again that confidence cannot be high. The rest of the output looks fine and the old adage of 'more runs needed' holds true given we still haven't got cross-model agreement on how our cold will present itself next week and beyond.

The ridiculous emotive responses to one chart or one run are not needed, IMO 

MetO at 120 seems to fall in line. The T+96 low sinks:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/met/3_mslp.png?cb=941

 GFSP starts similarly, but the N Sea low is edged away as energy seems to sink far into S Europe. That one looks odd to me- why wouldn't the trough from the N Sea low coax it southwards?

That is worth highlighting. It shows the low pressure can still sink and be followed by a less cold scenario. As is always the case nothing is "locked in" and there is virtually always a blended outcome to be found.

My take this morning is cold is still favoured - possibly 70:30 - but the chance of a milder outlook has increased in the last 24 hours. One suspects there is the potential for some very disjointed reports in the media because much of the stuff will have been keyed in yesterday. 

Well you could, because we've been here before. Not quite the Dec 2012 let down as that came closer in timeframe than this has.

Relying on the Arctic High has always been tenuous and has done for many an FI cold spell. Once the ECM had done that last night  I think the experienced among us knew the writing was on the wall. There are lots of similar solutions in the GEFS.

I would expect UKMO to follow ECM on the 12z runs and we will see whether the Exeter rewrite comes today or tomorrow. 

 I wouldn't write it off yet! However, if it is going Pete Tong the timing is utterly priceless given what was being communicated yesterday.  

The GEFS ensemble mean at 144 hour highlights poor blightys plight very well.

Azores high is King.

Well this mornings output has left us non the wiser about what happens mid week! Fascinating stuff, surely only a matter of a few runs before we get some consensus? 

Yes, that's really a blend between better and (some) much worse solutions.

Maybe the ECM is onto something, but I'm not sure I fully trust it. There is a lot of 'spread' regarding the longer term outlooks, and this morning's evolution is just one of many within this. Might not be as cold as previous runs, but a less cold outlook relative to recent runs doesn't equate to any great mildness either. 

You're entitled to your opinion, as I am mine. Go back and read through the thread and you will see the evidence of wilful blindness to unfavourable output. I think that model watchers who have dared to dissent from the popular narrative have largely been dismissed as being over emotional. Oh the irony.

But the mean is not presented as a possible outcome- that high's position is a just a jiggle and shake from all the outcomes. If it were not, the easterly developing over the N Sea would need to be given more attention, supported as it is by the mean of HP over Scandi (more of a feature at 1030 than the tiddler at 1020) and the LP over S Europe. The trouble with any mean when there is wide deviation from it, is that its own meaning is reduced.

ecm is famed for its phantom easterlies, who knows maybe its cannot correctly model them at all when they really are due.

I understand the ECM det. is well supported on the EPS at day 5. 

Yes it has done some phantom easterlies, but not at day 5. I'd very much doubt that it is wrong at T120 when supported by it's ensembles and with similar options shown in many of the GEFS.

The London 0z actually shows the limit of FI very well. (At around 144 hours).

Certainly for the south based on this we can look forward to a chilly week with some rain and back edge sleet Tuesday, some cold frosty nights and a gradual increase in uppers with signs of a more westerly influence by Friday as the coldest uppers seep away into the continent.

Thereafter its back to the drawing board... a beast from the east ? Possible. An atlantic driven period ? Also possible.

A look at the calendar by that stage will show late January...we are yet to even see a flake of snow this winter down here ! 

I shall quietly draw my own conclusions. 

Wow the ECM Means really are woeful 

Anyone writing off cold weather this morning, please can they PM me some Euromillions numbers? As far as I can see nobody can have a clue what will happen next week.

As early as 6 days out the GEFS has a spread of 2m max temps from 0.5C to 8.8C. Good luck picking a winner from that lot.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Given that the low hasn’t even exited the US yet, nobody can predict what it will do. In Jurassic Park terms, Jeff Goldblum hasn’t even dripped the water onto Laura whatserface’s hand yet. 

Not a big fan of the means but ECM suggests most solutions are bringing the Atlantic through.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&charthour=168&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Many seem worse than the OP and are full on zonal by next Saturday.