Another helpful post to add to the tally😀

After all these years of model watching (and yes I did check ECM before my cup of tea which I haven’t made yet), I’m still brought back down to earth with a bump (although I should know better) when a model “flips”. If only I could just look up to 96/120 I might not still be thirsty now.

To my mind, if the 00z op was so different as to make me check all the other models and read all through this thread before my cup of tea then it must have been “out of kilter” somewhat so I’m expecting a flip back later.

unless it changes again - don’t give up yet

I wouldn’t fancy having to draw the 120hr fax chart today. Well I suppose if in doubt just copy the UKMO chart...

I have said this before but it almost seems like the models need to be rewritten to take into account the particular climate of the UK. Often it seems that the equations and the background signals mean that it should turn cold but the UK climate says “nope” and the models only pick up on it at short notice!

Have to agree S.C. 

Surely the 'modelled response' remains a constant so will always drag the model back in that direction later in the run?

I have a feeling that we will remain at the edge of any 'action' further down the line no matter what FI is keen to promise us?

Very true and shows how hard it is to get cold weather in this country. Fortunately I haven't been following this spell so Im not disappointed like I used to be

The models have continuously delay any real cold into the far reaches of the maps since before Christmas, but I think they will verify at some stage. Just a question of when, not if. 

Could go either way

For sense, you only have to look back to the roller coaster ride that became the beast from the east. I remember at one point  - about 5 days out it was 2 out of 3 big cheese models saying Pete Tong was coming to dinner. 

The he key difference at 120 hours (and plenty can go wrong or right at 96h), is the ECMF model not giving crepe dance to heights slipping off the Greenland plateau and building insitu over Svalbard to the extent it ridges south and cuts off the cyclogenesis to the cape nose of Greenland. If it is right, then the best outcome is another shorter term northerly and Arctic air less modified. If it is wrong as now 3 of the more recognised models  as having greater data credibility say, and the high connects to the Azores high then Game On. 

If this did come off it would be a very memorable, history book noting (for weather geeks of which I am 100% one of) in fact, like 47, 63, 79,  and '91  - maybe 2010 too.

Enjoy the ride.

At T96 the energy is once again struggling to sink south across France meaning that the likelihood of drawing colder air in from Europe might be more difficult!!

At a glance I think the 06z GFS op is diverging from the ECM 00z run as early as day 4 and it will be interesting to see how it pans out. In the big picture it may provide a little consolation to cold weather fans but I doubt it will provide much clarity.

By 100 hours out it is in a bit of a chilly no man’s land, which probably highlights the spread and uncertainty at that range.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_105_1.png

What next...?

Train has been derailed again! Can we blame Chris Grayling. Another epic fail for a UK cold snap. A long list

You can see the GFS 6z is desperately trying to give us an easterly at 120h. Gone on boy you can do it.

Here it comes look to Denmark 

A bit of a no-mans land by T120!  No doubt cold at the surface but the much colder air remains to our north east!

I'd say about as helpful as half the posts in this thread.

Just looking at the T72 - T120 progression on the 00zs and ECM is clearly not going with a clean transfer of energy south on its Op run, shoving just enough of it east to kill the HP link and HP build and scupper the easterly.

That's an early part of the run to strongly disagree with the UK/GFS op solutions!

Makes you wonder just why it's suddenly decided to do this - could be the kind of issue only picked up at short range I guess, although at this range you'd expect the other 2 to have latched on to is as well

Not sure I'd take the ECM solution as gospel just yet - deciding because it's not showing cold it must be right is a little daft but clearly with one of the big 3 at odds with the other 2 at short range the outcome is in doubt and you need agreement before being more confident in the milder (but not mild) outcome or the colder one.

If the ECM Op is right I wonder how long we'll need to wait for the next deep cold attempt, in amongst the repeated shots of chilly/cold air coming down from the North West that it shows?

Warm front embedded in a high. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_7.png

The excitement is just too much. 

Never 'trust' any output for more than six days ahead.

I don't think anyone can call a solution on this just yet. When you look at two 6z models this morning that at T+114 show this:

GFS 6z Op:

and this (ICON 6z):

For months it seems