thank you 

Who are you? 

(Enjoy! )

Lol! Cheers 😁😁 

Haha doc! You'd never forget me 😂😂 might have to finish work early, not fancying travelling home from Newport if the forecast does come off!

Of course I couldn’t forget you. I mean I have tried but my therapist says there’s no chance. 

Seriously though stay safe and enjoy it and I hope it comes off as forecast. 

yup but I'm waaaay to young to have seen that!  😂 To be fair, Tredegar and the Heads of the Valleys area in general do quite well with snow.  The elevation helps no doubt.

pmsl! Bet your therapist needs therapy after seeing you 😘

Fingers crossed.  cheers doc

Don’t think any showers are forecast tonight . :-( 

Convection is weakening now as the low approaches. 

Yup, was talking about earlier in the evening. Shower clumps that seemed to have our name on them all drifted off to the south of us or fizzled out. 

That's it for the foreseeable for here. Pretty meagre pickings.

Gfs 18z beefs up the snow a bit for tomorrow quite widely 10/15 cm I think it’s overcooking it a little.

im not so sure about that, yes, we havent seen any deep cold but there is still enough time to have some more snow and cold weather

output can change in 6 hours you know that.

I kinda feel sorry for the north midlands who seem to be getting thoroughly screwed over by this.

Further up north I'm expecting the lake effect to create some light but persistant snow for much of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and NE England. And although its not likely to be heavy on lower ground it will be light, dry and fluffy.

To back up what I said about N England. WRF is showing this.

I've seen this pattern before. Its the lake effect but its a situation where the snow falls lightly out of it instead of heavily so you get large regions of lightish snow rather than heavy showers. I think it has to do with lifting mechanisms being a little too weak but I don't fully understand it. Its kinda wierd as the heaviest snow follows the orography so places further west over the pennines actually see more snow than further east.

Anyway even though no other models are showing this pattern I'm pretty confident in the WRF's ability to handle this niche, its done it well before. Expect light snow in N england tommorow evening.

You have my vote Mr D

Euro4 suggests plenty going on the next 48 hours.
As well as the snow in the south, convective showers for the North East extending into central northern England and further snow for Northern Scotland.
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/31/basis00/ukuk/weas/19020200_3100.gif

It looks more north than the fax chart or Euro4 suggests, according the the radar.

Rotten for the West Midlands considering what was being forecast for us a couple of days ago. We have been robbed.

P.S. But on the positive side, we have some freezing fog this morning as compensation.

Considering for here  mine had dropped to 1 hour with 1 flake. It's now at its highest of 2 hours with 2 flakes and a at least another 1 flake symbol. 

Of course I am only expecting 5 flakes in total as the national forecast says it's not likely to get into Norfolk.