BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The often wet and windy weather continues

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Saturday 20 July – Sunday 28 July

Heating up in the South next week, cooler later

A fairly unsettled Saturday will see a gradually shift into a more north-south split in the weather for the UK from Sunday and into next week for a time. Saturday will start off wet in the Southeast with some heavy showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. This rain will clear to the east by the late morning. Scattered heavy showers will then drift into all areas of Britain from the west in the late morning, and by the afternoon a few thunderstorms are expected in central and eastern Britain. These will produce locally frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

From Sunday and through into Tuesday, high pressure building in Central Europe will keep things fine and dry in the southern half of the UK, but the northern half will see plenty of rain, which will be heavy at times. There is a risk for some local flooding in West Scotland from Sunday through Tuesday. A heat wave expected to develop in France will bring in some hot air to the Southeast from Tuesday, with temperatures well above average and reaching into the low 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying a bit cooler up north, but still warmer than this week has been.

For the second half of the week, there is some uncertainty in the forecast based on a cold front arriving from the west. The jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - is unusually strong for summertime in the United States and Atlantic. This will likely result in a cold front arriving on Thursday, bringing some relief from the heat but also a risk for some heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially in the North. Low pressure will then take over, and keep things unsettled and feeling cooler through the weekend.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

Cooler and more unsettled start to August

As we head into August, there is good support for low pressure systems to become more dominant weather features for North Europe, allowing Atlantic fronts to move through the UK. High pressure is also expected to ease in the near Continent, so fronts are expected to reach into southern areas of the UK as well as the north. For the first half of the week winds are expected to bring in some cooler polar air causing temperatures to dip to near or below average for late July/early August. This will be more noticeable in the west and north, with a cooler feeling onshore breeze. In general northern and western areas will see more frequent showers and cloudy skies, with the best of the dry and bright weather being in the south and east.

Fronts will bring in short-lived outbreaks of rain to all areas at times, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty on the day-to-day specifics. As the week progresses, low pressure is expected to gradually shift slightly northwards towards Iceland, which will likely bring in a return to the north-south split in the weather. The northern half of the UK will continue to see wetter and windier weather than typical for August, while the southern half of the UK turns a bit drier and brighter, although still occasional outbreaks of rain.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Wet and windy, but drier at times in the South

For the first full week of August, low pressure will still be very much in charge of the weather pattern for the UK. This will bring in Atlantic fronts, outbreaks of rain and occasional thunderstorms, and windy weather to mostly northern regions. Occasionally the wetter and windier weather will reach into the southern half of the country, but it will generally be drier and brighter here. Going deeper into August, high pressure looks to become more influential in Central Europe again, which will push the low pressure near the UK even further north. While northern areas are still expected to remain unsettled and stormy at times, the South will turn mostly dry and bright, with temperatures climbing to a bit above average.

There currently aren't any strong signals for prolonged heat in either the UK or Central Europe through mid-August, but there is risk that another heat wave could develop with high pressure building into the Continent. Low pressure near the UK with the jet stream overhead will tend to mean any heat waves that do form will remain south of the UK, with just a chance for a brief hot spell or two lasting only a few days. There also isn't any strong signal for a remarkably wet or cold August either. The weather is expected to remain quite changeable with temperatures tending to linger near average with only brief deviations.

Further ahead

Taking a closer look at the first half of August, we will see if things look any better for a drier and sunnier summer to appear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

This BBC long ranger has been forecast cool and wet for weeks now and it hasn't materialised. This again looks very very wrong.

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Saturday 27 Jul - Monday 5 Aug

Low confidence in the forecast for the weekend, with uncertainty in regard to the track and development of an area of low pressure southwest of the UK. This may bring a spell of wet and windy weather northeastwards across the UK during Saturday and Sunday. However, it should stay largely dry in the east and southeast. It will remain very warm in the southeast, with some localised heavy rain or thunderstorms possible. Into next week and we are likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK, with further showers or longer spells of rain affecting northwestern parts, with a better chance of drier and warmer weather in the south and east. Temperatures will generally be above the average for the time of year.

Tuesday 6 Aug - Tuesday 20 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, especially in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head into late August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 28 Jul - Tuesday 6 Aug

On Sunday spells of heavy and possibly thundery rain may affect Scotland and the far east and northeast of England, especially during the morning. Elsewhere sunny spells and scattered showers, but with some central and southeastern parts staying dry. At the start of next week there'll most probably be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells, with showers most likely in the west and southwest where there may be some longer spells of rain at times. During the first week of August wet and occasionally windy weather is expected to mainly affect the northwest, with a better chance of drier and warmer weather in the south and east. Temperatures will generally be above the average, and possibly hot at times in the southeast.

Wednesday 7 Aug - Wednesday 21 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially so in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler by the weekend, but more warm weather ahead

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Wednesday 24 July – Sunday 28 July

Hot today and tomorrow but cooler by the weekend

The current very warm or hot weather is expected to continue today and on Thursday, with some parts of the country likely to see record-breaking temperatures. There will be a lot of sunshine too, but some places will see some heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms affected the UK last night, these storms expected to clear away to the north and north-east during today.
The continuing hot weather is likely to spark off a few more thundery showers tomorrow, most likely across western and northern parts of the UK. Friday should see cooler conditions for most of the UK, although temperatures will still be a little above normal in many areas and the very warm, humid air could linger across the far south-east of England for much of the day.

There will be the chance of some showers too, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The weekend is a little bit more unsettled. A front is likely to linger close to or over eastern counties of England and over Scotland bringing a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain here. There is a slight chance that this front may drift further out into the North Sea, but for now we expect there to be some wet weather in Central, northern and eastern parts of the country on Saturday. South West England, Wales and Northern Ireland should be dry and sunny. Sunday will see a mix of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures should be near normal for the time of year.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

A little more unsettled but still warm for many

Low pressure is expected to sit close to the west of the UK for much of next week. As a result, the weather is looking changeable with some northern and western parts of the country a little wetter than normal due to showers and longer spells of rain. The same areas are also likely to be windier than normal for the time of year, although we don't currently expect any very windy days.
Central, southern and eastern areas may see some showers or perhaps even some thunderstorms, but over the week as a whole it is likely to be drier than normal in these areas, this mainly due to the proximity of high pressure.

Winds will tend to be from the south next week, drawing continental air across some parts of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in many parts of the country, although not to the scale we are seeing this week. Only Northern Ireland is expected to see temperatures near normal. The main alternative to our expected weather is for low pressure to move further eastwards across the UK. This would mean that the south and east also sees some wetter and windier conditions and won't be quite as warm.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Some wet weather possible, but drier mid-month

There is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast for the first full week of August. The most likely case is that high pressure centered over Scandinavia will extend towards the UK, bringing dry and calm weather to northern parts of the country. At the same time, low pressure systems moving into France and then southern Europe are likely to bring spells of wetter and breezy or windy weather to the south of the UK at times. However, temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal in all areas of the UK.

There is the chance of more widespread low pressure systems at this time, which would bring unsettled weather to more of the country. Confidence increases a little as we head towards the middle of August. It is most likely that we will see high pressure becoming more dominant, so drier and calmer weather is likely for most areas - although Scotland could become a little wetter and windier then. There are indications that temperatures will lift further above normal in the south of the UK. Whether this is an early sign of another heatwave is uncertain, but a spell of very warm weather can't be ruled out at this stage.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the dry and warm weather in August, and see whether another heat-wave looks any more likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Interesting that both Met Office and BBC pick up on the chance of more continental heat in mid August

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Yes good output from the Met Office especially if you like heat.

 

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Monday 29 Jul - Wednesday 7 Aug

Further isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the UK during Monday, although these will tend to ease. Elsewhere, it will be mostly dry with sunny spells. Still warm, especially in the east, but temperatures will be closer to average elsewhere. The rest of the period looks likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK. This will give outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy, and strong winds at times across northwestern parts, with the south and especially the southeast, likely to remain warm or very warm, with the risk of some showers, but mostly dry with sunny spells. If we get a feed of air from the south, then localised heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, and potentially hot conditions, especially across the south and southeast.

Thursday 8 Aug - Thursday 22 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south, especially during the second half of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 30 Jul - Thursday 8 Aug

Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely in western and northern parts of the UK on Tuesday with brisk winds, but drier and brighter weather is expected in the east. The rest of the period looks likely to see a northwest/southeast split in the weather across the UK. This will give outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy, and strong winds at times across northwestern parts, with the south and especially the southeast, likely to remain warm or very warm, with the risk of some showers, but mostly dry with sunny spells. If we get a feed of air from the south, then localised heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, and potentially hot conditions, especially across the south and southeast.

Friday 9 Aug - Friday 23 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather may develop more widely for a time. However, there is also an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms developing in the south, especially during the second half of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Much cooler


• Rain at times to end July


• Warmer spells in August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/26/john-hammond-month-ahead-normality-returns/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 31 Jul - Friday 9 Aug

There is higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period. Through Wednesday and Thursday, the most likely weather scenario is for low pressure to be centred to the west of the UK. This would bring rain or showers across the country, particularly across more western areas. The driest and brightest weather is expected across southeastern parts. Temperatures will generally be close to normal, although perhaps a little below average in the west. Confidence remains low thereafter, but it is most likely that low pressure will be centred to the northwest of the UK giving rise to showers or longer spells of rain here. With higher pressure towards the southeast, there is a better chance of drier and brighter weather and warmer temperatures as a result.

Saturday 10 Aug - Saturday 24 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. Whilst the north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather at first, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast, by the third week of August it looks as though settled weather is slightly more probable. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet this weekend. Dry and warm at times in August

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Saturday 27 July – Sunday 4 August

Rain this weekend. Becoming drier next week.

A slow moving front will lie across Scotland, northern and eastern England on Saturday. This will bring a lot of cloud and widespread rain, the rain persistent and heavy in some areas, perhaps turning locally thundery. Southern and southwestern England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to remain largely dry with sunny spells, and only a slight chance of showers. The front will be a little further south and west on Sunday, so the Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland will have a cloudier, wet day. The far south-west of the UK will remain largely dry, and eastern Scotland and north-east England should be a little brighter but with occasional showers.

Temperatures will be near normal for the time of year for most parts of the UK over the weekend. An Atlantic low pressure system could bring a spell of windy and wet weather to south-west and southern England on Monday and to south east England on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the main pattern for next week will see low pressure to the west of the UK, but a ridge of high pressure building across the country. There will be some showers and rain in the north and west of the UK before the ridge of high pressure arrives, but the second half of the week should be drier than the first. Temperatures will be near normal, perhaps lifting above later in the week as high pressure arrives.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August

Becoming unsettled and wetter than normal for some

After the relatively dry end to the previous week, the first full week of August looks likely to bring us more unsettled weather. The ridge of high pressure sitting across the UK is expected to drift eastwards into Europe, with Atlantic low pressure expected to move in from the west to bring spells of wet weather to many parts of the UK. It looks wetter than average for the time of year in many areas, which may be good news for some areas of the country which have been having a relatively dry summer so far.

Temperatures are likely to be a little above normal at first but will drop the near normal as the weather becomes more unsettled. There will be a chance of some windy days too. Whilst unsettled weather looks more likely than calmer weather, there is a chance that we could see high pressure clinging on. This would mean drier, less windy and slightly warmer weather, in a pattern similar to that at the start of July i.e. high pressure over the UK on a number of days with low pressure off towards Scandinavia.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August

Tending to become drier and warmer in most areas.

The middle and end of August is likely to see high pressure becoming more of a feature across France and Central Europe, with the high pressure extending across the UK at times. This gives us a higher chance of seeing dry weather and could also help temperatures to rise above normal. Atlantic low pressure systems are expected to continue to track close to the north and north-west of the UK at times, so it is not expected to be completely dry with spells of showery or rainy weather likely.

Scotland could see rainfall remaining above average and it most likely to see temperatures near normal, whilst the rest of the country looks drier than normal, less windy than normal and a bit warmer too. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for low pressure to remain the main feature across the UK, with temperatures remaining near normal, some windy days and with rainfall near or above normal in most areas. It is probably worth noting that there is a small - perhaps just a 1 in 10 - chance of another spell of very warm weather developing if high pressure is stronger across the UK.

Further ahead

The weather looks fairly changeable over August as a whole, but we'll take another look at the chances of dry and very warm weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 1 Aug - Saturday 10 Aug

There is higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period. On Thursday there are likely to be sunny spells and some showers, but many areas may remain dry. By Friday it should be dry with bright spells for most, weather fronts may spread from the west later, bringing an increasing risk of rain and showers for the first Saturday of August. It will still feel warm and humid at times, with generally light winds. Confidence remains low thereafter, but it is most likely that lower pressure will tend to dominate at first, bringing a risk of showery rain, especially in the west and northwest, however there may also be some spells of more generally settled weather, particularly towards the end of this period.

Sunday 11 Aug - Sunday 25 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. The north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

SUMMER SIZZLER 

UK weather forecast – Britain to bake in THREE more Saharan heatwaves after hottest day ever

 
 BRITAIN is set to sizzle in THREE more Saharan heatwaves following the hottest July day ever. Temperatures are not expected to reach Thursday's high of 38.7C but the hot weather will still peak at a baking 35C next month. As early as Wednesday, heat is expected to push from the south and sweep the country.

The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze said: “Summer's gone AWOL, with a miserable few days for families on holidays. “But the heat will be back later in the week and again in mid-month, when 35C is possible.”

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9597715/uk-weather-forecast-heatwave-three-hottest-day/

Did Brian really put a figure on it? It'll be interesting to see if Brian's words were bent out of shape to suit an agenda 😂

I expect a couple more bursts of heat as we head into August. Nice of the Sun to specify exactly how many heatwaves we're due to receive though 😎

As the MetO themselves have tweeted, a complete crock. Hail, yes. Snow, no.

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The same misreporting from the Tour de France. The white stuff which stopped the race was clearly hail, as you could see from the way it was being cleared up by a JCB

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....and we wonder why agencies are so careful with their wording!!!
If they can’t hype it they won’t report it..

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Friday 2 Aug - Sunday 11 Aug

Friday will see a chance of showers for most areas, but there will probably be a good deal of dry and sunny weather too across the UK. Into next weekend we are then most likely going to see a northwest-southeast split develop, with the wettest and windiest weather in the northwest. The best of the drier weather will be towards the southeast, where it will also remain warm. The rest of the period is likely to see low pressure close by, but confidence is low throughout this period. The wettest weather will be in the west, with rain most likely in the form of showers. Temperatures are likely to be close to or just above average, perhaps more especially across the south and southeast.

Monday 12 Aug - Monday 26 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. The north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 3 Aug - Monday 12 Aug

Saturday will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, possibly thundery across parts of Scotland and northern England. Elsewhere, it should be mostly dry with warm sunny spells. Into next week, low pressure looks likely to be located just to the west of the UK, which would bring a west to southwesterly across the majority of the UK, with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, especially across western parts, with daytime showers breaking out elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Tuesday 13 Aug - Tuesday 27 Aug

Into the second week of August and there is now a strong signal for unsettled conditions to prevail, with low pressure likely either close to or just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which would generally lead to above average temperatures and rainfall. During the second half of August, low pressure looks set to be situated to the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow across the UK, with the wettest conditions in the north and west. The signal for higher pressure to be towards the far southwest may lead to possibly drier and slightly warmer conditions at times here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Greater certainty of a low pressure dominated month from the Met Office but with quite a difference between the first and second halves of the month if the above forecast verifies

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Met office CPF 

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August and August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For August, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. For August-September-October as a whole, the chances of aboveand below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-aso-v1.pdf

 

I never understand is everyone goes nuts when they see hail in the summer... but its really common.  expecially when thunderstorms are concerned. 

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Sunday 4 Aug - Tuesday 13 Aug

On Sunday early outbreaks of rain in the west will turn more showery and spread erratically eastwards through the day, with some heavy and thundery showers by the afternoon. Breezy in the west, with temperatures generally near normal. Through the following week, low pressure is likely to be located just to the west of the UK. This would bring west to southwesterly winds across the majority of the UK, but with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, into western parts, with daytime showers breaking out more generally elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Wednesday 14 Aug - Wednesday 28 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions, with low pressure likely to be centred just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which as well as bringing periods of showers or longer spells of rain, would generally lead to above average temperatures. Into the second half of August, low pressure will probably move to lie the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow, with the wettest conditions in the north and west, although the far southwest may have some drier and slightly warmer weather at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast