I think a lot of folk are half focusing on changes to the polar strat that we now see each winter as a guarantee of us seeing a long 'polar plunge' or the arrival of a BFTE.
If they would gen up on SSW's/PNJ splits they might better understand that such abnormal behaviours are as likely to throw up WAA over the country as it is either an SSW that disturbs the pattern to the point that we see long fetch easterlies or a detached lobe of the PNJ setting up shop over the UK ( as we have seen over multiple winters in Canada/N.USA?)
I think folk also need acquaint themselves with the impact the Rockies can have on the Polar jet and the downstream patterns this sets into motion?
With our atmosphere responding to the forcings of the past 150 yrs we find ever more 'extremes' visited on us but not all are of the 'cold variety'.
We have seen floods, we have seen low rainfall and we have also seen abnormal warmth ( not just N of 80 degrees!), all of it interesting if you study it and all of it helping us better understand the changes we are seeing?
Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf