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Quantum
25 July 2019 18:35:06


 


Just going by these figures alone, which model do you think performed the best regarding the maxima today? One thing for sure, the HARMONIE proved to be an overestimator yet again. (I commented a few days ago that it did the same thing over here during the late June heatwave last year)


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


AROME did very well. Got the location bang on too.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
25 July 2019 18:35:34


 


UKV appears to have overcooked too. Arpege was the best.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hadn't Arpege consistently shown 39-40°C in places or is my memory playing tricks?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
25 July 2019 18:36:12


 


UKV appears to have overcooked too. Arpege was the best.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Today's forecast was very good but ARPEGE was worse than most when it came to overcooking until today.


Yesterday it went for 41C in the cambridge area. Worse than HARMONIE


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
25 July 2019 18:36:26


 


UKV appears to have overcooked too. Arpege was the best.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That would seem to be the case alright. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
25 July 2019 18:36:50


 


AROME did very well. Got the location bang on too.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Arome is high-res enough to show a little ring of high temps for Cambridge (and a ring of lower temperatures over Grafham Water nearby!)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
25 July 2019 18:37:16


 


Hadn't Arpege consistently shown 39-40°C in places or is my memory playing tricks?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yep. 39C+ until today when it backed off. Yesterday it had a 41C tile.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
lanky
25 July 2019 18:37:43


 


UKV appears to have overcooked too. Arpege was the best.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It clouded over just at the wrong time this afternoon for many sites and this wasn't forecast to that extent as far as I can recall


No good doing "what ifs" but I wonder whether the record might have been beaten somewhere in the SE if it had stayed clear


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Tim A
25 July 2019 18:38:30



Look at Bingley at 1830 it was 33 C.....its 260m up on the Pennines 😲

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Pretty sure the station is on the moor surrounded by heather. 33.5c max. 2c warmer than previous record.  Must have been 35c plus in the valleys.  I noticed there was much less cloud over that way this afternoon.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Bugglesgate
25 July 2019 18:38:57


The 1800 synops are starting to come in, showing the official maxima.

Bedford's one still doesn't show any temp data, even for the daily max. What a shambles.

Highest so far - all those over 35C to date.

London Heathrow 37.9C
Northolt 37.6C
Benson 37.0C
St James's Park 37.0C
Wittering 36.7C
Rothamsted 36.6C
Marham 36.5C
Cranwell 36.3C
Holbeach 36.1C
Nottingham 36.1C
Langdon Bay 35.9C
Andrewsfield 35.7C
Farnborough 35.7C
Manston 35.5C
High Wycombe 35.2C
Odiham 35.1C
Scampton 35.1C
Waddington 35.1C
Herstmonceux 35.0C


(Cambridge doesn't supply a synop by the look of it)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Car thermometer  registered 37 at  Chilton, South Oxfordshire  not far from Benson, so despite the renowned   inaccurate of such things I can almost believe it .


Dropped a degree or so travelling south towards  Newbury.


Certainly boiled my  head somewhat   driving an open top car today, even if the thermometer was over reading by a degree or so !


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
superteacher
25 July 2019 18:41:20
In terms of achieving 40C, I think it will occur via a widespread heat dome situation rather than a plume. Like 2003 but with slightly better uppers. Probably done for this year though.
Brian Gaze
25 July 2019 18:41:32


 


Today's forecast was very good but ARPEGE was worse than most when it came to overcooking until today.


Yesterday it went for 41C in the cambridge area. Worse than HARMONIE


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Which Arpege run showed that? The highest Arpege value I saw on TWO was 39C. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
25 July 2019 18:43:13


 


AROME did very well. Got the location bang on too.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Seems an alright model for temps, but not so good when it comes to picking up shower intensity (which it often overplays) & distribution, but then again, no worse than any other hi-res model in that regard!

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Brian Gaze
25 July 2019 18:44:15


 


It clouded over just at the wrong time this afternoon for many sites and this wasn't forecast to that extent as far as I can recall


No good doing "what ifs" but I wonder whether the record might have been beaten somewhere in the SE if it had stayed clear


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


As I said on Twitter the problem with that line of thinking is you could say if X, Y or Z had happened in Aug 2003 the record could have been higher. Aug 2003 is what it is and the same is true for today.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
25 July 2019 18:44:20


 


Which Arpege run showed that? The highest Arpege value I saw on TWO was 39C. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It was the 12Z. Viewed on meteociel there was a single 41C tile for the maximun temp (20:00) zoomed in. No 41c contour though so probably 40.5-40.9C


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
25 July 2019 18:45:59


 


Seems an alright model for temps, but not so good when it comes to picking up shower intensity (which it often overplays) & distribution, but then again, no worse than any other hi-res model in that regard!


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yes I've known AROME to be pretty bad at picking up convection/shower activity.


In the winter its amazing for telling you what the precip type will be, pretty bad for telling you where the precip will be!

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
25 July 2019 18:47:02

If the maxima has already been retrospectively increased from 38.1C to 38.4C surely we could still break the record?


Only needs another 0.2C


Which stations are left?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
25 July 2019 18:59:52
Is this 38.4C a confirmed reading?

Aperge felt like it had it pretty spot on in terms of locality but probably overestimated.

The cloud was a shame today. Plume scenarios are risky.

As is always the case in the UK, high risk is high reward.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
25 July 2019 19:02:55

Is this 38.4C a confirmed reading?

Aperge felt like it had it pretty spot on in terms of locality but probably overestimated.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


None of the reputable Twitter sources I check are currently reporting it. TBH the whole thing is a bit of a shambles at the moment. Cambridge was more or less called as top dog with 38.1C earlier this evening.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
25 July 2019 19:04:34


 


None of the reputable Twitter sources I check are currently reporting it. TBH the whole thing is a bit of a shambles at the moment. Cambridge was more or less called as top dog with 38.1C earlier this evening.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agreed. It’s a total shambles. 


I assume BBC SE Weather quoted that number? 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
superteacher
25 July 2019 19:08:07


 


Agreed. It’s a total shambles. 


I assume BBC SE Weather quoted that number? 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


They must have got it from somewhere!

Hungry Tiger
25 July 2019 19:16:45

Saw on the BBC - Cambridge got it with 38.1C


 


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
25 July 2019 19:17:22

I think this is now a more or less comprehensive list of the 35C+ stations (Met stations plus airports), minus any manual additions later.



Cambridge NIAB 38.1C†
Cambridge Airport 38C^*
Kew Gardens 37.9C†
London Heathrow 37.9C
Writtle 37.7C†
Northolt 37.6C
Lakenheath 37.1C*
Benson 37.0C
London City Airport 37C^*
Luton Airport 37C^*
St James's Park 37.0C
Stansted Airport 37C^*
Mildenhall 36.9C*
Wittering 36.7C
Rothamsted 36.6C
Marham 36.5C
Cranwell 36.3C
Reading University Whiteknights 36.3C
Santon Downham 36.3C*
Woburn 36.3C*
Wellesbourne 36.2C
Holbeach 36.1C
Nottingham 36.1C
Teddington 36.0C*
Brooms Barn (Bury St Edmunds) 35.9C*
Langdon Bay 35.9C
Andrewsfield 35.7C
East Malling 35.7C*
Farnborough 35.7C
Cavendish 35.6C*
High Beech 35.6C*
Sheffield 35.6C
Stowe 35.6C*
Sutton Bonington 35.6C*
Bedford 35.5C*#
Frittenden 35.5C*
Manston 35.5C
High Wycombe 35.2C
Odiham 35.1C
Scampton 35.1C
Waddington 35.1C
East Midlands Airport 35C^*
Finningley 35C^*
Herstmonceux 35.0C
Lydd Airport 35C^*
Oxford Airport 35C^*
Southend Airport 35C^*




† Via Met Office - no overall max on public data sites


* Highest hourly reading


^ Value to nearest whole degree only


# Bedford weather station stopped reporting after 1pm reading, this is the highest value up to that point.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Cumbrian Snowman
25 July 2019 19:18:09

There should be numerous Climate Stations like mine that will report at 10am tomorrow. These are manual sites so will take a little while for full data to be confirmed 

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria 117m ASL
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk 
Follow me on Twitter 
Hungry Tiger
25 July 2019 19:24:47


I think this is now a more or less comprehensive list of the 35C+ stations (Met stations plus airports), minus any manual additions later.



Cambridge 38.1C (via Met Office - no synop)
Cambridge Airport 38C^*
Kew Gardens 37.9C (via Met Office - no synop)
London Heathrow 37.9C
Writtle 37.7C (via Met Office - no synop)
Northolt 37.6C
Lakenheath 37.1C*
Benson 37.0C
London City Airport 37C^*
Luton Airport 37C^*
St James's Park 37.0C
Stansted Airport 37C^*
Mildenhall 36.9C*
Wittering 36.7C
Rothamsted 36.6C
Marham 36.5C
Cranwell 36.3C
Reading University Whiteknights 36.3C
Santon Downham 36.3C*
Woburn 36.3C*
Holbeach 36.1C
Nottingham 36.1C
Teddington 36.0C*
Brooms Barn (Bury St Edmunds) 35.9C*
Langdon Bay 35.9C
Andrewsfield 35.7C
East Malling 35.7C*
Farnborough 35.7C
Cavendish 35.6C*
High Beech 35.6C*
Stowe 35.6C*
Sutton Bonington 35.6C*
Bedford 35.5C*#
Frittenden 35.5C*
Manston 35.5C
High Wycombe 35.2C
Odiham 35.1C
Scampton 35.1C
Waddington 35.1C
East Midlands Airport 35C^*
Finningley 35C^*
Herstmonceux 35.0C
Lydd Airport 35C^*
Oxford Airport 35C^*
Southend Airport 35C^*




* Highest hourly reading


^ Value to nearest whole degree only


# Bedford weather station stopped reporting after 1pm reading, this is the highest value up to that point.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Cheers Rob - Thanks for that info there.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


superteacher
25 July 2019 19:33:14
Is Teddington the same station as Hampton Waterworks?

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