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ballamar
29 October 2019 17:23:15

The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


if the block is in the wrong place the fronts could stall over UK - first battle of the season!

tallyho_83
29 October 2019 18:59:12

The beginning of November now starting to firm up on a wet setup, going to be some flooding issues for sure. Slight hints of something a little different mid month?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


Yes - mild wet and windy weather continuing sadly!! :/ - so it seems!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
29 October 2019 20:55:34

I hate November. The first dark month and not much too look forward to. The weather is rarely that interesting. December has Christmas and the chance of serious cold and thereafter as well as potential cold, the days get longer with time.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
beanoir
30 October 2019 06:53:37




1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


lack of charts and visuals! 


Langford, Bedfordshire
DEW
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30 October 2019 06:58:22

Friday's depression looks more significant than forecast earlier, then it's LP for the week following. FAX chart for Sunday different to other models with LP stretched out between two centres E-W, other models have it elongated N-S. In the week after that (from 10th) GFS goes for Scandi HP with ridge to Scotland and LP from France nibbling at the south, though GEFS has more widespread rainfall than I'd expect from that set up.


GEFS temps after brief burst of mild air to start the weekend, generally at or a little below average. Inverness snow rows back in double digits by end of run, other northerly UK stations not more than 2 or 3.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
30 October 2019 11:06:24


 


lack of charts and visuals! 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


 



 


I know some would take it to the extreme, but IMO we've gone too far the other way



Martin
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Heavy Weather 2013
30 October 2019 17:47:54
Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
doctormog
30 October 2019 18:51:45
I’m not sure about anything wintry but it does look like a persistently cool outlook at the moment with a more unsettled interlude at the weekend. There also seems to be more general non-specific hints at blocking in various places to our north or northeast.
ballamar
30 October 2019 19:04:58
Almost a clean split PV on ECM great if it could set up a cross polar flow. But good signs even if gone next few runs
idj20
30 October 2019 22:23:15

Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.


Folkestone Harbour. 
LeedsLad123
30 October 2019 22:52:36


Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Lack of desired weather will be partly to blame. Think we’re all a bit sick of unsettled weather!


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Caz
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31 October 2019 05:15:05


Looks like a widespread wind event with extensive gales and general rain across England and event on Saturday. While it isn't that exceptional stuff, I think that's going to ruin a lot of firework plans come the evening. 

A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.


Originally Posted by: idj20 

Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   


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Surrey John
31 October 2019 06:48:07

Looking at the 12z and then these

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I do get the feeling we could see a bit of a switch at short notice. The Ensembles have that ‘look’. Equally, they have certainly trended colder this week compared to Monday

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Those ensembles are very tight for next 7 days


Then more of a spread, but suggesting second week of November is going to be similar, with a few dawns where temperatures will see air frosts


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
DEW
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31 October 2019 07:31:19

LP for the coming week with centres mostly sited in England; perhaps a brief dry window midweek. After that, the ridging from a Scandi high becomes established (as previously noted) and slack LP over France. Quite a lot of NE winds.


No very great totals for rainfall in GFS, but generally wet this coming week, and drier next week (but not as much rain in the S as I'd expect from pressure charts) Temps going down to somewhat below average again for the coming week, and staying there for the majority of runs the week after though there's a lot of scatter developing by then - confidence low.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
AJ*
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31 October 2019 08:44:50


Have faith Ian!  There are a few who ignore the political bollocks.  I read this thread whenever there’s a new post and I read every one of DEW’s morning updates but I’m not conversant in model lingo, so I can’t contribute and I think there are a lot of others like me.  The winter migrants will start to post over the next few weeks though, so it’ll get busier in here!   


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Me too.  (It would be useful if this forum had the functionality to just upvote or recommend posts, but I realise that we have to use the software that is available and provided.)


 


The GEFS output for London is still showing wet weather until the 10th Nov, but at least there is a break for a day shown on the 6th.  Still, I shouldn't complain, as I know that it is good for the garden and our water supplies.  (And we do need it here.)


 


 


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
ballamar
31 October 2019 11:03:38
Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location
Russwirral
31 October 2019 11:16:23
As others have said - the last few runs of GFS looks like the Atlantic tries to get going (if not already) but reverts back to a blocked outlook, with an active atlantic being forced south to the med.

This is very encouraging, and something ive not seen for years - such resilience for blocking to rise from the ashes over and over.
Maunder Minimum
31 October 2019 15:08:24

Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.


Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
31 October 2019 15:09:15


A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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picturesareme
31 October 2019 16:15:39


 


Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.


Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂

Maunder Minimum
31 October 2019 19:26:49


 


I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Particularly snow, but not only snow. Any form of extreme and unusual weather for these islands, which includes (not exclusively) snow, more snow, heavy snow, blizzards and also ice days, heavy frosts, freezing fog, oh and did I mention snow?


Then there are strong gales, heatwaves, torrential rain, floods, hail, tornadoes (not many of them) and err snow (did I mention that?).


P.S. ECM 12Z looks interesting if you want to see some early signs of winter.


New world order coming.
ballamar
01 November 2019 07:16:56
Hints of high pressure building over Scandi again nothing too cold but nice to see the patterns there
DEW
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01 November 2019 07:25:07

Tomorrow/Saturday's depression now forecast to be deeper and more violent (not too strong a word given the wind warnings) than it was a week ago.


Otherwise no surprises - all the developments have been telegraphed for some time. LP over the UK for next week with a brief interlude on Wed, then drying up and HP for next week, moving in for the next week from the SW eventually linking up with Scandinavia. The LP on its southern edge now looks further off than yesterday, over the Med rather than over France, so a good chance of a dry second week for all even if the GEFS op run has occasional rainfall spikes (most GEFS runs don't)


GEFS continues cold for the foreseeable and with less scatter than yesterday; Inverness has an impressive array of snow row figures. Jet stream forecast consistent with all this, running south of the UK for the coming week, then breaking up into meanders.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
AJ*
  • AJ*
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01 November 2019 08:17:47


 Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?


 


 


And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Maunder Minimum
01 November 2019 08:28:10


 


I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?


 


 


And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).


Originally Posted by: AJ* 


This was one of them:


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/sulfur-spewing-russian-volcano-turning-sunsets-purple



New world order coming.
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