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The Beast from the East
30 January 2019 21:41:14
Good to see you back Helen!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bafan
30 January 2019 21:43:50

Good to see you back Helen!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


thank you laughing

Helen
Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m
Andy Woodcock
30 January 2019 21:45:21
Christ, SE Wales at 330 meters, that really is tomorrows sweet spot.

Good luck

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
doctormog
30 January 2019 21:54:34


 


thank you laughing


Originally Posted by: Bafan 


Who are you? 


(Enjoy! )

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bafan
30 January 2019 21:54:52

Christ, SE Wales at 330 meters, that really is tomorrows sweet spot.

Good luck

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Lol! Cheers 😁😁 

Helen
Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m
Bafan
30 January 2019 21:59:15


 


Who are you? 


(Enjoy! 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Haha doc! You'd never forget me 😂😂 might have to finish work early, not fancying travelling home from Newport if the forecast does come off!


 

Helen
Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m
scillydave
30 January 2019 21:59:47
Tredegar is not only the sweet spot for tomorrow it also holds the joint uk record for the deepest level snow in a populated area - 1.65m back in 1963.
That's must be been one helluva sight.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
doctormog
30 January 2019 22:03:19


 


Haha doc! You'd never forget me 😂😂 might have to finish work early, not fancying travelling home from Newport if the forecast does come off!


 


Originally Posted by: Bafan 


Of course I couldn’t forget you. I mean I have tried but my therapist says there’s no chance. 


Seriously though stay safe and enjoy it and I hope it comes off as forecast. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bafan
30 January 2019 22:03:45

Tredegar is not only the sweet spot for tomorrow it also holds the joint uk record for the deepest level snow in a populated area - 1.65m back in 1963.
That's must be been one helluva sight.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


yup but I'm waaaay to young to have seen that!  😂 To be fair, Tredegar and the Heads of the Valleys area in general do quite well with snow.  The elevation helps no doubt.

Helen
Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m
Bafan
30 January 2019 22:06:41


 


Of course I couldn’t forget you. I mean I have tried but my therapist says there’s no chance. 


Seriously though stay safe and enjoy it and I hope it comes off as forecast. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


pmsl! Bet your therapist needs therapy after seeing you 😘


Fingers crossed.  cheers doc

Helen
Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m
Joe Bloggs
30 January 2019 22:09:08


 


 


We appear to have developed a snow shield. Damn. Showers either deflecting to our south or dying before they reach here.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Don’t think any showers are forecast tonight . :-( 


Convection is weakening now as the low approaches. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Saint Snow
30 January 2019 22:17:15


 


Don’t think any showers are forecast tonight . :-( 


Convection is weakening now as the low approaches. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Yup, was talking about earlier in the evening. Shower clumps that seemed to have our name on them all drifted off to the south of us or fizzled out. 


That's it for the foreseeable for here. Pretty meagre pickings.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Snowedin3
30 January 2019 22:53:51

Gfs 18z beefs up the snow a bit for tomorrow quite widely 10/15 cm I think it’s overcooking it a little.



 


 

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
moomin75
30 January 2019 22:55:14

Gfs 18z beefs up the snow a bit for tomorrow quite widely 10/15 cm I think it’s overcooking it a little

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

Make the most of it Dean. Will almost certainly be the last we see this year. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Snowedin3
30 January 2019 22:57:23


Make the most of it Dean. Will almost certainly be the last we see this year. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


im not so sure about that, yes, we havent seen any deep cold but there is still enough time to have some more snow and cold weather


 


output can change in 6 hours you know that.

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 January 2019 23:05:43

I kinda feel sorry for the north midlands who seem to be getting thoroughly screwed over by this.


Further up north I'm expecting the lake effect to create some light but persistant snow for much of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and NE England. And although its not likely to be heavy on lower ground it will be light, dry and fluffy.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
moomin75
30 January 2019 23:07:33


Gfs 18z beefs up the snow a bit for tomorrow quite widely 10/15 cm I think it’s overcooking it a little.



 


 


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

Though I concur you and I and Marcus seem to be right in the sweet spot on this map. Believe it when I see it!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 January 2019 23:33:57

To back up what I said about N England. WRF is showing this.



 


I've seen this pattern before. Its the lake effect but its a situation where the snow falls lightly out of it instead of heavily so you get large regions of lightish snow rather than heavy showers. I think it has to do with lifting mechanisms being a little too weak but I don't fully understand it. Its kinda wierd as the heaviest snow follows the orography so places further west over the pennines actually see more snow than further east.


 


Anyway even though no other models are showing this pattern I'm pretty confident in the WRF's ability to handle this niche, its done it well before. Expect light snow in N england tommorow evening.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
southcoastmatt
30 January 2019 23:40:06
An interesting day tomorrow for southern parts of England and Wales. For me on the coast at just 65masl I'll be hoping for some evaporative cooling to help support any sustained snow/accumulation. Uppers of -2 probably not enough. I think the sweet spots tomorrow will include North Dorset/Blackmore Vale, Salisbury plain, SE Wales, and southern parts of the Cotswolds. Southern Midlands look favourable too. Looking forward to reading the reports on TWO.
Matt in Poole, Dorset
65Masl
haghir22
31 January 2019 00:07:01


Well I confidently predict that the following will happen, on the basis of cherry picking models and really wanting it to. It’s not entirely unsupported by the FAXes.... ish...

Front comes up and stalls just to the north of th north downs ridge. Heavy snow all night on Friday. A strengthening ENErly from the estuary feeds cold air in under it, boosting the front and causing it to intensify and Pivot Ross Geller style over the top of us through Friday.
A brief lull for sledging on Friday afternoon gives way to the low spiralling in from the south North Sea on Friday night.
This clears Saturday morning to allow further sledging.
I feel confident.


chances?


 


Originally Posted by: eddied 


You have my vote Mr D

YNWA
Tim A
31 January 2019 05:53:20

Euro4 suggests plenty going on the next 48 hours.
As well as the snow in the south, convective showers for the North East extending into central northern England and further snow for Northern Scotland.
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/31/basis00/ukuk/weas/19020200_3100.gif


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
redmoons
31 January 2019 06:17:31


Euro4 suggests plenty going on the next 48 hours.
As well as the snow in the south, convective showers for the North East extending into central northern England and further snow for Northern Scotland.
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/31/basis00/ukuk/weas/19020200_3100.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


It looks more north than the fax chart or Euro4 suggests, according the the radar.

Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Maunder Minimum
31 January 2019 08:15:35


Euro4 suggests plenty going on the next 48 hours.
As well as the snow in the south, convective showers for the North East extending into central northern England and further snow for Northern Scotland.
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/31/basis00/ukuk/weas/19020200_3100.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Rotten for the West Midlands considering what was being forecast for us a couple of days ago. We have been robbed.


P.S. But on the positive side, we have some freezing fog this morning as compensation.

New world order coming.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2019 08:20:50
METO app has five hours of heavy snow symbols for my location. I consider this a big upgrade. Excellent.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Snow Hoper
31 January 2019 08:28:18

METO app has five hours of heavy snow symbols for my location. I consider this a big upgrade. Excellent.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Considering for here  mine had dropped to 1 hour with 1 flake. It's now at its highest of 2 hours with 2 flakes and a at least another 1 flake symbol. 


Of course I am only expecting 5 flakes in total as the national forecast says it's not likely to get into Norfolk.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
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