Wednesday 4 Sep - Friday 13 Sep

Through the second half of next week, cool and showery west or north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Wet and windy conditions may develop more widely for a time. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Saturday 14 Sep - Saturday 28 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often most unsettled in the north and west

_________________________________

Saturday 31 August – Sunday 8 September

Rather unsettled and cool and times

On Saturday, an active front will bring heavy rain to western Scotland in the morning, with further rain for much of England and Wales through the day, while the far south-east will see some dry, bright and warm weather for a time. A chilly night will follow, with frequent showers for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and lengthy clear periods elsewhere. Sunday will be a cool day for all, with frequent showers and thunderstorms developing across north-western areas, while the south will be driest and sunniest. Many areas will be dry on Sunday night, although it will be particularly chilly as temperatures fall away under lengthy clear spells.

For much of next week, high pressure will remain to the south or south-west of the UK. On Monday, a front will bring further cloud and rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland, while the rest of the country will be dry with lighter winds and sunny spells. A warmer day in the south and south-east on Tuesday, where there will be a good deal of dry and bright weather, while it will remain wetter and cloudier in the west and north. A band of patchy rain will slide south-east overnight, leaving Wednesday as a cooler day with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps bringing a few rumbles of thunder. Thursday looks to be particularly chilly, with further heavy showers moving in on a north-westerly flow.

By Friday and next weekend, it looks more likely that an area of low pressure will impact the country. This will bring cooler, cloudier weather with a risk of rain for many areas on Friday and Saturday, although Sunday may see more widespread dry and calm weather.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 15 September

A few chilly days, but high pressure close-by

The following week may start off with high pressure lingering close to the UK, bringing a calm, largely dry and settled start to the week, perhaps with some overnight mist and fog. However, this isn't likely to last - with high pressure most often lingering to the west or south-west of the UK. As a result, northern and north-western Britain are most likely to see occasional north-westerly bursts of cooler air bringing some showers from the Atlantic, and could occasionally catch the odd frontal system, bringing more general cloud and outbreaks of rain.

Elsewhere, lengthier periods of dry and fine weather seem more likely, although they could occasionally be broken up by cloud and spots of rain approaching from the north-west. These sporadic bursts of cooler air are likely to keep temperatures slightly below normal across the north and north-east, and it will feel particularly chilly here in areas exposed to the showers and breeze.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 29 September

Pressure slowly rising across the country

It looks like high pressure will gradually become more extensive across the country from the south-west after mid-month, although this will be a rather slow process. During the third week of September, low pressure areas are perhaps more likely to impact Scandinavia than the UK, although they could occasionally extend their influence westwards towards our shores. While confidence is rather low on the exact timing and extent of these episodes, they could bring some cooler, cloudier and wetter weather at times, with blustery showers or outbreaks of rain perhaps more likely to impact northern and eastern areas. However, the proximity of higher pressure means some lengthy drier, sunnier and warmer interludes, with these perhaps becoming more frequent later in the week.

By the final week of September, it looks like high pressure will have a lengthier stay across the UK, and this should encourage more widespread dry, warm and fine conditions to develop as breezes more frequently come from the south-west. Areas of low pressure could quickly move east across the Atlantic, mainly close to Iceland, although some rather wet and breezy weather could linger across northern and north-western Britain. However, much of the country should still experience a dry and rather warm end to the month. Forecasting the British weather at this time of the year is made especially tricky by the development of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, and there is about a 40% chance that we will see a wetter, windier and cooler pattern lingering across the UK by the end of September.

Further ahead

Will the end of September remain as a reliable source of fine, warm and settled weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 5 Sep - Saturday 14 Sep

Through the second half of next week, a cool and showery north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather around, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Sunday 15 Sep - Sunday 29 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 6 Sep - Sunday 15 Sep

The weekend will stay unsettled and probably windy at first, with showers or longer spells of rain, probably soon transferring from the northwest to eastern parts of the UK. Drier, brighter and quieter conditions will probably become established in the west and northwest of the UK and slowly extend to other areas over the course of the weekend. It will most likely be rather cool with some chilly nights in any quieter interludes. Into next week, confidence quickly becomes low. However, it will probably start changeable and sometimes windy, particularly in the north. Some drier, brighter and quieter spells may develop across the UK as we go towards the middle part of the month. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below.

Monday 16 Sep - Monday 30 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Sunday 8 Sep - Tuesday 17 Sep

It should be a chilly and bright start to Sunday for many and remaining largely dry too. Cloud builds through the afternoon but there should still be some bright or sunny spells. Perhaps breezy with light rain in the far northwest. Next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Wednesday 18 Sep - Wednesday 2 Oct

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monday 9 Sep - Wednesday 18 Sep

A dry and bright start to the day in the southeast on Monday but turning wet and windy later. Morning cloud and rain in the northwest clears to sunny spells to end the day. The rest of next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Thursday 19 Sep - Thursday 3 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. Probably staying changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, so still some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

Cool
Changeable 

Tuesday 10 Sep - Thursday 19 Sep

Although a few showers may affect the far southeast during Tuesday, most areas will stay, dry with some sunshine for a time. Outbreaks of rain will move into northwestern areas through the afternoon and it will become windy, with a chance of coastal gales later. The remainder of the week is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there is a risk of gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times though.

Friday 20 Sep - Friday 4 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. It will probably stay changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, still with some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 11 Sep - Friday 20 Sep

Cloud and rain clear southeastwards during Wednesday with sunny spells and showers following. Winds will ease in the south through the day, but remaining windy in the north with a risk of local gales. The weather through the remainder of the week and the rest of the period is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Saturday 21 Sep - Saturday 5 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest, with the best of any drier and brighter interludes in the south and southeast. As we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October it could still be changeable with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, especially in the far northwest, but we could see some spells of drier and warmer weather at times elsewhere. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Ex-‘Dorian’ brushes by


• Warmer spell after mid-month


• Cooling after the Equinox

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/06/john-hammond-month-ahead-feeling-ripples-dorian/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled start, then turning more settled

_________________________________

Saturday 7 September – Sunday 15 September

A fine weekend, then unsettled at times next week

This weekend, most of the UK will have a lot of dry weather thanks to a nose of high pressure extending from the south-west. There will be periods of sunshine, too, although central and southern Britain may see one or two showers on Saturday morning. In the sunshine and with only gentle winds, it will feel quite pleasant for most but some North Sea coasts will have a chilly northerly breeze for a time on Saturday. By Monday the next frontal system will push in from the west, with a cold front bringing rain to most places, with some heavy bursts likely. The air behind the cold front will be from the northern Atlantic and actually a bit warmer than the polar air from the weekend, so temperatures will trend a bit closer to average. There is growing confidence that the remnants of Hurricane Dorian will stay near Iceland through the middle of the week while sending a cold front into the UK from the northwest. Again most places will see some outbreaks of rain. The main forecast uncertainty is regarding the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which is expected to move in around Thursday. There is potential for Gabrielle to bring in some very wet and windy weather on Thursday and into Friday, mainly for the northwest, but confidence is very low on this. Later on Friday and into the next weekend, high pressure looks increasingly likely to build in from the southwest, making for milder, calmer and drier weather for the weekend.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 22 September

Mostly dry and settled weather across the country

The high pressure that builds in over the weekend of the 14th and 15th will tend to become a more persistent feature heading into late-September, keeping things drier, calmer, and a bit warmer than normal. Low pressure tracks will likely be pushed off to the north closer to Iceland. The warmest air will likely remain locked in the Continent, but temperatures should climb to slightly above average for mid-to-late September for most places. However, early in the week there may be a few weak fronts that reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland as the high shifts slightly eastwards. The southern half of the UK should stay fine and dry though.

There is a chance that high pressure will tend to remain a bit further south and closer to Central Europe, allowing frontal systems to keep the northern and western parts of the UK wetter and windier, but this is only a small probability. September is the peak month for Atlantic hurricane activity, and although a hurricane directly impacting the UK is unlikely, we can still feel their effects as they alter the weather patterns in the northern Atlantic. This means that although there are good signals for high pressure now, confidence is perhaps a bit lower than normal as any strong hurricanes that develop can disrupt our settled weather, even from thousands of miles away!

Monday 23 September – Sunday 6 October

A pattern shift to more unsettled conditions

The high pressure area is expected to stick around for much of the rest of September, keeping things fine and dry for most of the UK. Heading into late September it looks like low pressure will begin to establish itself over Scandinavia with the high pressure centre shifting slightly northwest. This will mean occasional weak fronts may reach in from the north or northwest, and temperatures may cool slightly to be nearer to or a touch below average, especially in the north. A significant pattern shift is looking likely in October, with high pressure shifting further away from the UK allowing low pressure tracks to return from the north and west.

This will bring in more unsettled, wet and windy weather with large day-to-day variations more typical of October. There is some uncertainty on where high pressure may retreat to, and it is still expected to be nearby at times. This will mean that between the fronts, there will likely be one or two days of drier and more settled weather. Milder air drawn in from the southwest ahead of frontal systems will make for more changeable temperatures with some chilly days mixed in with some milder ones. Hurricane activity will still be at its peak until mid-October, so again, there is some inherent uncertainty in the forecast if any strong storms develop in the tropical Atlantic. Confidence is medium for the early October forecast, with a chance that high pressure may cling on for a bit longer before the weather shifts to a more typical autumn pattern.

Further ahead

How will the storms in the Atlantic affect our weather here? And will there be fine weather to end September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 12 Sep - Saturday 21 Sep

On Thursday, there will be wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of coastal gales in the north. The weather through the remainder of the period is likely to be rather changeable. There will be more periods of rain on the way, but these will be interspersed with drier and brighter interludes from time to time, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Sunday 22 Sep - Sunday 6 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably be unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, in between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-forecast-saharan-plume-to-bring-hottest-indian-summer-ever-with-highs-of-26c/ar-AAGYHt3?ocid=ientp

Friday 13 Sep - Sunday 22 Sep

Friday is likely to be dry and bright in the south, but windy with blustery showers in the north. The dry and bright conditions are likely to spread further north for next weekend, leaving just the far north with wetter and windier weather. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but chilly nights in the south may cause some early morning fog. By Sunday, daytime temperatures in the south could be somewhat warmer. The predominantly dry and bright weather may continue into the following week for much of the UK, though the far north is likely to keep more wind and rain. By the end of the week the situation becomes quite uncertain and there will be an increasing chance of wet and windy weather spreading southwards.

Monday 23 Sep - Monday 7 Oct

Confidence remains low during this period. However, the most likely situation is unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Coldest Winter in 30 years... Independent

One to bank?   Surprised i've only seen one of these 'predictions' 

Given we are only a week into September, I take this with a large dose of salt right now. If they are still thinking the same thing a couple of months from now and if other forecasters come on board, then we may be onto something.

Same story in the Mail

I love this quote - "Analysing current sea temperatures and weather systems over the north Atlantic scientists are able to predict what is to head our way in four month's time - and it's going to be very cold." 

Y'never know eh?

Even the Scotsman newspaper is running with that same story of another Beast From the East event in the aftermath of Brexit as shown here.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/snow-beast-from-east-weather-16884513

What?

That indeed, would be an even bigger story if that came anywhere close to coming off especially since it was within that same city, where that famous temperature record was set just over a month ago which resulted in that particular day being the UK's hottest day on record.

UK weather warning: -14C Arctic storm to submerge UK in snow - Beast from the East returns

THE UK is bracing itself for the worst winter temperatures in more than three decades, amid a prediction of -14C Arctic winds and a return of last year's Beast from the East.

Britain faces its coldest winter in more than 30 years, according to one of the most advanced forecasts in UK history. The shocking weather prediction shows a bone-chilling return of an Arctic weather blast, bringing with it one of the country's harshest winters. This means the UK could be set to see the return of the 'Beast from the East' as scientists warn temperatures could plummet to well below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1175418/UK-weather-warning-forecast-BBC-Arctic-Beast-from-the-East

Let's keep these silly stories coming it increases the chances of a mild winter 

Conversely if all of those stories were about a mild winter ahead such as what the Met Office had infamously and incorrectly forecast back in around 2009/2010, that might be what would boost our chances of a cold winter.

Here's the study the stupid weather stories are based on

http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf