theweatheroutlook

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CreweCold
12 February 2019 04:05:12


 


Completely agree with this. What I call the ‘blandification’ of the climate. Extremes are being squeezed at all ends and we just end up with bland nothingness all the time. Worst era for a weather enthusiast in at least the past 160 years.


Just one of many examples that illustrate this point is that the highest mean temperature for January during this past decade here was the lowest of any decade since the 1870s yet we have seen only two Janauries in 15 years that have exceeded 5cm of snowfall. We are just not seeing the extremes at either end. Used to be common for the temperature to reach 15C on a winter day only to see a heavy snowfall just days later. One such example in February 1995 when NE Scotland recorded both the highest and lowest temperatures in the UK within three days (+15C at Dyce and -15C at Keith). Those extreme switch-arounds no longer happen.


The 90s saw few snowfalls but when they occurred they packed a punch and I can remember most of them. None of the pathetic embarrassing 1-2cm dustings that we see time after time in this pitiful era. I forget them all as soon as they are over.


Looking through these set of pictures on the local paper of heavy snowfalls in the past just highlights how bland, benign and totally uninteresting our weather has become in this century. Even bad years for snow like 1975 and 1992 are featured. I imagine the 1992 snowfall was Wednesday 16th December which was a shortlived but heavy fall of snow. The equivalent now would leave grass poking through and be no use to man nor beast.


https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/the-aberdonian/video-archive-images-of-previous-heavy-snowfalls-in-the-north-east/ (need to skip the first two galleries on Great Northern Road and Salmon Fishing to get to the snow scenes).


The anticyclonic mild crap that we are about to have to endure on top of the endless dross of this non-winter is truly excruciating. Almost certain now we will get to almost seven years without a 10cm fall – so far beyond anything ever seen before it’s incredulous. All the worse that this winter has been so unspeakably dire it has failed to even produce 5cm 


Not just snow we are seeing a lack of but heat – this decade’s maximum temperature is the lowest since at least the 1940s and heavy intense rainfall seems on the decline too - we’re closing in on a year without a single day recording 20mm of rain which is astonishing. It was notable how few days of thunder there was during the recent very wet summers compared to those of the 1950s and the considerably lower sunshine hours indicating more persistent frontal rain as opposed to heavy convective downpours. Convective activity in Spring has decreased as well which is why we haven’t had a wetter than average spring since 2006 which is extraordinary.


All adds up to the most boring era for weather in recorded history 



 



Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Certainly tallies with my thoughts. The weather just seems to be getting blander and blander. There has been a distinct dwindling of thunderstorms around this area too. 


I've never found it harder to remain enthused by the weather than I have recently.


It all seemingly ties in with the Azores HP expanding NE in its mean position over time, which I believe is a consequence of the Hadley cell expanding due to a slackening temperature gradient between the Equator and the Arctic. 


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 February 2019 04:49:55


Crocuses just coming into flower, daffs should follow in a few days

Isn't it time to close this thread and open the spring moaning thread? 


Originally Posted by: Essan 

I think we should go back to calling the threads ‘Moaning and gloating’, especially seeing as you’re boasting about your crocuses!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
LeedsLad123
12 February 2019 05:49:29


 


That’s the crux of it. We keep being told that cli... sorry, various modern factors will lead to more extreme weather conditions, and yet while America sees record-breaking freezes and swings in temperature, and southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and Japan seem to get deep dumps of snow and heatwaves on a regular basis, we in the UK seem to get perpetual nothingness with no extremes either way. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Really? In terms of snow and cold I would agree but haven’t we broken a number of heat-related records this decade? Or come close? We broke the October and July records in 2011 and 2015 respectively. We came close to the April record last year, and of course last summer speaks for itself. Haven’t we also had record warm Halloweens, record warm November days? Exceptional flooding such as in 2015?  Even in terms of cold, I don’t think we’ve done terribly - even excluding 2010, 2013 and 2018 were pretty good with widespread deep snow and ice days - and the fact that both occurred in March is even more exceptional given how incredibly hard it is to achieve ice days in March. 2012 had decent snowfall in February and temperatures down to -17C, followed by temperatures up to 17C in the same month. April last year went pretty much from winter to summer in a second, it felt like we skipped spring entirely.


I swear that I’m living in a completely different country to some of you. I think you’re taking a very uneventful winter like this one and overreacting to it. There’s been plenty of weather to talk about in recent years. As Ally mentions, we’ve broken many warm weather records over the past decade or so - it might not be the kind of records people on here want to see but they are an extreme nevertheless.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
13 February 2019 01:02:56


 


That’s the crux of it. We keep being told that cli... sorry, various modern factors will lead to more extreme weather conditions, and yet while America sees record-breaking freezes and swings in temperature, and southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and Japan seem to get deep dumps of snow and heatwaves on a regular basis, we in the UK seem to get perpetual nothingness with no extremes either way. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Couldn't agree more BBC weather presenter Stav Danaos - virtually said that north western Europe is one of the only part of the Northern latitudes that is not seeing any cold and snow or wintry weather etc! I saw photos of Seattle in Snow as well as Vancouver, then he went on to show cold air in E. Asia and then E Europe etc! There is currently another Arctic Plunge which is forecast sweep down across NE and mid western States from Canada yet again next week, and my friend in Las Vegas told me they had heavy snow there last night? IN LAS VEGAS? WHen I was in Las Vegas in 2014 Feb/March it was 28 to +30c. How the heck can Las Vegas get snow? YET we are warming up big time!? This is some real messed up crap going on here in the UK!


I am so disappointed! Here we are approaching middle of February and there is still no cold frost or snow to talk about so far and nothing in any model output which is worth while discussing and this usually is the month to be hopeful esp as the PV is weaker and northern High latitude blocking wasn't to be seen during December or January, one would assume it would occur in FEB!?


Usually February is an exciting month weather wise esp as the PV is weaker. Every February, I can remember at least one northerly, north  westerly or easterly, but maybe this Feb 2019 will be the FEB that not only failed to provide a cold snap with frost or snow but never even provided a north westerly or a proper frost! It's February FOR HEAVENS sake - these current charts are what we should be seeing in summer? This is unseasonal! I was really hoping that after a crappy winter so far February will provide something cold and blocked - BUT NO! We get more crap! +10 to 11c by night and +13 to 14c by day for the next 7 to 10 days with nothing except cloudy skies of nothingness is not how February should be! 


It's winter - why can't we have some wintry weather like other parts of the world at our latitudes!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CreweCold
13 February 2019 03:39:48


 


Couldn't agree more BBC weather presenter Stav Danaos - virtually said that north western Europe is one of the only part of the Northern latitudes that is not seeing any cold and snow or wintry weather etc! I saw photos of Seattle in Snow as well as Vancouver, then he went on to show cold air in E. Asia and then E Europe etc! There is currently another Arctic Plunge which is forecast sweep down across NE and mid western States from Canada yet again next week, and my friend in Las Vegas told me they had heavy snow there last night? IN LAS VEGAS? WHen I was in Las Vegas in 2014 Feb/March it was 28 to +30c. How the heck can Las Vegas get snow? YET we are warming up big time!? This is some real messed up crap going on here in the UK!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


There's something fundamental going on which is causing these repeated deep cold outbreaks across the US year after year. Not sure whether it's due to the PDO...if this is the case then I think it's due to flip soon so we'll soon see.


I think this winter has been ruined by a combination of factors...A SSW that didn't split the vortex favourably for us, the descending wQBO and sea surface temperatures both across the Atlantic and Pacific sectors which pointed towards a +NAO set up. 


If we see a warm/hot summer this year, we could be seeing some abnormally high SSTs around the UK come September.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2019 06:43:22


 


Really? In terms of snow and cold I would agree but haven’t we broken a number of heat-related records this decade? Or come close? We broke the October and July records in 2011 and 2015 respectively. We came close to the April record last year, and of course last summer speaks for itself. Haven’t we also had record warm Halloweens, record warm November days? Exceptional flooding such as in 2015?  Even in terms of cold, I don’t think we’ve done terribly - even excluding 2010, 2013 and 2018 were pretty good with widespread deep snow and ice days - and the fact that both occurred in March is even more exceptional given how incredibly hard it is to achieve ice days in March. 2012 had decent snowfall in February and temperatures down to -17C, followed by temperatures up to 17C in the same month. April last year went pretty much from winter to summer in a second, it felt like we skipped spring entirely.


I swear that I’m living in a completely different country to some of you. I think you’re taking a very uneventful winter like this one and overreacting to it. There’s been plenty of weather to talk about in recent years. As Ally mentions, we’ve broken many warm weather records over the past decade or so - it might not be the kind of records people on here want to see but they are an extreme nevertheless.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 I’m on the same planet as you. I just think some people have short memories, or I’m easily pleased, because I think we’ve had some very interesting weather.  Seeing all the records broken on the CET thread last year was quite something!   It certainly put paid to the claims that we never get Easterlies and summer’s are not like they used to be!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Retron
13 February 2019 07:05:26


 It certainly put paid to the claims that we never get Easterlies and summer’s are not like they used to be!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Can't speak about summers (as I detest the season), but it's not put paid to the claims we don't get midwinter easterlies.


The only two we've had down here since 1997 were both right at the end-of-season ones: Feb 2005 and Feb 2018. One delivered a fortnight of mushy snow (nice to see and as Philip Eden said, the last true easterly spell) and of course last year - which was a brief but very cold punch, record-breakingly cold in fact. However, unlike the easterlies of yore it only lasted a few days and that was that.


We haven't had a midwinter (i.e. mid Dec to mid-Feb) easterly since 1997, but before that we had them in 1996, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1985... you get the idea.


I will carry on looking for a proper 80s-style easterly. We will get one some day, I'm sure!


 

Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2019 07:49:17


I will carry on looking for a proper 80s-style easterly. We will get one some day, I'm sure!


 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Quite agree even if I can't quote chapter and verse. We lived in Kent 1976-2002 and easterlies - or more commonly it seemed, north-easterlies were a regular feature of the second half of winter and early spring. We moved to Chichester in 2002, and expected simlar to continue though perhaps moderated by the distance from the North Sea, but the only decent snow we've had in that period has been from the north.


When we get on to asummer moaning thread I'll have something to say about the recent lack of thunderstorms exported from France, too.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
LeedsLad123
13 February 2019 08:13:59


 I’m on the same planet as you. I just think some people have short memories, or I’m easily pleased, because I think we’ve had some very interesting weather.  Seeing all the records broken on the CET thread last year was quite something!   It certainly put paid to the claims that we never get Easterlies and summer’s are not like they used to be!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I think if you live in an area like Retron where it’s easterly or bust then it’s more understandable but we don’t need them here to get deep snow, far from it. Most of the best snow events here seem to be frontal. Being inland helps a lot too.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
13 February 2019 10:37:11


 


There's something fundamental going on which is causing these repeated deep cold outbreaks across the US year after year. Not sure whether it's due to the PDO...if this is the case then I think it's due to flip soon so we'll soon see.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Yes! Must be - i remember a couple years ago there was even snow in Taipei, Taiwan , extreme cold in Hong Kong, we have seen numerous cold out breaks there, last December there was snow in tropical Florida (Tallahassee) - what about snow in Las Vegas on Sunday? What about snow in Hawaii? I mean Hawaii? Richard? - It's worth moving there? 


There is some real messed up crap going on here with our weather: see below article story on this:


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/11/us/hawaii-weather/index.html


Snow in Las Vegas see below news article:


https://abc7news.com/weather/snow-way-las-vegas-hit-with-snow-and-strong-winds/5133181/


See above video!? You can see palm tree's there for heavens sake and it looks like a blizzard there - 


There has been severe cold weather and prolonged cold and snow in Seattle - they are coastal too?


There is repeated snow and deep cold as you mentioned that will strike N. America yet again!? So there is something which is messed up here for the Uk and I want and need to know what the hell is going on WITH OUR weather?


People say to me time again that we are a little island surrounded by water and so on but so is Hawaii, so is Crete and Cyprus, SO Is Taiwan etc and list goes on!? But they have no problems getting cold and snow don't they?


I remember in Jan 2017 again SE Europe saw extreme cold when it was purely the UK not seeing anything cold or wintry!? Central Europe esp Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary etc saw records amounts of snow in January and wasn't just over the high mountains or ski resorts.


It could be down to the PDO yes - because even during a westerly QBO there have been cold and snowy outbreaks in many places that don't see it anyway so i doubt it's that and we had blocking and snow during a westerly QBO too. SO that rules that out!!


 


 


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2019 11:35:16
Hmm looking at this morning's charts, it would appear there's a better chance of snow falling in the Azores next week than there is in the UK!
Saint Snow
13 February 2019 15:10:25


 


Can't speak about summers (as I detest the season), but it's not put paid to the claims we don't get midwinter easterlies.


The only two we've had down here since 1997 were both right at the end-of-season ones: Feb 2005 and Feb 2018. One delivered a fortnight of mushy snow (nice to see and as Philip Eden said, the last true easterly spell) and of course last year - which was a brief but very cold punch, record-breakingly cold in fact. However, unlike the easterlies of yore it only lasted a few days and that was that.


We haven't had a midwinter (i.e. mid Dec to mid-Feb) easterly since 1997, but before that we had them in 1996, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1985... you get the idea.


I will carry on looking for a proper 80s-style easterly. We will get one some day, I'm sure!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Didn't the winters of 2010/11 & 2012/13 have cold easterly spells?


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
13 February 2019 15:13:23

Oh, and this weather is boring crap. Some sun, some cloud, some drizzle. Temps like a tepid bath. 


That halfway house of hell, which is spring. Even the days are drawing out, so I'm travelling to work in the light, and home in mostly light.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
snow 2004
13 February 2019 15:51:15


 


Yes! Must be - i remember a couple years ago there was even snow in Taipei, Taiwan , extreme cold in Hong Kong, we have seen numerous cold out breaks there, last December there was snow in tropical Florida (Tallahassee) - what about snow in Las Vegas on Sunday? What about snow in Hawaii? I mean Hawaii? Richard? - It's worth moving there? 


There is some real messed up crap going on here with our weather: see below article story on this:


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/11/us/hawaii-weather/index.html


Snow in Las Vegas see below news article:


https://abc7news.com/weather/snow-way-las-vegas-hit-with-snow-and-strong-winds/5133181/


See above video!? You can see palm tree's there for heavens sake and it looks like a blizzard there - 


There has been severe cold weather and prolonged cold and snow in Seattle - they are coastal too?


There is repeated snow and deep cold as you mentioned that will strike N. America yet again!? So there is something which is messed up here for the Uk and I want and need to know what the hell is going on WITH OUR weather?


People say to me time again that we are a little island surrounded by water and so on but so is Hawaii, so is Crete and Cyprus, SO Is Taiwan etc and list goes on!? But they have no problems getting cold and snow don't they?


I remember in Jan 2017 again SE Europe saw extreme cold when it was purely the UK not seeing anything cold or wintry!? Central Europe esp Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary etc saw records amounts of snow in January and wasn't just over the high mountains or ski resorts.


It could be down to the PDO yes - because even during a westerly QBO there have been cold and snowy outbreaks in many places that don't see it anyway so i doubt it's that and we had blocking and snow during a westerly QBO too. SO that rules that out!!


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


I often forget that the USA is over 2500 miles across. Being continental aswell, they have a far greater chance of rolling a double six when the jet meanders and buckles around.

Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
LeedsLad123
13 February 2019 18:27:49


Oh, and this weather is boring crap. Some sun, some cloud, some drizzle. Temps like a tepid bath. 


That halfway house of hell, which is spring. Even the days are drawing out, so I'm travelling to work in the light, and home in mostly light.



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Drizzle? No rain whatsoever in the forecast here. Almost every day is forecast to be partly cloudy, the next 2 days completely sunny. Every day in double digits.


Combine that with the lengthening days, flowers sprouting, various birds starting to sing again and it really does feel that we have turned a corner. 


I just hope we don’t get a cold spell in March like last year to ruin things.


 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
13 February 2019 18:33:56


 


Drizzle? No rain whatsoever in the forecast here. Almost every day is forecast to be partly cloudy, the next 2 days completely sunny. Every day in double digits.


Combine that with the lengthening days, flowers sprouting, various birds starting to sing again and it really does feel that we have turned a corner. 


I just hope we don’t get a cold spell in March like last year to ruin things.


 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


No rain forecast here either. Perfectly sunny tomorrow, 13C. 


I agree with your sentiments - bring it on. :-) 


Sorry I realise this is the moaning thread! 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
richardabdn
13 February 2019 20:30:37

Felt that things had finally changed for the better over the past couple of weeks with bright mornings and Sunday was glorious. Now it's like we've been hurled back to the dark days of November with grim, soul destroying autumnal gunk


Utter dross today. Mostly Cloudy, windy, 10.9C but didn't feel anything like it. How the hell anyone can think this is desirable I don't know. Just horrible and it's still 9.1C now with that vile wind rattling away again


The totally useless outlook sums up why this is the most repellent and worthless era for weather ever recorded. You endure one of the most dire and depressing three months of weather imaginable only to be rewarded with something even more dire and depressing.


I literally can't think of anything worse than this rubbish. Even rain would be better. Starting to get worried about the lack of rain. Not because of concerns about drought but because the wet stuff may arrive just in time to ruin the outdoor season. A string of wet months now would be rubbing salt into the wounds after another abomination of a winter. The fact that this is currently on course to be the first winter since 2011/12 to fail to record 100mm is really setting off alarm bells 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
xioni2
14 February 2019 10:51:19

What an absolutely stunning day, more please!


 

Northern Sky
14 February 2019 11:24:36


 


Drizzle? No rain whatsoever in the forecast here. Almost every day is forecast to be partly cloudy, the next 2 days completely sunny. Every day in double digits.


Combine that with the lengthening days, flowers sprouting, various birds starting to sing again and it really does feel that we have turned a corner. 


I just hope we don’t get a cold spell in March like last year to ruin things.


 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


I love this kind of weather - in Spring...


I just can't enjoy it in what is supposed to be Winter.

Saint Snow
14 February 2019 11:59:30


 


Drizzle? No rain whatsoever in the forecast here. Almost every day is forecast to be partly cloudy, the next 2 days completely sunny. Every day in double digits.


Combine that with the lengthening days, flowers sprouting, various birds starting to sing again and it really does feel that we have turned a corner. 


I just hope we don’t get a cold spell in March like last year to ruin things.


 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


I was talking about what the previous few days had been like.


Today is broadly sunny and mild. As NS says, fine for when you're in spring; awful in February (although was surprised to find my car frosted up this morning)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
14 February 2019 12:19:50


 


 


I was talking about what the previous few days had been like.


Today is broadly sunny and mild. As NS says, fine for when you're in spring; awful in February (although was surprised to find my car frosted up this morning)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Why on Earth would you find Spring-like weather with sunshine and being able to feel the warmth by the sun awful in February?! Mind you, I also wonder about people who find stormy wild weather exciting, like that god-awful winter of 2104 (remember what it was on this very day of that year) when all I can think about what damage it could do to my house. Even icy cold snowy weather is starting to lose its appeal, especially when it is rare as hens teeth at this end anyway.

I'm making it sound like I'm losing interest in actual weather and now appreciate the calmer more useable days to potter about in the garden, like today for instance. Perhaps I might move away from meteorology and focus on my other hobbies (photography and cartoon drawling).

Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
14 February 2019 12:23:45


Didn't the winters of 2010/11 & 2012/13 have cold easterly spells?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Not down here - no ice days etc. December 2010 is a sore point, as that month sucked compared to what happened elsewhere in the UK - we got a couple of slushy falls of snow and then a load of rain, while it seemed everyone else was having a winter wonderland! I guess last year's Beast kind of made up for it, but that was only 4 days or so...


 

Leysdown, north Kent
idj20
14 February 2019 12:36:58


 


Not down here - no ice days etc. December 2010 is a sore point, as that month sucked compared to what happened elsewhere in the UK - we got a couple of slushy falls of snow and then a load of rain, while it seemed everyone else was having a winter wonderland! I guess last year's Beast kind of made up for it, but that was only 4 days or so...


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 



I even missed out on that came the moment. Just a slight powder dusting and then a short lived but quite rare freezing rain event, and thus the wait to see an actual proper snow cover with drifting since March 2013 continues. But to be honest, it might be time to admit that something is happening to our winters and snow cover will be as rare here as it is in Rome or Madrid.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
14 February 2019 14:37:14


Why on Earth would you find Spring-like weather with sunshine and being able to feel the warmth by the sun awful in February?! 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Because I prefer cold weather in winter?


I'd be happy to barely see the sun from December to the end of Feb. Much prefer to have deep snow covering everything for the 3 months and, although there've been some exceptions (Dec 10 springs to mind), the sun is normally the destroyer of snow. I actually wish we had less daylight through the winter, too. I'm not going to move, but only having light between, say, about 10am and 3pm would be great. 


I'm not averse to the odd stormy winter spell, either. At least it's exciting!. And I love fog. 


 


In summer, I want exactly the opposite - day after day of sunshine, high temps and dryness. Thunder storms don't do much for me, and come with rain. I hate rain.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
andy-manc
14 February 2019 14:45:15

I prefer any winter weather to stay in December and January and the noticeably longer days in February make me feel positive and excited for spring. I find the short days of January very difficult and depressing.


I'm enjoying this current spell much more than the February easterly last year. Better for the bills too! I even cut my grass yesterday :D

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