Baltic SST hotspot is now only 4c

Plenty of Coastal ice including Denmark

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20101222.pdf

Originally Posted by: four 

The local temperatures are extreme.

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

I can vouch for that! -25C when I left the flat near Hokksund, Norway yesterday.... Aberdeen at -2C actually felt warm in comparison. The river flowing through Drammen is almost frozen solid.

BBC Article on Arctic Sea Ice research today

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wear-12071655

you might find , Ulric, that there is a body of folk who will hide behind the 'sat era' as a shield from the awful truth of just how much ice has gone. The maps from the 30's and 40's that I posted showed a max and min extent nearly twice the size that we have had since the advent of sat images. If we'd used some of the images from the initial space flights (and pieced then together) we'd find that the late 60's had a far bigger extent than that in 78/79. (and these are 'pictures from space' so should satisfy the folk who don't trust ships captains) extending our 'sat observations by a further 10 years and highlighting todays puny extents further?

Some good exploring to be done here.

To start with, here are tantalising glimpses of Arctic ice edge positions around The Fram Strait in August, starting from 1750. These perhaps, also indicate the extent of ice on more than just a regional basis.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02169/ice_edge_positions/browse/aug/

this taken from -

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html

Latest Arctic Sea ice extent shows the 2010 trend line moving clearly into new and lower territory.

With so little ice over th Arctic its surprising that the northrtly outbreaks of the last 5 weeks have been so severe.

Many put the severe Northerly outbreaks of Feb 1969 down to record high sea ice extent but those northerlies were nothing like the last 5 weeks,

Seems odd to me that there is no correlation between se ice extent and the severity of Northerly outbreaks in the UK.

Anyone got a theory....

Andy

I think both events are of a very different nature? Air masses modified by the ice edge and to total evacuation of the central polar air mass spilling over us (for weeks!) make for very different 'experiences' for us on our island,

If you noted the 'dry' nature of our recent cold (and last years) with the 'soggy' wet snow of 69 (proper snowman/snowball snow I remember!!!) you can see the difference?

If we are to slip into a period of early winter cold (for a number of years) then this year will be the 'pattern' we will likely encounter. We have seen Eurasia plagued, over the noughties, with shorter lived 'displacements' of the Polar air and so I fear we can continue to expect such until the poles has 'milded out' to the point that the air masses do not hold the cold that they do today.

Proof will come with the 'normal' (above average temp) summers we have even with the 'biting' winter before. Last year the late winter pattern set up the 'ice Factory' across the Bering straights and this ,'coupled with Northern Europe/NE Usa's cold winters, gave us a late and high extent  Max ice extent.

In Dec last year ice levels were down. This DEC ice levels are down. Will the loss of the solar Min's propensity for H.P. blocking mean zonality for the rest of winter (and storms entering the Basin breaking up the ice?) or are we to expect more northerly outbreaks?

All I can say is that we DO NOT want to go into summer with the lowest recorded ice extent .Take an average of the past 3 years area melt, that 'average summers' gave us, off the final 'max ice' this year and see where it would take us! 

http://www.iceagenow.com/Area_of_thick_arctic_ice_doubled_in_two_years.htm

I wonder when IJIS are back in (and up date) ? Keen to see where levels are entering the 'new year'.

Last year we were low at the end of Dec but lower latitude cold 'plumped up' the figures later on with the 'Bering straight ice factory' taking 'extent very high (and max very late?) I hope we see a repeat? as going into summer on a 'low' will lead to 07's 'low' being mashed even if an 'average' year due to the extent of F.Y. ice (as a percentage of the total?)

Fram cost us much of the central Arctic Ocean 2nd/3rd year ice prior to Chrimbo so we (I?) can expect an early breakup there come early summer with 'thin ,young' ice at the mercy of wind and water.

Ten ships trapped by unusually early thick ice in the Sea of Okhotsk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12099928
I saw a Russian site reporting 2 metres of ice which even thwarted ice breakers.
Probably the BBC 30cm is a mistake as I can't see that would stop ice-capable ships.

edit: Ice breaker struggles through two metre thick ice
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15833955&PageNum=0

Isn't F.Y ice between 2 and 2.5m thick/ Iknow the icesat/Grace mission (02-08) gave us these figures?

If F.Y. ice 'normally' grows to this depth where's the 'story' (apart from how saline/structurally weak such ice is???)?

I thought it 'routine' for icebreakers to manage such ice thickness (designed to run up ,ram over, and use their weight to open a lead???)

Maybe someone more nauticle can advise us here?

NSIDC say's this of F.Y. ice;

http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/words/glossary.pl

EDIT: a look at C.T. makes you wonder where they found the ice????

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.14.html

maybe tempted into areas normally frozen this time of year and got 'bushwhacked by floes' in their wakes??

That was why I asked if we were quoting the same measurements and why I asked the question in my previous post.  I was trying to look at the big picture rather than a handful of stills.  I think my previous post got missed, so here it is again....

It would be interesting to see what the annual totals of sea ice are and how much seasonal variation there is.  If my interpretation of the chart is correct, 2007 was a bad year during Autumn with an all time low, but recovered by winter and into the following year. December 2010 figures are at a new low, whilst April/May 2010 were at a new high.  None of the years shown on that chart have sustained an all time low or all time high.

 Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Latest Arctic Sea ice extent shows the 2010 trend line moving clearly into new and lower territory.

Were it that easy Caz? F.Y. ice is a different 'beastie' to the Paleocrystic ice that use to make up the majority of Arctic sea ice come Sept min.

We should not compare apples and pears but that is what you ask? 08's ice min was 'plumped up 'with the collapse of the Paleocrystic (as Prof Barber 'witnessed in south Beaufort a year later) so any 'recovery' in ice extent was at the cost of our 'durable ice)

Last summer saw the death of the last of the Paleocrystic in the Beaufort sea area.

What you are witnessing is the final transition to a seasonal (like the Antarctic sea ice?) ice pack.

It matters not what extent it makes over the dark of winter if it instantly disappears once the sun rises!!!

It was the 'reflective' nature of the ice (and snow) over summer that moderated our climate.

Over summer now 80% of the incoming 'solar' is absorbed and then re-emitted as infra red (and not 90% reflected straight back into space)

We can see this when sea areas that should have -30c air over them are 0c come mid Oct (as the sea sheds it's heat prior to re-freeze).

We have lost our 'old' ice but you would see if we had a 1m3 block of F.Y. ice and 'old ice ' just how much more durable the old ,compressed ,desalinised ice was compared to F.Y, ice

I must admit to being a tad confused by all of this. Read through this thread and one could conclude that sea ice extent is down, but ice thickness is up, in certain places. Following on from that there is the possibility that anomolous conditions have been occurring in the Arctic.

Following on from that it would not be unreasonable to argue that said anomolous conditions are connected with anomolous conditions recently seen in the UK.

Last month was the coldest December seen in the UK since 1890. 'Experts' on here have told us that said anomolous conditions are nothing more than 'weather'. If so then it is not implausible to argue that this thread is utterly redundant, along with the graphs presented - because the timeline is too short in which to discern a trend. It is all simply down to 'weather'.

Were this to be true there would be a steady stream of WUWT adherents pointing to the band of 5m+  ice plastered along north Greenland/Canadian Archipelago and out into s. Beaufort sea (into back into the Arctic ocean) in the way it historically used to? As it is ,once we get the Cryosat2 data, we will find ice thickness shadowing that measured by the ICESat/Grace mission (02 to 08) of 2m+ ice across ALL ages of ice. Of course with some sea areas anomalously 'low' on any sea ice at all (so any 'mean thickness would show less than this?)

In time the 'weather' becomes 'climate' and enough years of Arctic Amplification generated 'Weather' we will see a new 'climate' for UK/N.Europe as the polar plunges amass (some studies say a 1 in 3 chance every year of copping for a 'serious' blast???)

I repeat, you cannot open a large area to a 30c positive 'anomaly' and not see it drive circulation in 'novel' ways? Barents and Kara have been experiencing that in mid Oct/early Nov since 03' (east Siberian since 05 and Beaufort 'ice free' since last year....only 'central Basin to go'?)

This year saw the central basin shed much of it's 'old ice' with our 'northerly blast' in Nov/Dec (as the buoy data for the north Pole cam plots)  so this summer will see most of that 'new', F.Y. ice across the pole (weak and full of salt) melt out in situ (Could be a very odd start to winter for some in 11/12.......I wonder how 21/12/12 will be .....lol).

I couldn't find a more up to date graph but below is 35 years of ice extent and you can discern a trend from it...

The graph shows Arctic sea ice at its lowest extent in 2008 and I'm led to believe it's diminished further over the following two years.  Or am I?  When we talk about extent, do we mean coverage in sq mtres or do we mean volume?  These are the thnigs I find confusing.

Also, another question.  If we can detect the amount of atmospheric co2 in past years from ice cores, does that mean it was actually locked in the sea ice that's all melting and will the melt add to our CO2 emmisions?

Volume is what matters. Its a better measure of the energy involved.

Absolutely agree. Without a doubt the Arctic ice volume is lower now than it has been for some time.

How do you integrate this or what comparisons does one make with the bigger picture which includes the current/ongoing state of all the worlds oceans and the atmosphere? Remembering of course that in terms of heat holding capacity, the water in the oceans is about 400 times greater than that of the atmosphere.