Funny thing is, if they forecast an end to the cold spell with mild wind and rain moving in from the west, that would be a dead cert and it would be wet, damp and mild for everyone. If they predict snow, it is usually less than 50/50 that it will actually arrive, however certain the models and forecasters might be in advance.

Sod's Law I suppose.

Anyway, I think the best model for this non-event has been Arpege which for several days now has given little snow comfort to UK model watchers.

Still, it has been fun for parts of the West Country which very rarely sees any of the white stuff, so good for that locale I suppose.

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Hmmm. You could be right. It is very difficult to say. If that clump that has intensified over Normandy and now the Channel keeps moving north you could be in prime place but if it stalls and loses energy......... 

Who knows!

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Well this isn’t quite working out as planned is it? It’s actually quite painful watching a forecast unravel before your eyes and it’s clear the Amber warning was for most a precaution too far (as it stands). I’m going to have to explain to my subscribers who left work early or travelled to Gatwick for a hotel instead of going up in the morning what went wrong. Glad I don’t earn a living from it.
Still time for changes but at the moment it looks positively underwhelming for most of the south.

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These showers up in the north east look very isolated and hit and miss... can't even see a cm falling at the rate

Moved thread

I am feeling realy disillusioned at the moment. We're not talking T+384 or 240 here, or even T+120. This isn't even T +48. On Thursday afternoon MetO, GFS, ECM, Beeb and probably all the other agencies paid out of someone else's pocket were forecasting several hours of heavy snow for Thursday evening. Now I'll shrink away ashamed if there is something simply adjusted here- a slight delay, say- but TBH the cloud is thinning beautifully outside after our 10minute snowjest and I'd like to know if T+6 really is that excusable.

I have a fircone called Freddie.

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I’ve got to love the Met O app!  It says ‘yellow warning of snow and ice nearby’!    I’ve never seen it say that before! Perhaps the Met O realise that every snowfall this winter has been nearby but never actually here!  

 

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Snow just come on much heavier here, forget the models and radar, its a pure nowcast look at the lampost...

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The main band is still to your south, according to the radar. You are currently in the gap between the two.

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Nice one Caz, it has been the nearly winter all the way. We nearly had a winter, but it never quite arrived.

Brian put it very well in the model thread a few days ago - this has been the best virtual winter ever.

As for January, I think it should be abolished in the UK, since it never delivers anything of note these days. I am upgrading March as the new January. This January has been a nothing month in my area - neither mild nor cold, neither wet nor dry - it is as though it did not exist at all. And not a flake of snow (so far - there is always the chance of at least one flake before midnight).

 

 

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Almost there now. Temperature now down to 0.9c and the rain has finally turned to wet snow.

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How to soften the responsibility slowly:

Sleet and snow stalling overhead but becoming lighter and more intermittent with time. Southern coastal districts are more likely to see rain or sleet, whereas inland areas may see some snow accumulations. Drier by dawn, but with icy stretches possible. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Where? Does that mean it's just not reaching the ground? Snowflakes in a perpetual gravity defying armada.

How can it be lighter and more intermittent than not falling at all?

Drier by dawn? Ha ha!

 

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Heavy band over Channel seems to have stopped pivoting and is sliding East. Not sure anyone is going to get the benefit of that now.

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Even if the precip makes it here, (the heavier stuff usually find it very difficult to much more than graze the coast) its just gone up to +1.8c so Im a bit doomed, either no snow or rain and sleet.

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Stalling overhead as in stopping its northward movement, not stopping falling!

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...and reverting to old fashioned forecasting, after midday, high cloud came in from the south west, lowered to become slate grey, flurries of snow on the wind, the temperature continues to fall, pressure 985hpa and still falling and the wind continues to increase from the East. Ignoring the radar, tweets and the digital forecasts for a moment, what would that have suggested to you, and your long beard, in January 1881??

 

Edit: erm, forgetting any climate change malarkey for a moment..

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Yes it seems to be heading for France rather than moving northwards into southern counties 

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Not sure what the fuss is about, Euro 4 is modelling This exactly perfectly atm, snow not expected here until midnight.

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Agreed, I wasn't sold on it anyhow, learnt from bitter experience. Quite often in these scenarios the dry air dries out the front and the stuff evaporates before it hits the ground, I think we can see which way this one is going. The heavier stuff usually stays offshore.

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Between shear, energy pulses and talk of stalling... radar showing it all dissolving whilst my useless metoffice app shows 5 hours of continuous snow, I almost forgot to look outside!

It’s all gone white.

(I know it’s the wrong thread, but can I suggest you look out the window between checking the models)

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Unfortunately I'm still in London so there is nothing falling here. I think it has started back home though, in a pathetic dandruffy way.

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I see the London snowshield is working a treat. None the less patience is vertue and to be fair the METO app does suggest late on the evening. But the decaying nature does worry me somewhat.

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It's coming down pretty well and sticking in Basingstoke 

Good news, it is snowing at +1.8.  Must be partly due to -1.5 dp.  Only light and grainy.  Will keep you posted.

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Loving the precariousness in here.

Meanwhile Up North it's still -4c, and there's a showers a-brewing in the north sea...

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