The front looks very active out west. But you just know how painful today is going to be as the front moves west and starts breaking up.

We need Q to do one of his charts.

The trend has been apparent on ICON for 2-3 days: initially it was showing a very active trough delivering about six hours of quite heavy snow giving 10+ cm here as the trough pushed north. Run by run that’s been downgraded - I did suggest it might end up south of the M4, which overdid the corrections, but the system is less intense than expected.

Still expecting another 1-2 cm here overnight and maybe more.with luck.

What's strange is that many of the hi- res models don't give much snow to anyone , but the Beeb and Meto forecasts have pepped  it up a bit. Soon find out . Nowcast job

It must be a headteachers nightmare this morning in parts of southern England.

In a IMBY sort of way yesterday was interesting. Portland and Weymouth just rain, where we live near Dorchester a light snow dusting and another couple of miles inland significant snow as our daughter videoed on her phone from the bus on the way to school with quite few pupils from higher up on the downs not able to get in at all. Snow is rare here you see and we are not really used to it.

So today Weymouth and Portland look like getting rain or sleet later this morning perhaps. Inland another matter.

But the timing is critical which is why the inland schools must be getting worried.

I think I might have to drive in later to collect her from school earlier as she is not particularly keen being stuck for the night in the school hall. It has happened in past winters but not to her. The eldest at 6th form goes on a public bus so he’s in the hands of the bus company. The main road  to Dorchester is never treated or cleared nowadays because of financial cutbacks and the alternative for us is a twelve mile detour so it could be an interesting day. I have got to drive in to Weymouth to collect some print proofs after 9.00am so that should be ok roadwise. 

Yes, I have seen these events before and some people will just hot the jackpot. 

I expect anger, gnashing of teeth and excitement all rolled into one. The front looks like breaking up; but it looks messy and erratic.

NOW cast for the rest of the day

I've just been downgraded on the METO app to three heavy snow symbols and event a sleet symbol. 

Hope it works out OK.  I recall years ago when we had a surprisingly heavy fall that the roads were chaos and the boys - at different schools - were stuck for a couple of hours.  A worrying time not being sure and with the mobile network creaking.

It’s also been delayed - the other aspect of the system slowing and weakening. Was supposed to be late afternoon but now about 10 hours later. No lampposts here....

Meanwhile after today's potential we have a showery weekend ahead for some with more sleet/snow, but I'm looking at later on Sunday  for the potential snow (probably only for more northern areas) for some as a rather messy push from Atlantic lows comes in:

Snow is invariably a NowCast situation for lowland England. I can recall many occasions when were promised a dumping which never materialised. On one occasion I recall Birmingham was geared up for a major dump, but my aunt in Bristol got it instead.

Has worked the other way on occasion too - on one occasion in the 1980s we were forecast milder weather with heavy rain and we ended up with a blizzard the next day instead as the front sheared.

P.S. my sister in Belfast is reporting snow - isn't that further north and east than forecast?

Yea I can see the same too.. It's already north of Dublin and crossing the N.I border which is further North than the latest Beeb forecast has it at 12pm today. Then again it may just be me seeing things as it soo close for the W.Mids getting either nothing or something...

No it is genuine - my sister lives in Belfast and she tells me it is snowing there now,

There are a few showers ahead of the main ppn band - that's what's affecting Belfast.

I think those showers are just wind driven (looking at the radar.)

The main front is still further south.

Fair enough - but we are willing a more active front to head further north and east

We demand our share of snow in the West Midlands.

But unfortunately, the ICON high res output is dire - has the front decaying and fizzling out as it crosses the country (England)

😁😁 I'm trying very hard not to get too excited! We all know how wrong these things can go! Where's my Amber warning? 🤔😉

I'm holding on to hope! It's going to be a loooong and painful day of radar watching 

Looks slightly further north on the radar to me so I'm expecting it to swing across the channel earlier than modelled. 

looking like a non event, at least the media will shut up a bit and I have stuff to do tomorrow, so I don't mind too much

Amber warning duly issued!  You now have 14 hours of heavy snow (mostly 95%+ chance too) so even if the MetO are only half right, you should have a very decent fall, and more than the 10cm stated.  Time to get excited!