Won't be too long before we know what's going to happen, but could still be Sunday/Monday before there's agreement for mid/late week! I'm already desperate to know haha.

Undeniably, FI is sets around day 4-5 (around 108 hours time): Though the very cold solutions appear to be  in retreat for the mid term (144-240)

Still a good deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless from a personal point of view I think this has the potential to turn into a fiasco. It's worth noting the current update from Exeter (unless it has changed this morning) is suggesting cold or very conditions between now and mid Feb without milder interludes. Anyone who follows my posts elsewhere on the site will know I've been sceptical about the possibility of a prolonged cold spell until the last 36 hours or so when I started buying into it quite heavily.  

GEFS gives x9 NElies in the south at T+144; at 168 this is reduced to 6, and at 198 still 6, but only 2 Ps favour this in all 3 windows (P12 & 13).

It should be noted the ECM ENS despite some support now for the milder interlude midweek are cold, probably the coldest set I've seen for my locale out into February. So the overall theme still fits with this idea of colder weather going forward.

The problem is the bumps in the road only appear at very short distances. 

DISCLAIMER - In no way am I saying things will turn out like 1947! That chart doesn’t look overly mild to me, am I wrong? I also remember going through the archives a few years ago and looking at a lot of charts from 1947, the thing that really struck me was that often the uppers weren’t that cold. With many of the charts from that period, to my untrained eye, I would have said they would produce cold rain IMBY. We all know, however, that wasn’t the case and down here on the north downs it was especially snowy. Could we get snow from some of these charts? Retron really knows his stuff and explained that with low pressure the boundary layer is a lot lower than normal so uppers don’t need to be as cold.......this doesn’t quite seem like the normal cold spell fail we have become accustomed to......

Yeh, could be that these milder interludes simply keep popping up at short notice. Going with all the seemingly very good signals for a colder than average later winter you've got to think eventually the chances are good that we will end up with a proper cold spell...but who really knows! 

Just flicked through the ECM postage stamps. A week out theres still so much variation and then by end of ECM run they are generally very good, with lots of evidence of Greenland blocking by then and southerly tracking lows.

Yes, saw that as well in ECM, the future is cold in my view with Feb being very cold.

Martin

Good grief no, you are one of my faves lol 

thanks very much  !!

It's 12 days away - if the GFS 6z/ECM runs are right we have a zonal +ve NAO pattern coming well before then and good luck if you think that will shift to what is shown on that chart for Jan 31 by then.

Differences or what!? 

GEM MIDDAY on Tuesday snow depth and compare this with the Para:

Para midday Tuesday:

I try always to read and take note of the posts of a handful of contributors here.  You are most certainly in that group, along with Darren, Doc and a handful of others.  

One problem with blocking someone is that it applies to the entire site and not specific forums.

Well Exeter have not adjusted their text as yet, probably waiting for the 12z/0z runs before commiting to a dramatic volte face.

Errrrm, yes they have - see media thread. 

You might get your politics wrong in UIA ( 😉 ) but your posts in here are always spot on.

Thank the stars for posters like you, Doc, Neil, Darren and the other level-headed, knowledgeable regulars.

they have changed the text and continued cold theme overall. Models continue to give us plenty of cold options that match the updated forecast. Very interesting looking into that longer term block at end of the month.

Martin

Ah, but you have said the same thing several times this winter and been proved wrong.

You know that the NAO is a function of the model output. A positive NAO can mean many things and certainly doesn't guarantee zonality, in the same way that a negative NAO doesn't guarantee cold weather.

I know that you'll be right eventually but that doesn't count as measured analysis of the charts. In the meantime good luck with your latest assertion of a return to zonality.

I really doubt there will be any lying snow from the northwesterly for merseyside, so im leaning towards the GEM.

There might be temp lying coats of hail.  But thats it.   Might take a drive into wales to see any snow.. as is usually the case.

They're all mugging us off Phil 

 A lot of posts that creep in at times when models are appearing to flip one way and then back another 24 hours later, belong in a French farce not a sensible discussion......

The overall trend for the next week remains below average with the exception of Shetland where it looks to be marginally above average

Something a bit milder in the north by D7?